Success going against steam?

[Holy Bull]

Since the Mess Hall is devoid of intelligence and gambling related topics the last few days...thought i'd ask this here...

Its pretty well known that getting steam at the original price will show a profit.

My question is:
Has anyone ever tried making a profit or analyzed the profit potential of strictly going against steam? Seems to me when chasers get out of control and books get antsy for buy back, you can get just as much value on the other side, provided you stay away from the high success rate steam sports like college basketball. Would be interested in what the data has to say though.
A system like this has a lot more appeal to me than staring at Don's Best all day and trying to catch books moving slow.

[neilm]

I've talked to a BM about this and at some point will research it.

My assertion is that buyback at the closing # is profitable, he says it isn't.

[Picksix]

If getting Steam at the the original price is a winner, and buying back at the closing number is a winner, how sweet it is in the middle.

[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

[Pancho Sanza]

Its not profitable in the NBA, at least it wasn't last year.

[GottaWinToday]

THIS ONE SOUNDS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE. EVERYONE WOULD DO THIS, TRUELY THE LAZY MANS SYSTEM.................

This would Don Best, out of business......

[KingOfTheSquares]

The good thing about using a numeric system to rate the teams is: the steam can move the number into your bound to make a pick...and while I have not tracked this, it seems to usually be a good thing.

[Holy Bull]

<< THIS ONE SOUNDS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE. EVERYONE WOULD DO THIS, TRUELY THE LAZY MANS SYSTEM.................

This would Don Best, out of business...... >>



I'm not referring to just betting the closing numbers blindly. I'm speaking more in terms of finding a subset where you think the tail end of
steam is vulnerable. Some of these NBA totals for example move 5 or 6 points. Its just hard for me to believe that there is no value in the
buy back alone after such a drastic move.

[neilm]

One thing that must be factored in is why did the line move?

If its injury, weather etc. then there is little value in playing the closing number in that it has these factors in the closing line, that may have changed from teh opener.

However in a game where nothing changes materially except the line, the larger the move the more liklihood that it has overshot its target.

[alysheba88]

What about the steam success rate on the closing number? Not buying back?

Would think like anything that those that get in at the "top" of the market get the worst of it. Is that the case?

[GottaWinToday]

Sometimes "steam" is corrupted, if "steam" means there is sharp money going down......I think we all know this in this forum but at the book, just before the game starts the gamblers there react in putting the money down.......

It's just fun to remember these things.......

I remember a guy putting down 22K on an obscure Knicks NBA game just before tipoff.........It was all in the open at the book so everyone there knew this just happened and we had a run on that bet........And all it was, was a runner laying off for back east or whatever, had nothing to do with the Knicks winning but everyone in the book went wild, thought it was sharp money......

Another one was an Asian, I think Chinese, put 28K on an obscure baseball game MLB and the same thing happened, everyone thought we had something here. Turned out this was a layoff bet also and did not have much to do with who won or lost..........

It was very interesting in Vegas, I might go back, I miss it a little.............

Didn't add much to the tread but I had fun remembering............Oh yes, and NO TIP........


GottaWinToday

[The Actuary]

Bull,

Some qualifications,

1)Second half of the season
2)Not news/injury related
3)If the steam is on a fav. or over
I think this would be a good start.

TA