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-   -   making a 2nd half line? (http://www.majorwager.com/forums/handicapping-think-tank/111816-making-2nd-half-line.html)

nehpets 12-27-2002 01:05 AM

an NBA 2nd half line today, which I thought was off
 
thought this 2nd half line was off...
dallas -4 for h2
were -3.5 for the game, behind 44-41 at HT, I thought NORL would surely be the SU faves from here on in.
any opinions or comments welcome.

nehpets 12-27-2002 02:03 AM

and dallas won the 2nd half by 5 ...

nehpets 12-31-2002 02:51 AM

and I find this one just as strange
PHI -5.5 for h2 behind 52-57 HT
were -3 for the game

deepsouth 12-31-2002 03:25 PM

I don't bet halftimes, so I don't follow this stuff very closely, but I do know that most sports do have a "comeback tendency", and that this is built into the line.

So in the first example, Dallas is -3.5 for the game. On the average, I'd guess that teams that are 3.5 point favorites are favored by about 1.5 or 2 points in the second half, but it varies depending on the score, so in any particular game the 2H line might be far greater or less than -2. Since Dallas was trailing and there is a tendency for trailing teams to come back, they should be favored by more than 1.5-2 points in this case. (And obviously if they had been ahead big, they would be favored by less than 1.5-2 points and might even be the underdog in the 2H line.)

The other thing to remember is that in this case, -2.5, -3 and -3.5 are all the same line, because the second half can't land on 3. (I'm assuming 2H lines include overtime, correct me if I'm wrong.) So you can think of -4 as being really only one point away from -2. Because Dallas should probably be favored by more than 2, so -4 looks pretty reasonable to me.

Officer Mcfaddin- LAPD 01-06-2003 04:59 AM

I have noticed the team winning at half has coverd the line for second half more than the other team "coming back".


LAPD

Jack_straw 01-13-2003 07:24 PM

do you have data to support that?

Jack_straw 01-13-2003 07:25 PM

where's the best place to trade/bet the half time lines?


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