ANOTHER "easy" NFL early season...any idea why?

KingOfTheSquares · 09-30-2002, 05:58 PM

By all accounts, NFL year 2002 looks pretty easy so far as least as far as sides picking is concerned. I'm off to my best start since '87 (most consistant) and hitting just under 65% on a ton of picks. Any idea of why this is so? Also, anybody who follows this stuff knows that 2000, 1999, and 1998 were pretty easy too with 2000 and 1998 real "square years" where even the "bozos" were making money.

Here's my list of suspects:
1. We really have entered in the Age of Aquarius...The 5th Dimension was just a coupla decades early.
2. The Bookmakes can't find their collective a$$es with both hands (thus Aces Gold etc, go belly up)
3. Salary cap
4. Passing Game has hit the NFL with a vengance.
5. You can get every game on TV these days so Squares are getting smarter.
6. Everybody has the internet these days so Squares are getting smarter.
7. This is all Elliot Wave stuff...applied to the NFL.

And while you're at it, tell me why last year was so hard in the early season...

alysheba88 · 09-30-2002, 07:09 PM

Ill jinx us both King by noting the same. Have had extremely good success (68%) on the NFL.

I felt locked in at the end of last year and throughout the playoffs. Except for the Super Bowl.

Have read alot of comments from people about the books cleaning up and I am not sure I understand why. Unless its all the Rams Squares.

I do think people are slow to adjust sometimes. If they have a pre-season pre-conception about a team they will stick to it even when the early evidence shows they may be wrong. For example I jumped right off the Jets after the Patriot game and have bet against them the last two weeks. But I keep hearing and reading things from people which lead me to believe they still dont understand the depths of their problems. The same with the Rams and Steelers too.

count zero · 09-30-2002, 07:59 PM

The Jets will be OK. They have some problems right now at OL, DL, DB, TE, QB, LB, WR and RB. Other than that, the only problem is the coaching staff and the lack of a true home field. Once they get these problems cleared up, you'll be sorry you said bad stuff about the Jets.

On the fast start for sharp plays, it's just random fluctuation. Most people I follow are doing well so far. Last year, most of the same people were doing poorly at this point. The "obvious" dog plays, like CLE, DAL and CAR yesterday, are coming in. A couple of years ago, these live dogs were consistently failing vs public favs (recall the dismal performance of the Contrarian Indicators thread that year). The squares were squealing with delight then, just like we are now. Success comes and goes for all groups; the long-term winners are just the ones who do a little bit better during the good times and a little bit less worse during the bad times.

rabbit · 10-01-2002, 02:33 AM

I think heavy advertising by offshore sportsbooks has brought in a huge influx of square money, which makes for square lines. For example, when I started betting in '78, it was well known that you don't go against Monday night home dogs. However, there are apparently lots of squares betting money these days who are unaware of that. Witness NE +3, TB +3, and BAL +9 already this year (OK, Wash +3 also).

As for last year, I think September 11 got everyone out of kilter. Brains were scorched.

KingOfTheSquares · 10-01-2002, 05:43 PM

Rabbit, maybe you're right about the brain scorching, however week one was pretty bad numerically as I recall and the other early weeks did nothing to break the pattern.

CZ continues to contend that random variation in the NFL explains all/most of this stuff. However, my psychic contends that a "cyclic pattern dominates this trend" and that the cover-two defenses now being played by many teams "converge" into the pattern.