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Handicapping "Think Tank" technical handicapping and statistics

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Old 02-05-2003, 07:30 AM
parlayin parlayin is offline
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Default Baseball dogs in 3rd game of series

Was mentioned in another forum that betting baseball dogs already down 0-2 in 3 game series may be profitable. Mathematical proof or just mere speculation?
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Old 02-05-2003, 07:40 AM
nehpets nehpets is offline
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think about it, u don't even know who the pitcher is going to be!
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Old 02-05-2003, 07:43 AM
nehpets nehpets is offline
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(that doesn't take into account line shopping)
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Old 02-05-2003, 01:33 PM
MudinyourEye MudinyourEye is offline
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I do recall a system which discussed this based on home team's winning percentage. Home team playing above .500 ball (overall??) rarely get swept. Would have to go through last season's stats to get numerical proof though; can do this over the weekend.
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Old 02-08-2003, 12:09 AM
parlayin parlayin is offline
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the line factors in the pitcher
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Old 02-08-2003, 09:04 PM
The Terminator The Terminator is offline
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Two words:

Arizona Diamondbacks
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Old 02-08-2003, 09:41 PM
Grandfather Grandfather is offline
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Arizona on the road last year in a 3 game series, after losing the first 2 games:

0-4 .....(Don't know how many times they were the dog though.)
@ Colo
@ LA
@ St L
@ San Deigo

Year 2001:
They were only in this spot 1 time, @ NY Mets, and they won game 3


Year 2000:

In this spot 4 times....record was 0-4.
@ Cubs
@ LA
@ Mets
@ St L
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Old 02-14-2003, 05:09 AM
mustaf555 mustaf555 is offline
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thanks Grandfather, really appreciate those trends.
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Old 02-24-2003, 10:42 AM
 
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This angle doesn't win. I know a guy who spent 3 years trying to find a baseball angle that wins. As a computer programmer, he was easily
able to test every imaginable angle through his 7-year database. The end result? He found NOTHING that consistently won.

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Old 02-25-2003, 04:57 AM
ChuckyTheGoat ChuckyTheGoat is offline
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Reno:

I enjoy your posts, but occasionally some of them could be construed as contradictory. I realize that "angles" aren't considered to be the same as a comprehensive analytical approach. But in my mind the two are fairly similar. In essence, we're talking about trying to isolate causal variables that tie data to future result projections. From that aspect, every angle historically could be deemed as having a positive effect on results, a negative effect on results, or a negligible effect that doesn't show any meaningful correlation to future results.

Maybe I'm getting my sports confused, but I seem to recall you saying that you and your programmer would be tackling baseball capping in the near future. You yourself say that you "found NOTHING that consistently won." If I'm interpreting that statement correctly, you're saying that you've already done the analysis and found absolutely nothing that looked like it would be profitable prospectively. Does that mean you won't be delving into baseball analysis and your "creative statistics" any further? Or are you really saying that nothing as simple as "dogs in 3rd game of series" was found to be profitable?

GL, man.
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Old 02-26-2003, 12:57 AM
The Actuary The Actuary is offline
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Chucky best of luck,

we've tried to get the difference between creative statistic and angle for quite a while.

but how about the odds of someone data mining coming up completely empty handed?

one thing clearly in defense of angles is that the most successful race bettors are database angle guys, with only a few exceptions.

the problem of changing odds and 30+% of the money coming in after the bell has made setting a line and betting it virtually impossible.

so I see no reason why if you can beat a 19% game with angles, you wouldn't be expected to beat sports.
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Old 02-26-2003, 01:20 AM
ChuckyTheGoat ChuckyTheGoat is offline
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Thx, TA. I can't see how those two terms are really that different. Angle, system, creative stat, they all conjure up similar ideas to me. The key, obviously, is that your sample has to be large enough, and your results have to be strong enough to imply future success.

Adios. More to ponder.
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Old 02-27-2003, 01:46 AM
 
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Chucky, we are close to finishing our preliminary regression-to-mean, correlation, and predictablility studies. Within 3 weeks we'll run our system, which will make a predicted score on each baseball game in our 6-year database. Making a better mathematical line, one closer to the final score than the betting line is what we're attempting to do. Trends, angles, and streaks, from all that we've seen and tested, are not the answer.
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Old 02-27-2003, 03:09 AM
ChuckyTheGoat ChuckyTheGoat is offline
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Fair enough, reno. Good luck w/ the testing.
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