How valuable is 1.5 to 2 pts in footbal and basketball??

Peckle · 11-07-2002, 03:24 PM

It's tough trying to find 1.5-2 pts better on the line b4 gm time but I'm pretty sure I can find 2-10 pts value halftime every weekend...

Will I win in the long run if I bet into gms that offer at least 2 pts from the closing line???

A buddy of mine told me getting 2 pts better than the closing line will net me 57% winners??

The Actuary · 11-07-2002, 07:24 PM

I'm pretty sure in most instances 1.5 points will make you a winner on sides in the NBA, not sure about the rest.

brett · 11-08-2002, 04:23 PM

Depending upon what sides you are on, getting 1.5 pts to the best of it will make you a winner in pro hoops. Now if the sides are just 'vanilla', meaning just sides where you find line variance it might take you awhile to show a profit, but it should happen over a 150 to 200 game sample. I don't think you will net 57% winners, but I wouldn't be surprised if you hit near 55%, which is still excellent.
Football is a little trickier, because every # has a different value. For instance the difference between gettting +16.5 and +15 is much less than getting +7.5 instead of +6. But even at 'unkey' #'s getting 1.5 pts. to the best of it should show you a profit, albeit a long, long grind. This might take an entire season and I would think that you might net 53 to 54% winners all things being equal. Enough to show a profit, but also enough to severly test your discipline and patience!

Peckle · 11-12-2002, 04:49 AM

Thanks for the replys Brett!!!!

I feel so stupid after the jet's sunday night gm...The local here had jets -2.5 and i was contemplating buying a 1/2 offshore for 3.5.... by the time i decided, the local had closed the action and it was too late...

not only that, i felt a major letdown after the carolina panthers gm in the morning...[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-frown.gif[/img]

brett · 11-13-2002, 02:44 AM

Peckle,
Unless you play at an out I don't know about, there is no where offshore where it is worth buying off the '3'. The '3' in the NFL is worth somewhere around 27 cents. The best that you will do is -130 and that is tough to find. I have given up on buying around the '3' and simply pass if I don't get the value I desire. I do try to side games from time to time, but usually only on speculative line movement. I'll lay 1.5 and take back 3, but that is the extent of it. While the '2' doesn't carry alot of value the fact that it is a middle gives me enough value to have a slight edge, albeit a very small one. When playing 1.5 - 3, I am invariably looking for the '3' to land and catch a "side".

bamboo · 11-14-2002, 01:10 PM

i don't understand why people try and middle if they've already got the right side, the only time i would do it is if the line is coming back the other way, apart from this situation i don't believe it's worth it.

brett- could you elaborate on this statement, i'm not if im on the same page.

<< there is no where offshore where it is worth buying off the '3'. The '3' in the NFL is worth somewhere around 27 cents. The best that you will do is -130 and that is tough to find. >>

XCapper · 11-14-2002, 08:30 PM

Peckle,

Brett is right about different key numbers having different values.

Click NFL Scoring Data 1996-2002

Picksix · 11-15-2002, 11:21 PM

XCapper,

Thanks for the info.

miaplus3 · 11-17-2002, 04:29 AM

5dimes sunday football example (gb vs minn)
gb can be bet at:
-7.0 @ +100
-6.5 @ -110
-7.5 @ +113

those are outstanding options, or am i missing something??

brett · 11-20-2002, 03:47 PM

laying 6.5 and taking +7.5 is about a break even proposition. But I will fire away on this middle under certain conditions:

1)If the total in the game is below 40.
2)If I have reduced juice on one side, like -6.5 @-107 and +7.5 @-110
3)If I can make the 6.5 a 6 or the 7.5 and 8.
4)If I lost 30 or more units the day before[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-disgusted.gif[/img]

** % wise this is supposed to be around a break-even middle, but I think that it might have a positive expectation if plucked at the right times. Back in 1998 when I was still a little square, I played these and would even lay -120 on the one side sometimes and I profited playing these for the season. But I wouldn't suggest that. But games will migrate back to the key #'s of '3' and '7' easier than in the past because of the two point conversion and conservative coaches.

11-27-2002, 07:54 AM

It behooves every bettor to learn exactly how much every point in every sport is worth. Because the '3' in the NFL has been discussed ad nauseum in this forum, every BM--most of them total numbskulls and lazy hedonists--now knows its value, and therefore that's now reflected in the betting line. Anything discussed in these forums educates the BMs and LVSC.

Jeff K · 12-07-2002, 12:09 AM

I charted this years ago, and found each 2 pts was worth a 5% increase in overall results. I believe this held true for both FB and BB.

Jeff K · 12-07-2002, 01:01 AM

Here's this year's stats for FB.

NFL Rd Fav 44% (+2 - 50%)
NFL Hm Fav 43% (+2 - 53%)

CFB Rd Fav 51% (+2 - 56%)
CFB Hm Fav 51% (+2 - 54%)

count zero · 12-07-2002, 01:54 AM

My NFL data (1983-present) shows that it's closer to 4 points of improvement in your winning percentage for every point added to your team's score. My code was kind of a kludge, and I didn't check anything, so maybe I messed up. Anyway, as brett pointed out, the line is the key -- haven't broken down the results, but it's obvious the point from 2.5 to 3.5 is huge and the point from 7.5 to 8.5 is tiny. For foots, you'd need to create a chart where you could see the value of each particular point rather than a point in general.

buckeye · 12-13-2002, 05:46 PM

<< Peckle,
Unless you play at an out I don't know about, there is no where offshore where it is worth buying off the '3'. The '3' in the NFL is worth somewhere around 27 cents. The best that you will do is -130 and that is tough to find. I have given up on buying around the '3' and simply pass if I don't get the value I desire. >>

I completely agree with brett about not buying off of "3"s to create middles. But I disagree that IF you were going to play a game at -3-110, and the assertion that a hook is worth 27 cents is correct, that -2.5-130 is a bad buy. Wouldn't a -2.5-130 be worth buying since you are paying only 20 cents(more) for a hook that is WORTH 27 cents(more)? If 27 cents is the value then -137 is the comparison point ( not -127 ) on whether to buy off of it, isn't it?

The other "aspect" of buying considerations is why you were playing that line to begin with. Were you playing the -3 because you had it at -7? If so, then should you value the hook at what it is worth off of "3" or what the chances of a -3 landing off of YOUR -7 line is? I think that is why many disdain buying points because they already feel the line is soft off of their projected line so buying a hook more ( for seemingly exhorbitant juice ( often IS exhorbitant compared to worth ) ) appears counter-intuitive when you have 4 pts the best of it to begin with IYO! For me, admittedly no great capper in FB, I am more willing to consider buying in these spots as my -7 isn't likely any great shakes or more accurate and if I can get a 27 cent hook for 20 cents ( or better yet 15 ) that doesn't sound so bad to me!

JMHO

Jeff K · 12-13-2002, 09:42 PM

I always buy on/off 3, when possible, and pick up 4-5 wins/pushes per season. In the NFL playoffs and SB, I'll even buy on/off 7, 10, and 14 (same for the Bowl games).

brett · 01-24-2003, 09:21 PM

When I said the "3" is worth 27 cents, I mean total. So if an offshore makes you lay -130 to move it, then he has a 10% advantage over you if you do it. Now in some games, it still might be worth the buy to 3 if it is expected to be a defensive struggle where points are less likely to accumulate.