Can someone explain the kelly criterion to me???

Peckle · 11-05-2002, 08:42 PM

Can I lose money in the long run if I could get 1.5 to 2 pts better than the real line??? I'm seriously considering bettin with the locals here b/c they are slow to move lines...

Let's say I put aside 50k for this experiment... what should my avg bet be if I find value in the lines??

I think my fatal flaw with sportsbetting is bad money management!!! So far I'm up for the season, but I truly feel like I would be up alot more if I didnt chase and bet stupid amounts on gms I had no clue whatsoever....

A friend of mine told me I should just bet into the slow moving locals... only bet on lines where I get at least 1.5 on sides and 2 on totals...

Is this what Mark Del meant by "vulures" betting steam or BW moves before the line changes??[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

Picksix · 11-05-2002, 09:11 PM

Peckle,

I think anytime you can get on a steam at the original number it is a good play. If you are talking hoops when you say 1 1/2 on sides and 2 on totals, that is huge. If you are talking football, (sides and totals)I don't think it is that great of a deal, unless you are crossing 3 or 7.

Anything that seems to good to be true, probably is. I doubt any local will continue to let players beat them up on steam plays. They may be slow now, but I would think they would catch on before too long. All it takes is a few times when you get something like the Clippers +7 against the Lakers, and then 5 minutes later he hears Shaq isn't playing, and the line goes to 3.5.

Peckle · 11-05-2002, 09:50 PM

Thnx for the reply picksix!!!![img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

There are some locals who like to inflate totals....

I also found -3.5 with the locals when it's +2.5 to +3 offshore on football gms...

the only bad thing w locals here is I can;t get lines until 30 mins b4 gm time... The funny thing is the locals here are making a KILLING this football season!!!! With slow lines and all, they keep winning ....
Does it mean they have a bunch of squares betting???

You know what....this is on top of dealing 5 cent lines!!!!![img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-shocked.gif[/img]

brett · 11-08-2002, 04:33 PM

You can never, ever, ever, have enough slow local outs. There are invaluable. Bet the steam with them, get the money. Get limits decreased or booted altogether and then move on to another.

Bostongambler · 11-09-2002, 01:36 AM

Brett my motto exactly... Ma and Pops shops still exist for the local guys who don't follow steam but rather play the local teams or the chalk... Can't tell you how many times I infiltratored one... They catch on and get mad. After all they are used to taking money not paying out. Try using a beard for my action and they see right through it.. HEY THESE AREN"T YOUR PLAYS... So you move on to another friend who has a man... A few months later on to someone elce.... Well you get the picture.

Bostongambler · 11-09-2002, 01:50 AM

Take tonight for example; Now even most slow locals would of changed the 76's from 4 to 7 or close to it.... But this one local still had them at 4 at about 7:03. He also had the Orl. total still at 197 right before tipoff... So when I call him tomorrow I expect him to yell at me that I knew the lines had changed.... So I will reply with the same thing I always say " What do you want me to give you the line and then bet it". Oh well..

Pancho Sanza · 11-09-2002, 02:29 AM

Serves them right, they love to tell you how proud they are of being old school and not even owning a computer etc.

Just think hom much money they could save themselves even if they had the delayed don best service, they could move their numbers properly and avoid steam plays.

they don't look so smart now without computers do they?