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Handicapping "Think Tank" technical handicapping and statistics

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Old 10-07-2003, 10:35 AM
Cincy Cincy is offline
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Default Key Numbers for College Football

Does anyone have information showing the % of time each margin of victory occured for College Football games (preferably over a long period of time such as 5 years or more)? I saw some good articles about key numbers for the NFL but could not find similar information for College Football. Thanks.
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Old 10-07-2003, 07:30 PM
Picksix Picksix is offline
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I'm not sure there are any "key numbers" in college with all the missed extra points and teams not being as familiar with each other like they are in the NFL.
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Old 10-09-2003, 06:10 PM
count zero count zero is offline
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1986-2001:

Line # Hits Pct
1 810 31 3.83%
2 1391 32 2.30
3 1472 75 5.10
4 1369 40 2.92
5 1218 28 2.30
6 1329 35 2.63
7 1439 67 4.66
8 1221 21 1.72
9 1024 15 1.46
10 946 40 4.24
11 821 11 1.34
12 745 13 1.74
13 898 12 1.34
14 884 26 2.94
15 760 11 1.45
16 678 14 2.06
17 667 26 3.90
18 581 6 1.03
19 448 6 1.34
20 465 11 2.37
21 460 14 3.04
22 442 9 2.04
23 401 9 2.24
24 340 20 5.88
25 294 7 2.38
26 247 4 1.62
27 266 2 0.75
28 236 9 3.81
29 196 1 0.51
30 172 3 1.74
31 175 6 3.43

Line -- includes all games where sides line was within one point of th nominal line. Thus, "8" means the line was 7, 7.5, 8, 8.5 or 9.

Hits -- how many times the favorite won SU by exactly the amount of the nominal line.

Pct -- percentage of the time that a hit occurs at the nominal line. So, for example, line 3 of the chart says that when the line is 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5 or 4, the favorite wins by exactly 3 5.44% of the time.

Hope this helps
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Old 10-11-2003, 08:31 AM
Cincy Cincy is offline
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Thanks Count Zero. You always seem to have the data. I would probably like to get some spreadsheets from you or find a good database that I could download.

I was actually looking for the % of time each margin of victory occurred. For example, how many games were won by exactly 3 points, etc. But the data you provided is probably more useful because it indicates the % of time the margin of victory occurred when the line was close. If you have the other data that just shows the % of time each margin of victory occurred that would be interesting to see.

Based on the 3 occurring 5.1% of the time, I would think it would be worth about 11 cents on the moneyline to buy a half point for pointspreads of 3 in College Football. Do you agree?

Also, would you happen to have similar information showing the number of occurrences and % of time each total points were scored for College Football games?
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