Wind conditions

[Comp Fan]

I was reading an email that Rob Gillespie of BoDog/BigBook sends out. This one was about "totals". In it he made some good points, one of them was that in FB games the wind is a very important factor. Altough I have thought about cold/rain vbefore, I never really put much stock in wind conditions. This made a lot of sense to me. What I know would like to know is - HOW DO I USE THIS INFO TO MY ADVANTAGE? Is there a way to get a wind report and do you think that the bookies would already have this info factored into their price?

Any help is appreciated - AS ALWAYS!!!

[count zero]

Rain is a two-edged sword. If the downpour is torrential, that probably inhibits the passing game, but not as much as you might think. And when the rain stops, the wet field gives the receivers a big advantage while slowing the run game, thus inducing teams to pass a lot more.

High winds are almost impossible to pass effectively in and IMO are the best weather thing to look for. The problem is whether high winds predicted hours in advance of kickoff will actually be blowing for a significant portion of the game. Unfortunately, I have no wisdom to offer on how to deal with this. Another factor is that certain stadiums are more susceptible than others; just because conditions are windy in the home team's city doesn't mean they're windy on the field. All this said, my undocumented, anecdotal observation is that if you can ascertain that winds in excess of 25 MPH will likely be blowing for a significant part of the game, the game is a good under bet even if, as is likely, the books have already cut the line against the under.

KOTS is a weather freak, maybe he'll have some useful info.

[Machiavelli]

On the topic of wind, I asked this question before in the Mess Hall and didn't get an answer, so I'll try again.

For baseball, there is a standard wind report that is on Don Best, yahoo's in progress boxscore, ESPN's boxscore, etc. But, for closed stadiums like the Vet, it is a pretty well known fact that the ball will carry in the opposite direction of the prevailing wind at the top of the stadium.

My question is, does the wind report already take this effect into account?

[KingOfTheSquares]

Mach: the answer is NO. For example the historical wind profile at Dallas has been shown to be high from NFL figures, but we all know the field is almost totally enclosed, so they must measure it outside the structure. However that said, there is so much variation from stadium to stadium that data from some stadiums are almost worthless...and it seems to be the same smuck taking the readings every game for certain years.

And while wind is very important to the game, it is damn near impossible to predict...unless it is a hurricane situation.

Bad WX and totals ...well, the Count has said it pretty well, the line seems to drop to account for it nicely...

[Comp Fan]

Thanks for the answers fellas. Oh well....back to the "getting an edge drawing board" [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

[brett]

Historically, bet bad weather situations UNDER. The line drop in the total is rarely enough to take away the value. You often here all this baloney about its an advantage to the offense because they know where they are going and the defensive backs don't. Yes there have been many occasions where bad weather games have gone over the total, but % wise you will be way ahead of the game by sticking to UNDERS in these situations. I've done this over the years and have profited nicely in these situations. Bet UNDER even if you don't get the opening #.

[KingOfTheSquares]

Brett:

'94-'01 games

temperature 0-45 126 under / 145 over z:1.154 Avg total: 40.82 Avg line: 39.06 54% overs

rain, all games: 53 under / 43 over z: -1.021 Avg total: 39.38 Avg line: 39.18 45% overs

rain,temp 0-45: 9 under / 14 over z:1.043 Avg total: 41.52 Avg line: 37.48 60% overs

snow: 8 under / 13 over z:1.091 Avg total: 40.14 Avg line: 38.71 62% overs

so, unders being winners is largely a myth for poor WX games.

[cash]

KOTS:

Can you elaborate for winds ..these are the under
values imo.

thanx AE

[KingOfTheSquares]

Winds 10-50 mph, all games '94-'01: 343 under / 335 over z:0.307 Avg total: 40.06 Avg line: 39.59 over win %: 49.4%

if you raise the bound to 18-50: 65 under / 53 over z:1.105 Avg total:39.13 Avg line: 39.44 over win%:45%

Data above 18 mph is sparce and extremely variable stadium to stadium. You get a lot fewer games and still not much real advantage as a z of 1.00 is not nearly enough to warrant much of a risk. Bottom line out of all the wind data is that it is so flaky that I would NOT put any of my money at risk based on it alone. Plus, the forecasting of wind is still a black art. By my observations, over 50% of the time, the stated wind condition posted by the weather channel (for example) is off by 5 mph or more from the NFL figures.

[The Actuary]

I think what Brett posted carries alot more weight in college where the totals are not constricted to such a small range. Plus, they do not have as much experience in the off track, less turf fields, smaller stadiums more open to the elements etc.....

TA