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Handicapping "Think Tank" technical handicapping and statistics

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 03-11-2008, 11:35 PM
cubfan2121 cubfan2121 is offline
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Default When to drop handicapper?

Just need some advice here.
I was very careful when picking a handicapper and following his plays to a tee. I had followed his free picks since june and in august he started charging for his plays. from june to december he was hitting between 57-60% with his play of the day. yes he had losing weeks but at the end of the monthy, he was doing very well winning 5-6 months. Even his losing month was at 49% which wasnt too bad.

But suddenly in december he went on a losing streak and went
6-11 (35%)in last half of december
18-12 for january (60%) which was typical so i thought he was usual self
11-16 in feburary (40%)
5-7 in march for (41%)

he is starting to come with excuses why he is losing and is getting away from his orginal philosophy of betting which seemed to make him successful in the past.

Other people have ripped him for similar reasons

So my question is how long do i stick with this guy?
im at the point where i was up over 10 Grand but now my account is down to zero

So im not in the hole - yet

any suggestions. unfortunaelty i paid for 3 months and have his picks until may
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Old 03-12-2008, 07:18 PM
(sportman) (sportman) is offline
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Fade the prick...
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Old 03-13-2008, 03:10 AM
dinque dinque is offline
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most touts lose.most squares lose.most touts are really squares who advertise.if you posted his picks here for free i would bet no one would follow them.unless you are beating the closing line consistently i would call it a day
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Old 03-13-2008, 10:54 AM
Bostongambler Bostongambler is offline
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What sportman said/
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Old 03-13-2008, 08:14 PM
tripleCs tripleCs is offline
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Cubfan2121, dinque is right in that most handicappers dont know what they are doing. A good handicapper doesnt fall below 60% ever, even on their worst month. Ive been betting for a long time and I am the only person I know that has posted a long term profit by doing so, you have to follow a system Now that may be a system that you can pick for yourself because you have a good eye for sports or you have to have an advisor for.

I would have gotten rid of the handicapper after the first month. The guy probably does not know what he is doing and sometimes he gets lucky. Ive been through several like this. They advertise high percentage wins but who is their to disprove them. I just came across a site that was selling picks for only $9.95 and they were saying that they were picking 87% winners. I find that highly unlikely.

My advice to you is to drop the capper and find someone else. Someone reputable and thats going to work hard for you as the client. I get all my stuff from a bunch of dudes down on the quarter. They sell individual plays for $19.95 and refund your money if the pick doesnt cover. When I first started with them I was just betting the single plays but then I became what they call a personally advised client and I now play a weekly flat fee and they work around the amounts I want to bet. They keep track of all the plays they give me and try to prevent losses in the future. Its a really good program, the best Ive ever come across. Look into it and look at other options as well.

Last edited by drunkguy : 03-13-2008 at 11:28 PM. Reason: no promotions please
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Old 03-16-2008, 04:26 PM
cubfan2121 cubfan2121 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tripleCs View Post
Cubfan2121, dinque is right in that most handicappers dont know what they are doing. A good handicapper doesnt fall below 60% ever, even on their worst month. Ive been betting for a long time and I am the only person I know that has posted a long term profit by doing so, you have to follow a system Now that may be a system that you can pick for yourself because you have a good eye for sports or you have to have an advisor for.

I would have gotten rid of the handicapper after the first month. The guy probably does not know what he is doing and sometimes he gets lucky. Ive been through several like this. They advertise high percentage wins but who is their to disprove them. I just came across a site that was selling picks for only $9.95 and they were saying that they were picking 87% winners. I find that highly unlikely.

