an NBA 2nd half line today, which I thought was off
thought this 2nd half line was off...
dallas -4 for h2
were -3.5 for the game, behind 44-41 at HT, I thought NORL would surely be the SU faves from here on in.
any opinions or comments welcome.
and dallas won the 2nd half by 5 ...
and I find this one just as strange
PHI -5.5 for h2 behind 52-57 HT
were -3 for the game
I don't bet halftimes, so I don't follow this stuff very closely, but I do know that most sports do have a "comeback tendency", and that this is built into the line.
So in the first example, Dallas is -3.5 for the game. On the average, I'd guess that teams that are 3.5 point favorites are favored by about 1.5 or 2 points in the second half, but it varies depending on the score, so in any particular game the 2H line might be far greater or less than -2. Since Dallas was trailing and there is a tendency for trailing teams to come back, they should be favored by more than 1.5-2 points in this case. (And obviously if they had been ahead big, they would be favored by less than 1.5-2 points and might even be the underdog in the 2H line.)
The other thing to remember is that in this case, -2.5, -3 and -3.5 are all the same line, because the second half can't land on 3. (I'm assuming 2H lines include overtime, correct me if I'm wrong.) So you can think of -4 as being really only one point away from -2. Because Dallas should probably be favored by more than 2, so -4 looks pretty reasonable to me.
I have noticed the team winning at half has coverd the line for second half more than the other team "coming back".
do you have data to support that?
where's the best place to trade/bet the half time lines?
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