NBA Regular Season Wins

[Dingle]

Trawling on the internet today looking for details on player moves, I came accross a nice article regarding projected win totals for NBA Teams. It is similar to Bill James's Pythagoram theory in MLB.

I will post the projections here for the teams. Bearing in mind there are a fixed amount of wins possible 1189, the formula comes up with 1189.9 wins. I thought this was quite accurate so will just post the numbers here.

Sacramento 63.7
LA Lakers 63.3
San Antonio 61.4
New Jersey 55.5
Dallas 54.3
Minnesota 52.1
Seattle 51.3
Portland 51.1
Boston 49.1
Detroit 48.5
Philadelphia 47.0
Orlando 46.4
New Orleans 44.6
Utah 44.2
Indiana 42.0
Milwaukee 40.3
LA Clippers 39.6
Toronto 39.5
Phoenix 38.5
Washington 36.0
Miami 35.3
Cleveland 29.8
New York 27.1
Atlanta 26.5
Houston 24.5
Golden State 23.9
Denver 21.9
Memphis 17.5
Chicago 15.0

Anyone want to go on and discuss this topic further? What player moves may have an impact. Specifically in what areas would these players affect the way the Team Scores, and also on the defensive end of the Team.

Dingle

[Machiavelli]

The high end and low end look a little too extreme to me.

Hopefully all is well Dingle, shoot an e-mail if you get a chance.

[Dingle]

Mach

Mail on its way

Dingle

[Holy Bull]

I'll give it a shot and give my initial #'s....

Sacramento 63.7 - about right, maybe a tad high, I'd say 62-63
LA Lakers 63.3 - WAY too high with Shaq a big question mark and no backup, 53-54
San Antonio 61.4 - too high, 57-58
New Jersey 55.5 - about right, 55
Dallas 54.3 - think a little low, 55-56?
Minnesota 52.1 - way too high, 47-48
Seattle 51.3 - too high, 44-45
Portland 51.1 - too high, 47-48
Boston 49.1 - about right, 49
Detroit 48.5 - way too high, 43-44
Philadelphia 47.0 - a tad low 48-49
Orlando 46.4 - too low, 48-49
New Orleans 44.6 - way low 48-49
Utah 44.2 - tough call but I'll say about right 44-45
Indiana 42.0 - low 43-44
Milwaukee 40.3 - just about right, 40-41
LA Clippers 39.6 - way too low, pending Brand's injury status, 44-45
Toronto 39.5 - about right 39-40
Phoenix 38.5 - a little high? 37-38
Washington 36.0 - too low 39-40
Miami 35.3 - too high, 33-34
Cleveland 29.8 - way too high, 21-22
New York 27.1 - way too low (I hate the knicks but come on) - 32-33
Atlanta 26.5 - way too low, 32-33
Houston 24.5 - way too low, 30-31
Golden State 23.9, about right 22-23
Denver 21.9, too high, 18-19
Memphis 17.5, way too low, 23-24
Chicago 15.0, way too low, 22-23

Thats just about 1189.

As for trends, these numbers overrate the western conference and underrate the east in general.
Obviously the west is way stronger but they still play most of their games against each other.

[Dingle]

Holy Bull

As I said, the discussion is needed, these numbers were made using each teams previous years stats. So some tweaking would need to be made due to player moves etc...

I am just throwing it out there for discussion. I will do my own work on them, and see what tweaks I can make. Maybe we can look at it at the end of the season!!!

Dingle

[Holy Bull]

Would love to hear others opinions...I bet these last year and went 3 for 4, haven't even checked yet what bookies have them up yet.

[rabbit]

Dingle -

Could you please tell us where you saw the article on the web?

Thanks.

[Dingle]

Rabbit

Here it is.

http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_1224.shtml

I had a look over last years numbers, and it has not much merit as a forward predictor, I guess because of the personell changes. For example, New Jersey (Jason Kidd) was a whopping 27 games out. But I have some other ideas myself of how this sort of data could be useful. Is an interesting read anyway!

Dingle

[rabbit]

Thanks, Dingle.

[jackyl]

Milwaukee Bucks - 40.3???

That's easy money folks! Bucks will win at least 50 to put last season behind them! Dog is gone!! Team will be better with Timmy Thomas in the starting lineup on a daily basis!!

[Immanuel Kant]

I would give a great deal to be able to bet into 2 of these............Memphis over 17' and Cleveland un 29' is as close to stealing as you can get......what will be interesting to see will be how far these numbers are from the openers available.........

BTW....when do these season-props open?

[MrKnowItAll]

Milwaukee should be way over 40 this year. New Jersey should slide back to the mid 40s. There is a baseball stat that teams which improve greatly from one year to the next (i.e. Chicago and Philadelphia fit this pattern the past three years) slide back in their total number of wins in the third year. (which is what happened to the Cubs and Phils this year). I'd be curious if this pattern exists in the NBA. New Jersey would be a team that has that third year coming up in the NBA.

[Dingle]

MrKnowItAll

Interesting that you say that, I believe there is some merit in what you are saying, but to me the Dramatic rise in New Jersey's win total last year could be attributed to an outside influence. The pick up of Jason Kidd. He has made the difference to the team, therefore I dont believe that New Jersey's win Total will deviate too much from last years.

Do single player moves like that one make as much of an impact in Baseball? Only have to look at A-rod and Texas to answer that question. With only 5 players on the court at once, I believe single players can have a significantly bigger effect on a team in the NBA as oppose to the MLB, and if they sign a couple of good players, it has to have a major impact.

Just my opinion.

Dingle

[nehpets]

hmmm interesting
final standings

[Holy Bull]

I went 18-3 on saying whether those #'s were too high or too low. Too bad the actual line I'm sure was much stronger and I had no interest in tieing up bankroll for 6 months [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]