My advice to you is to drop the capper and find someone else. Someone reputable and thats going to work hard for you as the client. I get all my stuff from a bunch of dudes down on the quarter. They sell individual plays for $19.95 and refund your money if the pick doesnt cover. When I first started with them I was just betting the single plays but then I became what they call a personally advised client and I now play a weekly flat fee and they work around the amounts I want to bet. They keep track of all the plays they give me and try to prevent losses in the future. Its a really good program, the best Ive ever come across. Look into it and look at other options as well.
Well i followed this guys picks for 6 months and he used to post his record consistantly. That is until he started on this skid. I sent him a message and posted his record on a different forum but he took it off. I think stuff like that must be bad for buisness. He sent me a messages explaining why took it off but i didnt really follow his logic besided him admitting that he will keep trying to produce winners.
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Old 03-17-2008, 01:56 AM
tripleCs tripleCs is offline
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Well the thing with that is that if you post their picks in the forums they lose potential clients because people have access to them for free then. Ive had experience in the past where handicappers had gotten mad when I posted their picks, not currently though with the people im with now. Another reason why they dont like you posting their plays is because they might have a bad day and then the people that see them might think that that is the way they pick all the time.
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Old 03-21-2008, 03:16 PM
cubfan2121 cubfan2121 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tripleCs View Post
Well the thing with that is that if you post their picks in the forums they lose potential clients because people have access to them for free then. Ive had experience in the past where handicappers had gotten mad when I posted their picks, not currently though with the people im with now. Another reason why they dont like you posting their plays is because they might have a bad day and then the people that see them might think that that is the way they pick all the time.
i have never posted any of his picks in any service plays on any forum. What i did was post his record which he should be doing anyways. My theory is post your record good or bad, not just when you do well for one week out of four
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Old 03-31-2008, 03:36 AM
Mort Mort is offline
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Who is the handicapper, if you don't mind my asking?
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Old 09-02-2008, 07:22 PM
Chillin1986 Chillin1986 is offline
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I would say after two weeks in football,after 7 days in baseball-basketball., anybody can have a bad weekend in football, so see how they bounce back...and how they take care of you...
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Old 09-03-2008, 03:31 PM
kenober kenober is offline
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In agree with that, people will llose, once in awhile or allot, but see if they win it back for you for free, and then if they lose again , switch, hopefully they bounce back...
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Old 07-02-2009, 08:42 AM
peskypup peskypup is offline
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I sense someone who is not really very good here. If his own confidence & ethics cannot accept that he needs to post up his record in good months and bad alike, then I personally would not want to follow him anywhere.
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Old 08-08-2009, 05:23 AM
plazake plazake is offline
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Thanks for replying, everyone. It appears we have a decent cross-section of people here and a lot of well thought-out discussion.
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Old 08-09-2009, 11:41 AM
GoBig GoBig is offline
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Here's a guy who has an audio of his picks Monday thru Friday and he tells you everyday how he did the day before and where he stands for the week. I'm telling you, he's pretty good, gives sound reasoning for each and every selection, and he's pretty funny on top of it. He's got a very smart delivery, always tells you how he's doing whether a good week or a bad one and here's the clincher....he's free! I found this site about 2 years ago and been listening ever since and now they are one of the books I play at (that's why they have this guy on their site to increase traffic so people will check out their site.....well, it got me as a customer for whatever that's worth).

Here is the link Click on the banner that says audio picks on the home page. He's on Monday (off Tues and Wed), Wed, Thurs, Fri, Sat, and Sunday. I hope this helps.

Last edited by Total Square : 01-09-2010 at 05:32 PM.
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Old 07-17-2010, 06:19 PM
pirate4life pirate4life is offline
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I usually test a handicapper with a very small test bankroll for a few months. If he has performed well then I would follow him with a real bankroll. When I decide to follow a capper, I always use a bankroll for him/her and I use their money management and play the picks with their advised units. If they lose the bankroll I drop them. Most of the touts don't even make it to my real bankroll as they fail during the test process. Only tout that I have been following consistently and successfully for a long period of time is bettingresource.com They won't get you rich overnight but if you have the patience, you can pile up a lot of profit in the long run. They treat this as a long term investment compared to all the other touts who chase and try to win it all in a day or week.
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