Questions regarding restedness and added points

[paddenm]

Can anyone help me with or point me to discussions answering the following questions:

In the NBA, how much it is worth to be rested (1+ days rest) when playing an unrested team (O days rest)? i.e.,all else being equal, by how many points will a rested NBA team beat an unrested team? Is two days rest any different than one day of rest? Similarly, is there any effect of restedness in the NHL?

On a different topic, can anyone provide data to show how much each half-point is "worth" (in terms of changed odds) in each of the following: MLB totals, NHL totals, football totals and basketball sides/totals?
e.g., is it better to take the Sixers over the Pacers at -3 -110 or -3.5 +100?

Thanks for any help with these.

[SLAM DUNK]

I categorize games 3 ways

A) completely Fresh
B) 3rd in 4(did not play last night, but played the 2 nights prior)
C)Back to Back(played last night)

I give A and extra point over B and an extra 2 points over C. B gets and extra point over C.

Is it completely accurate? It is hard to say but I find it works well enough. and found no reason to change it when fitting the data into results.

Regarding a half point, I addressed this in a thread a 6 months back or so in the mess hall. Cannot find it. Basically a half point is worth about 1.9%. A little higher with road favorites, also I probably a little higher in the 2-4 range as so many games that go down to the wire will end up with a margin of victory of 2-4.

Actual data I have over the last 4 seasons on 3 point home favorites is

56-81-6

the 6 pushes would either add to the losses or add to the wins depending on whether you were giving or getting an extra 1/2 points.

56-81=40.87%

Getting would bring you up to 43.356%
Giving would bring you down to 39.16 %

for the sake of getting a larger sample size-converting all home favorites of -2.5 to -3.5 to -3

We get 170-191-19 actual psr (47.1 %)

becoming 189-191 when getting an extra 1/2 point (49.73 %)

becoming 170-210 when giving an extra 1/2 point (44.73%)


On road favorites we get the following(converting all 2.5 through 3.5's to -3)

143-124-12 actual(53.55%)

meaning

155-124 when getting an extra 1/2 point((55.55%)

143-136 when laying an extra 1/2 point(51.25%)


By the way the actual stats on 3 point road favorites are

52-46-5