The line usually moves towards an objective source or not?

[The Actuary]

When confronted with the question of when to bet, be it early in the week or late, or for that matter in MLB, early or late in the day. I've used mechanical mathematical ratings figuring the closing line will closer to a concise objective measure rather then not. I think totals exhibit this tendency more frequently then sides but.............

I really never tracked it closely, it was just something I noticed and went with.

Yesterday, I came across an interesting table, I assume the gentleman will be tracking for the duration of the season.

The prediction average is the average prediction of a set of computer ratings.
All lines are in reference to the home team. +3 means the home team is favored
to win by 3 points and -3 means the visitor is favored by 3 points. I am using
predictions that are posted on the various ranking's pages or the ratings that
are sent to me.
These predictions are being used for research and informational purposes only.

Disclaimer




Home Visitor Opening Updated Prediction Prediction
line line Avg. Standard Deviation

Air Force New Mexico 6.50 6.50 8.00 10.24
Arizona St. Central Florida 5.00 4.00 2.17 4.32
Arkansas Boise St. 8.50 7.50 5.09 7.46
Arkansas St. Tulsa -6.00 -5.00 -0.82 6.91
BYU Hawaii 10.50 10.50 11.21 6.83
Boston College Stanford 7.00 8.00 2.84 9.17
California New Mexico St. 13.50 12.50 11.12 7.46
Central Mich. Wyoming 1.50 2.00 6.30 8.44
Clemson Louisiana Tech 12.50 12.00 9.17 7.28
Colorado San Diego St. 23.50 23.00 20.36 8.63
Connecticut Georgia Tech -23.00 -23.00 -25.28 8.50
Duke Louisville -18.00 -17.00 -14.59 11.18
Eastern Mich. Toledo -23.50 -22.00 -22.45 9.08
Florida Miami (Fla.) 1.00 2.50 1.10 6.99
Houston Tulane 4.50 2.50 1.14 6.75
Kansas St. Louisiana-Monroe 39.50 38.50 38.53 11.16
Kentucky UTEP 19.00 20.00 15.41 12.42
Louisiana-LafayetteMinnesota -14.50 -13.50 -17.69 7.70
Maryland Akron 23.00 22.00 20.05 10.92
Miami (Ohio) Iowa -5.00 -4.50 -2.61 6.80
Michigan Western Mich. 24.50 22.50 21.26 8.77
Michigan St. Rice 23.50 27.00 25.65 8.46
Mississippi Memphis 9.50 8.50 8.47 3.75
Missouri Ball St. 17.50 15.50 14.79 5.15
Navy NC St. -19.50 -16.50 -17.49 8.07
Nebraska Utah St. 32.50 30.50 36.01 7.22
Northwestern TCU -5.00 -5.00 -6.28 7.98
Notre Dame Purdue 7.00 6.50 9.93 4.80
Ohio St. Kent 31.00 28.00 24.92 10.19
Oklahoma Alabama 14.50 12.50 16.47 5.68
Oregon Fresno St. 13.00 14.50 14.42 4.77
Pittsburgh Texas A&M -3.00 -3.50 -1.29 5.46
Rutgers Buffalo 8.00 8.00 4.44 5.81
Rutgers Buffalo 8.00 8.00 3.96 6.82
SMU Texas Tech -16.00 -18.00 -17.94 6.24
South Florida Northern Ill. 5.50 7.50 5.62 7.66
Southern Miss. Illinois 3.50 6.00 5.52 6.65
Syracuse North Carolina 5.50 6.00 8.77 3.93
Temple Oregon St. -12.50 -9.50 -8.69 6.69
Tennessee Middle Tenn. 28.50 22.00 24.68 3.79
UAB Troy St. 5.50 3.00 -0.18 17.46
UCLA Colorado St. 7.50 7.50 4.61 6.95
UNLV Kansas 15.00 14.50 11.69 5.93
Utah Indiana 14.00 14.50 10.19 5.57
Virginia South Carolina -3.50 -4.00 -4.98 6.34
Wake Forest East Carolina 5.50 4.50 4.09 5.52
Washington San Jose St. 30.50 30.00 22.72 8.34
Washington St. Idaho 28.00 27.00 30.62 8.66
Wisconsin West Va. 11.50 10.50 11.97 6.98

The columns formatted terribly.

They are:
1st number is opening line
2nd number is current line
3rd number is the average of three separate rating programs.
4th number is the standard of deviation

It will be interesting to follow, I'll post it in this thread whenever I remember.[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]
TA

[KingOfTheSquares]

...heh, heh.

So you noticed it too, TA?