ponder this ... staking question

nehpets · 02-22-2003, 01:00 PM

How much would you risk on a true even money proposition (eg. coin flip)
what % of bankroll...
if that prop was paying
a)+105
b)+120
c)+200

no scalping or hedging allowed.

I just read mach's answer in this thread and it probably helps
which of these 4 options is the best baseball bet
thanks again.

ChuckyTheGoat · 02-22-2003, 05:36 PM

Without adhering strictly to Mach's rule of thumb:

a) $0...+2.5% edge makes me think the expected gain isn't worth the volatility.
b) Maybe 2% of BR.
c) Up to 5% of BR.

The Actuary · 02-23-2003, 04:51 AM

Chucky how would your answer differ if the question was regarding sports bets and not coin flips?

ChuckyTheGoat · 02-23-2003, 06:18 AM

TA:

Obviously, like we've been discussing, it would clearly be a more conservative staking. Totally agree that there's a big difference when calculating odds on a closed system (coin flips, blackjack run on a super-computer) where replacement or true independent trials are part of the equation. Compare that to sports betting, where no matter how good you are, you're still banking on some pretty heavy assumptions.

Regarding my answer above, I have to admit that I'm a pretty conservative player. The idea of tapping out an allocated bankroll is much more foul than the positive ramifications of turning over a tidy profit. Just my outlook on things. I could see how someone else would rationally be willing to risk bigger %s.