Anyone ever just look at games that land far,far way from the spread/total

The Actuary · 11-04-2002, 03:27 PM

In any sport has anyone ever just looked at something like the top 5% of all games decided by the most points vs the spread or total and tried to develop some common factors?

Picksix · 11-05-2002, 01:02 AM

I'm still trying to find out what factors make the game land on or near the number. Besides the line being 3 in the NFL.

It would be nice to know if there are any common factors. If I had to guess, I would say games outside your confrence or even outside your division are less likely to land near the number than a game against someone you play twice a year in the NFL. I would also say every college football game. My last one is college and pro hoops the first 2 months of the year compared to the 2nd half of the season. The hoop one for sure happened the last couple years.

rabbit · 11-05-2002, 02:47 AM

Did a quick check of the 2001 NFL season. Seven games missed the spread by 31 points or more. One thing that stood out was that the losing teams turned the ball over a lot more than the winners. The Peyton Mannig Colts lost three of those games, and in two of them he threw three picks.

count zero · 11-05-2002, 05:32 AM

I was on a board last year where there was a brief attempt to look at NFL outliers Nothing much came out of it. As rabbit says, turnovers seemed to be the only common element, but not sure you can extrapolate turnovers.

Hey, rabbit, where've you been?

rabbit · 11-06-2002, 03:22 AM

Licking my wounds. Zigging when I should've zagged. Nothing serious, but in the red, unfortunately.