Anyone got any stats for h1 compared to h2 scoring

[nehpets]

Guess this question is valid for football and baskets ...


Saw yesterday the Dallas GState game
total for h1 = 104.5
total for game = 206.5

initially I was thinking h1 should be lower than half the game total since:
h1 has no chance for OT
game does have chance

anyone got any stats for h1 compared to h2 scoring ... with and without OT's

[Picksix]

nephets, This is just off the top of my head.

As far as the lines go, I believe last year almost all NBA games were split evenly(game total 200=1st half 100)I think there were a couple teams that would be a little higher in the 1st half(Atl and Sac come to mind) In college hoops it seemed to be about a 10 point difference. If the game total was 150, the first half would be 70 and the 2nd usually 80.

I would guess college is higher in the 2nd half because fouling at the end of the game is a lot more common than in the NBA.(Longer shot clock and bad free throw shooting make it an option) Also NBA games seem to slow the pace a ton if the game is close, maybe that helps make up for the possiblity overtime.

[Pancho Sanza]

nephets,

h2 is slightly lower scoring due to:

- teams with large leads running out the clock in Q4
- fatigue = lower fg %

[Picksix]

Interesting, I would think games that are blowouts have higher scoring 4th quarters than ones that go down to the wire.

In a 15 point game or higher it is pretty much mop up time when they run up and down. If it is maybe within 7 or 8, I would think teams would be more likely to try and milk the clock, although they would also be more likely to foul too.

Here are a few of tonights lines, they seem to be even 1st half vs 2nd half.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

B 9 11/5 SEATTLE AT HOUSTON (8:35 pm ET)
Wager Id Outcome Points
5009 SEATTLE -1.5 Closed
5010 HOUSTON +1.5 Closed
5109 OVER 176.5 Closed
5110 UNDER 176.5 Closed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

B 11 11/5 GOLDEN STATE AT SAN ANTONIO (8:35 pm ET)
Wager Id Outcome Points
5011 GOLDEN STATE +11.0 Closed
5012 SAN ANTONIO -11.0 Closed
5111 OVER 187.0 Closed
5112 UNDER 187.0 Closed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

B 13 11/5 ATLANTA AT DENVER (9:05 pm ET)
Wager Id Outcome Points
5013 ATLANTA -4.5 Closed
5014 DENVER +4.5 Closed
5113 OVER 181.5 Closed
5114 UNDER 181.5 Closed
5213 ATLANTA PICK -180 Closed
5214 DENVER PICK +160 Closed

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
B1 9 11/5 (1ST HALF) SEATTLE AT HOUSTON (8:35 pm ET)
Wager Id Outcome Points Money Line
5309 SEATTLE -1.0 -110 Closed
5310 HOUSTON +1.0 -110 Closed
5409 OVER 89.0 -110 Closed
5410 UNDER 89.0 -110 Closed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

B1 11 11/5 (1ST HALF) GOLDEN STATE AT SAN ANTONIO (8:35 pm ET)
Wager Id Outcome Points Money Line
5311 GOLDEN STATE +6.5 -110 Closed
5312 SAN ANTONIO -6.5 -110 Closed
5411 OVER 93.0 -115 Closed
5412 UNDER 93.0 -105 Closed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

B1 13 11/5 (1ST HALF) ATLANTA AT DENVER (9:05 pm ET)
Wager Id Outcome Points Money Line
5313 ATLANTA -2.5 -110 Closed
5314 DENVER +2.5 -110 Closed
5413 OVER 90.5 -115 Closed
5414 UNDER 90.5 -105 Closed

[The Actuary]

NCAA Baskets second half there is slightly more scoring but it is reflected in the lines.

[Picksix]

Just thought I'd throw this out there.

As I said earlier, most college hoop totals will have a line that is about 10 points higher in the second half than the first.

One school that always seemed to go the other way was Duke. Since everyone of their games is on TV, I started to notice a trend, they would build a big halftime lead and come out playing hard at the start of the second half, and then around the 8 minute mark they would spread the court and stop putting up as many shots as normal. One other reason they seem to have lower than normal 2nd halves is when their scrubs go in the game, they play the same way as the regulars. Coach K doesn't want to see jungle ball, he expects all his players to run the offense and not get out of control.

I first noticed this when I had over in a couple Duke games and I was way ahead of pace at the half, only to have them score something like 6 points in the last 7 minutes of the game. At times it seemed like there were only two shots going up per minute,1 for Duke and 1 for their Opponent. I learned from that, I got wsex on the interactive a couple times, I also would just bet Duke over in the first half and depending on the score of the game, I would bet under in the second half.

I found Duke scores of the last year and a half when they won the game by 10 or more points(probably 85% of the games they played). Most of these games they scored more in the first half than in the second, but there were a few that were way higher in the second, maybe because the opponent continued to foul or because Coack K was trying to send a message.

Here are the scores:
1st-2nd
52-32
46-45
39-40
28-32
47-46
48-49
48-42
49-59
48-47
27-53
50-48
48-39
42-52
46-42
61-42
48-51
45-31
58-46
53-53
46-46
48-45
51-53
41-41
47-49
41-39
37-67
49-34
41-37
49-38
51-47
46-49
67-24
47-46
45-57
59-45
52-45
63-45
52-47

I'm not sure how much of this is factored in by the linemakers. I would think they use a pretty general formula to figure out half time totals, not specific for each team? Duke has a totally new team this year and won't be as dominant. Maybe Coach K will allow his players to run it up a little more, but I'm sure there will still be some good opportunities to make some money.

[The Actuary]

<< I'm not sure how much of this is factored in by the linemakers >>



I had to LOL only because the guy that told me the second half is higher scoring is a linesmaker, and he assured me it's already in the number.

I don't follow NCAA baskets at all, so I really never looked at it to see if he was pulling my leg, but I think he's been a pretty good source for info. whenever he shares, so I just accepted what he said as truth.

BTW if TMAN didn't mail, he said NP to use the address I gave you.
TA

[Picksix]

TA, Thanks for e-mailing TMan. If I get in a couple more good arguments I will have 500 posts in no time, and then I'll be able to start using the pm feature.

&lt;&lt; I'm not sure how much of this is factored in by the linemakers &gt;&gt;

I was reffering to Duke's style of slowing down the pace of the game in the 2nd half. I think ALL college games have a higher total in the second half, it appears that Duke's should actually be lower.