Q: Anyone have stats on whether it is better to bet moneyline dogs up to 1.5 pt v. taking the points?

[turkoman1963]

In other words, I'm looking for stats on, say, a basketball season, is it more profitable to bet dogs of + 0.5 to 1.5 to even 2, versus always taking the points?

For me, in my limited betting so far, it HAS BEEN, but I'm wondering what the outcome would be over a longer sampling. Thanks!

[Picksix]

Turk, This is also off the top of my head.

I went back a couple years and found that it is far less likely to have an NBA game land on 1 then a NCAA game. I'm not sure why? Maybe it's because NBA games seem so structured toward the end of the game. It seems like when they do have a buzzer beater it is a shot that goes in when the game is tied to give them a win by 2 or 3. In college, the kids just aren't as organized during crunchtime, and maybe thats why it leads to more 1 point games.

[Machiavelli]

When I did the research last year, I found the same thing as Picksix, that "1" is not the best number for the NBA.

Based on this old research, I would prefer PK +105 to +1.5 -110, and Pk +115 to +2 -110 (2nd one is really close IMO, because "2" is much stronger).