value of 1/2 run for baseball totals?

[manly]

I would assume it would be about 30 cents, anyone know for sure?

also, does this change depending on the number?
(e.g. 10.5 to 10, vs. 7.5 to 7?)

[j]

You can find a lot of talk and intelligent disagreement about his in the archives. Consensus seems to be from 70 cents down to 35 as you move from 7-12.

[manly]

tried "baseball" and "baseball totals", but no luck in the archives.

any suggestions?

[j]

manly,

I wasn't able to find it either. Probably was one of those good discussions that sometimes breaks out in a thread on an entirely different topic.

For what it's worth here are three of the things that always get said in discussions of baseball totals pricing.

1) Totals values are ballpark specific, and to a lesser degree day-night specific (worth a bit less during the day). Now whether run values are sensitive to these things depends on whether you think the linesmaker has adquequitely incorporated them into the set totals.

2) Since there can be no ties in baseball, odd totals land more than even and that makes the onto even numbers worth less than the onto odds.

3) The fact that the home team doesn't bat in the ninth if it's ahead reduces the game AB's by 3/54, and some people have formulas for factoring that in when their capping gives them a signal against the game line the home team will win.

[j]

Rereading my above post point one seems unclear. More runs are scored during the day, so runs may not be as valuable. Though the line-maker knows this, so the capping question is in what cases he does and doens't apply his knowledge correctly.

[grapefruit]

THE TOTAL 9 IS THE MOST VALUABLE I BELIEVE BUT I DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH EACH ONE IS WORTH, AND ANYONE WHO DOES KNOW I'M SURE WOULD NOT WANT TO REVEAL IT ON THE FORUMS

[nehpets]

It was on the forums
too long ago to view
RX

Runline-#games-Total Runs same as #of games-%

6 runline.--24 games--2 games--16%
7 runline--2580 games--275 games--10.6%
8 runline--5717 games--474 games--8.2%
9 runline--6298 games--622 games--9.9%
10 runline-4470 games--270 games--6%
11 runline-2084 games--179 games--8.6%
12 runline--459 games--20 games---4.3%

TOTALS: 21,632 games 1842 right on runline 8.5%

not sure on the accuracy ...found it somewhere a year ago and saved it.

[Mutant X]

an equation with a decent fit to nephets data would be

33 cents - 2*RL + 6 cents if moving onto or off an odd RL

RL would be the integer RL either moved onto or off

e.g. 6.5 to 7 ~ 25 cents
6.5 to 6 ~ 21 cents

[INVESTOR]

[INVESTOR]

Yes those low run totals can be profitable taking the 1.5.Depends on the number you get