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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 12-20-2003, 07:46 PM
Ahead Ahead is offline
Join Date: Jun 2001
Posts: 1,616
Default ENOUGH of the smalltalk!....

HOW you all BET?

Let me start(well afterall Iīm the ORIGIN to this particular topic!)by saying I rate myself as a smalltime,seasoned(almost a decade now)bettor that foucuses on taking the raisins outta da cake.

I wonīt give away any limits...or HOW to spot that particular object to bet on...just cause it ainīt gonna be given away in just letters on an internet forum.I donīt have any particular limits to work with,just the betting object in itself.It sounds like flower power I know,but last couple of years(together with some SOLID new betting friends)has FINALLY learnt me less is more(both in accounts and Euros betted)

What Iīm trying to say is (I guess)...when you get your hands on an good OBJECT-then donīt bet the house...but atleast bet the spare room.IF you can single out the 20(TWENTY..or whatever) best BETTING OBJECTS in a year and bet accordingly...multiple accounts and so on...THEN----------YOU gonna be allright!!!,by far.

BE selective(advise number one).
Bet BIG on the right object(number two).
Be glad to reach alternative rate+ money put down on work as "year acchivement"!

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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 12-21-2003, 05:29 AM
ChuckyTheGoat ChuckyTheGoat is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2001
Posts: 12,628

Best wishes, Ahead. I'm not sure what you mean by "Object," though. Do you define one "Object" as one event? One game? If so, 20 is a pretty damn small # to base your year on.

GL to you.
"Talk is cheap"

Pearl Jam: "...hearts & thoughts, they fade away..."
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 01-06-2004, 04:05 AM
nehpets nehpets is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 8,685

once you start betting on 20 or so different leagues it starts getting hard to stay on top of every league.

I agree with betting big on the plays that you are SURE have a solid +ve expectation, but by big, not more than 5% of your bankroll unless you can are sure you can hedge the play at some point.

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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 02-20-2004, 05:06 PM
Ahead Ahead is offline
Join Date: Jun 2001
Posts: 1,616
Default RE:ENOUGH of the smalltalk!....

What Iīm saying is basically that the opportunity a punter has to being selective is the biggest ADVANTAGE we have.
I think most punters fails in the PATIENCE and Money Management department.I think must punters bets way too often.Too much and too often.
Patience,selfdiscipline and the opportunity to be selective is key factors,arenīt they?
Perhaps I was a little sloppy expressing myself earlier...I bet more than 20 times a year-but if you manage to spot those 20 bets a year where you ACTUALLY has a positive ROI...and making them count accordingly via bigger stakes-then those selective bets will have a huge impact on your bankroll over time.Doesnīt mean I rejecting pure flatbetting-just that it seems to work for me.
Another keyword there...over time.
Another one is staying flexible-and finding ones own way of trying to win over time.It seems to come naturally after a certain amount of time.Iīve tried some different approaches-but I always comes back to the original so to speak.Iīm through trying finding new angles.Iīm gonna stay with the one I think I have now.
I see many people on different forums plain out reject chalk bettors for example.That ainīt right.Thereīs no absolute method to this betting madness.Different people wins in different ways.I really understand that now,but it took years to REALLY realize it.

Really tough talking about those things arenīt it?
Whatīs right for one punter may very well be wrong for another.Itīs important to keep that in mind I believe.
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 02-22-2004, 03:56 PM
Join Date: Jul 2000
Posts: 263
Default RE:ENOUGH of the smalltalk!....

After reading the gambling boards for years and the racing boards lately I have come the same conclusion as Ahead that for the most part different approaches work for different "punters". I think about 80% of the posts on boards claim that flat betting is the best. Okay so if I could have gotten +4 on SA last night decided to wait and only +2.5 today(I am supposed to bet the same amount or reduce my bet?). A lot of people claim this works for them, who am I to argue. Moreover, the typical response to a varied unit approach is "how do you determine what is a 54% game, a 57% game or a 60% game. Well if you have to ask the question, you do not know the answer, then yes maybe some sort of flat betting approach is best for you. Personally, when it comes to betting I have made some major shifts in my approach. First off I have become very fond of a 1 to 4 unit approach to betting(personally I use 1 to 4% of my bankroll on these plays-but no law says players cannot use 1/2 to 2% of br on their plays). Just as a guideline a 4 unit would be a strong play with no weakness and no line weakness. A 3 unit play is a 4 unit play, maybe getting a worse line than I feel I should be getting or maybe some flaw or reason for concern. A 2 unit play might be a weaker play or a further reductions of a 3 or 4 unit play. A 1 unit play is simply a game I am not crazy about or a reduction of a 2 unit play. My theory is this. These plays I will likely not make much if anything on, but rather than root against it I just play it for 1 unit. If it loses I am glad I was smart enough to reduce it to 1 unit if it wins I am very happy to cash the ticket. The major shift I have made is that on my bankroll I am very slow to increase it(currently I am going with a 25% increase every time I win the bankroll). Now I realize this is very conservative and purposely so. First off I also have become fond of the Kelly betting scheme. I play on a much smaller bankroll for the Kelly scheme, knowing that if I am correct and not delusional about my projected %'s it will build to very large amounts no matter how small it begins and if I am delusional, well I lose a small amount of money on the Kelly, and hopefully hold my own on the main bankroll. Secondly, I think as a gambler it is a huge mistake to increase your bankroll dollar for dollar. A) You put a lot of pressure on yourself to constantly perform b) you do not reward yourself for a job well done in the name of retained earnings C) You are always one bad losing streak from giving a huge chunk of you entire br back. Lets ignore the Kelly approach for now and just focus on the main bankroll, Start with $1000, win $1000, now your bankroll becomes $1250 but your capital $2000, win another $1000, now the bankroll $1500, capital $3000(once you get to this point, you have a bankroll to spare so if you go on a servere drought, you still have a bankroll in reserve). The following is for "delusional" players like myself who believe 57 to 60% winners can be attained. The flaw in this approach is the fact you do not reward yourself enough if you are able to hit high percentages. That is why a pure Kelly approach(for maybe 30% of bankroll is a great strategy). Hit your expected high percentages and while you are grinding peanuts with your main bankroll, your Kelly becomes a huge amount of money. Obviously, if this were to happen you would get to the point where you have to look reshape your br's and it would be a little silly betting $40 on your main br and $1200 on your Kelly approach, but these are modifications you make if you ever reach this point. In the meantime you just want to make sure that you are staying in the game as you learn and refine your capping/betting tecniques-no matter how sharp you are today, you will be sharper next year and even sharper the year after that..... if you work at it.
AKA the honest tout
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 02-22-2004, 09:25 PM
vega007 vega007 is offline
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 3,091
Default RE:ENOUGH of the smalltalk!....

anytime I see a CFL side that I like, I plonk 180k down on it like lunch money
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