How many of you maximize matchplays on big dog $line scalps?

buckeye · 10-18-2002, 08:02 PM

This question has been discussed many times on boards but how many actually do this to maximize the matchplay alone, then use the money to bet other things or collect it instead of just playing a normal play with the matchplay? I've done both, but I'm curious what most of you do!

GL

Pancho Sanza · 10-18-2002, 08:26 PM

I usually bet 1/2 the amount of the match play elsewhere, giving me 50 cents on the dollar.

I try to get catch a middle by looking for a different line too.

there may be a more effective way of utilizing it, but I'm too lazy to bother.

Machiavelli · 10-19-2002, 12:56 AM

3 team parlays usually for me.

buckeye · 10-19-2002, 05:09 AM

As much of a parlay freak as I can be, I'm not sure I follow you Mach. I respect your accumen a great deal but that is just playing it normal without trying to convert it into the most cash possible, IMO!

What I am saying is that the perfect scenario is this:
You have a $100 matchplay. You bet it on a +1000 tennis dog at that out and by some miracle find the bet at -900 the other way elsewhere and bet 900 there. So now you've converted it to 100 instead of the 50 it was more worth to begin with if you bet it on a spread line. Yes the scalp helped offset the vig/juice loss but the higher the line and scalp the better your "conversion rate". Then the 100 is free and clear and yours. Even if you can't scalp it and play the other side 925 on a -1100 line or whatever mix you use to get close to 100 either way or even bet the 1000 and bet the dog won't bark and leave you with having converted to zero. The higher the odds the closer you are able to get to the 100 conversion.

GL

Machiavelli · 10-20-2002, 07:14 AM

I believe that what happened in your example, is that the high-odds-to-one bet (+1000) released most of the additional value in the $100 matchplay. The positive ev from the scalp in your example is what pushes it all the way up to $100. To further illustrate this, let's instead consider a break-even scalp at -1000. In this case, you win $100 unless the underdog wins. So the ev in this scenario is:

$100 - $100*(prob of underdog victory) = ninety-something dollars

If you select three random (-110) sides to put in a 3-teamer, you will hit it one out of eight times or 12.5% of the time. So, your ev will be $600 * 12.5% = $75, again greater than $50 value. If you can find three sides that are break-even plays (52.38% plays), your hit rate will be 14.37% and the ev will be $86.23.

I normally find it easier to pick three sides that have a little line advantage in them, than to find a -1000 +1000 situation, let alone -900 +1000.

buckeye · 10-20-2002, 02:19 PM

Mach,
I agree about why my example nets 100. What I was saying is my scenario has no BET in it. You just use the odds to convert to cash irrespective of the sport or matchup or your capping ability. Your illustration of the "compounding power" of the 3 teamer is part of why I'm such a "parlay boy"/"parlay freak" but it gets back to relying on your handicapping prowess ( 50%, 52.38%, > ) to extract any value out. I'm not saying it isn't valid or a good thing but it is dependent on the same things NON-MATCHPLAY bet success is based on. There is no hedge or guarantee built in. I'd consider it betting the maychplay on a regular bet ( not flat but regular for me ) that has some other advantages regardless.

I'd say if there is a time restriction ( have to use it within a week as example ) on the matchplay I'd agree it is pretty impractical to find a +1000/-900 or even +1000/-1100, but many of these have no restriction so you can bide your time to find one.

Thanks for your thoughts on it!

GL

Comp Fan · 10-22-2002, 07:10 PM

I usually find the most competitive prices that the book offers on $$$ line dogs and play 2/3 teamers. I recently hit a book up on STL +350 and ATL +190....I believe it payed 11ish to 1 and using my "seat of the pants" math - figured out my EV to be 85%. This "works" for me, many times these things do not hit but every once in a while [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

Machiavelli · 10-22-2002, 10:13 PM

Something I just noticed from CRIS's website:

"The Maximum a customer is permited to win from one free-play is $5000"

An unfortunate policy for a player with a big matchplay, but a smart protection for the house IMO.

Comp Fan · 10-23-2002, 08:59 PM

The book that I played the aforementioned match play parlays at limitds the payoffs to 15-1. I had tried to bet several combos that paid 20 to 30-1 and then was told NO, 15-1 max.