Interactive College OT Total Example: Louisville vs. FSU

[Holy Bull]

Ok...thought I'd throw this out there...

FSU vs Louisville last night going into OT:
Total is 48.5
Score is 20-20.
Heavy rains and a wet as heck field.

The market was sitting at 36-41 at the end of regulation.
Right before the first play in OT, the price had been bought up to 48-53....so the market was pretty confused as to how to price this situation. I have my thoughts, but would like to here what you guys think is the correct price.
For the record, I jumped in at 41, and didn't take the 48 I could have gotten at the start of OT.
First play was a pick and it was over.

[Dingle]

Holy Bull

I wont be able to make you a price, but will have a stab at the theory of the problem.

To me it seems to basically come down to one thing. After 1 team has scored, will the other team answer in any form, therefore taking the total over. (I am working on the assumption that once a team has scored, the opposing team has 1 drive to score. If the rule is a drive each, then please correct me).

If Team scores a field goal, the other team must score at least a field goal, or a TD. Both would mean that the total will go over.(I am also assuming that games cant end in ties, please correct me again, if wrong, I am not 100% familiar with the NCAA rules).

So we would first have to look at the different scenarios to push the total over.

Team A Field Goal + Team B to score in the possesion.
Team A TD + Team B TD (I assume they would not kick a field goal, can just imagine the "Fix" threads here if they ever did).

Obviously you have some other variables, but they would be inherent in your probs for each team to score(Based on each teams perceived strentgh on either side of the ball).

Assuming I am correct, all we need now are the %'s of these 2 scenarios which would send the Total over. Compound them, and Bob's yer Uncle!!!!

Like I say, if anyone spots any areas way I have not looked at the problem correctly, please point them out. These interactive problems are a great thing to discuss, and I have certainly been reading with interest!!!!!

Dingle

[Picksix]

Good question Bull,

I'm not sure what the right price would've been. There probably haven't been enough NCAA overtime games to make it worth researching past results.

I started buying the over with about 10 minutes left in the game. Once it got under 4 or 5 minutes, I was hoping for OT.

Then I was just waiting for the first OT drive. If FSU kicked a FG then I was probably buying more. If they scored a TD I was most likely going to sell what I already had. Unfortunately it got picked and I didn't get a chance to do either.

I must admit I didn't watch the first part of the game. I normally watch the entire game of games I'm going to trade. But in the 2nd half it looked like both teams were moving the ball really well, almost like the the poor footing was helping the offenses.

[Picksix]

Dingle, I think all your scenarios are correct.