ONLINE SPORTSBOOKS

Go Back   MajorWager Forums > MW - Online Sportsbooks > Handicapping "Think Tank"
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Handicapping "Think Tank" technical handicapping and statistics

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
  #1 (permalink)  
Old 08-30-2002, 11:09 PM
count zero count zero is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: marin county california
Posts: 4,340
Default Are You A Gambler Or A Handicapper?

Back when I was a blackjack player, there were two kinds of card-counters: the academic types, who were focused on the intricacies of the game itself, and the more pragmatic types, who were focused on the money. The first group, mostly loner types, would spend endless hours evaluating the best counting systems and calculating things like expected win rates, the cost of toking, the value of sitting at 3rd base, etc. They were generally uninterested in other ways of winning like playing tells or hole-carding. The second group -- more gregarious, better adjusted, and less intellectually inclined -- tended to spend their time developing a good act, trying to suborn pit personnel, and vigorously engaging in the squalid behaviors that define human beings the world over, i.e., lying, cheating, and borrowing money they don't intend to pay back.

It strikes me that there's a similar division among sportsbettors. There are the handicappers, who are focused on finding winning methods, and there are the gamblers, who are focused on winning money. A handicapper can do his thing without gambling: I personally played on paper for the first 5 or 6 years of my 30 years as a handicapper, and at least one of us here at TT (KOTS) is 'capping but not betting this year, yet these people still enjoy the intellectual challenge and even sweat the results, to the extent that they're excited by the prospect of seeing their theories confirmed (or blown out of the water). Similarly, gamblers often don't bother to handicap: they play NASCAR, or some obscure soccer league, just looking to get the best of the line in some way, a middle, a scalp, even just a better price than the next guy got. Like their card-counting brethren, they tend to be schmoozers, tough guys, extroverts -- generally happy to be swimming in the human soup, cheerfully willing to mix it up with anyone. They think of gambling as a way of relating to other people -- in the best cases, relating to them by taking advantage of them. Handicappers tend to be less interested in people; they think of gambling as a way of relating to mathematics.

It often struck me, back in the blackjack days, that I could make a lot more money if I could acquire some of the qualities of a gambler. But not only could I not do so, I couldn't even really bring myself to try. It just wasn't me. I'd rather set myself on fire than pretend to enjoy the company of a LV pit boss; I'd rather be buried in a fire-ant mound than join a team of counters (most of whom, in any case, spent the better part of their time trying to figure out how to steal from each other). And similarly, here at MW, I see so many people with much greater knowledge about how to maximize their profit than I have, and I wonder why nothing ever rubs off on me. I even know some of what to do, but when the time comes, I just can't get my heart into it and go back to depending entirely on being able to pick winners.

So -- what's your type? Are you a gambler or a handicapper at heart?

And if you're a gambler, can you help get me pointed in the right direction?
__________________
I want to die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather. Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
Reply With Quote
  #2 (permalink)  
Old 08-31-2002, 01:37 AM
ChuckyTheGoat ChuckyTheGoat is offline
Three Star General
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Posts: 12,632
Default

I'm a handicapper for sure, always looking for the edge. I'm not an instinctual bettor at all, which sometimes I think is a drawback.
__________________
"Talk is cheap"

Pearl Jam: "...hearts & thoughts, they fade away..."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9U4bf5OPTdc
Reply With Quote
  #3 (permalink)  
Old 08-31-2002, 01:38 AM
buckeye buckeye is offline
Lieutenant
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Posts: 1,612
Default

cz,
I've often written very similar things. I prefer capper and bettor. A capper picks games and concentrates on what that takes, kind of against the consensus line. A bettor works every angle and method to make $ from betting. I guess I think of a gambler as a RISK TAKER to the nth degree, so I use bettor for the $ making guys. The computer geek was the capper and BW was the bettor in the Computer Group, is my analogy. Scalpers and middlers are PURE BETTORS. Those who use a token dollar amount "just to keep score" on their bets and aren't that concerned about line shopping, etc. are more "PURE CAPPERS" in my mind. Just how I view the TWO BRANCHES.

I was a 90% capper 10% bettor at first but am probably close to 50-50 now. I admit it is hard to be great at both and takes loads of time. Some are more suited for one, others the other. I'm not in it to make loads of $ (the delusions of grandier that some have ), but I do like the "cushion" of good betting when my capping isn't very good or on sports I can't cap well. On some sports I'm almost pure capper, others the opposite. I think those who are professionals are 20-80 or more toward the bettor side. I don't think you can be too good at either aspect! I'm always lookin to get better at both!

JMHO
Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)  
Old 08-31-2002, 02:16 AM
hiptwo hiptwo is offline
Corporal
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Posts: 269
Default

CZ, i don't know if you remember but about 4 or 5 years ago when you were still at bettorsworld we exchanged a couple of e-mails. i was a programs and numbers guy, and still do my handicapping that way. i guess iam a square as when i do bet its sides or totals, and always small. not saying i don't like money but its a rush to beat the book, and/or the public.
Reply With Quote
  #5 (permalink)  
Old 08-31-2002, 05:12 AM
KingOfTheSquares KingOfTheSquares is offline
Sergeant
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 1,480
Default

CZ, I resent the implication that I am not a degenerate gambler. The mear fact that I am tolerated here is proof that I am...

BTW, my stance that I want to clean up the industry by a boycott is further proof that I want to make money by having sounder books to bet into. Plus the fact that I can't get thru this season without having some kinda action going (Fantasy Football at least) is the sealing argument...
Reply With Quote
  #6 (permalink)  
Old 08-31-2002, 05:33 AM
rabbit rabbit is offline
Sergeant
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 626
Default

I would definitely fall into the first category. Left-brained, for sure. However, I'm trying to listen to my intuition more and not rely solely on mechanical plays.
Reply With Quote
  #7 (permalink)  
Old 09-01-2002, 06:59 PM
Grandfather Grandfather is offline
Two Star General
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Posts: 6,726
Default

Gambler Or A Handicapper?

I would like to think of myself as a:

Gambler-Capper
or would that be
Handi-Gambler.

Anyway...I cap the heck out of baseball, and 90% of the time, get the best number I can.

Reply With Quote
  #8 (permalink)  
Old 09-02-2002, 04:35 PM
AussieVamp2 AussieVamp2 is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Posts: 3,453
Send a message via ICQ to AussieVamp2 Send a message via AIM to AussieVamp2
Default

Sulking and saying you are not going to bet is about negative several million out of 10 on the degenerate scale, I think.

[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]
Reply With Quote
  #9 (permalink)  
Old 09-03-2002, 05:02 AM
deepsouth deepsouth is offline
Sergeant
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Posts: 747
Default

Definitely on the "handicapper" end of the spectrum ... it would probably do me some good to shift slightly towards the "gambler" side.
Reply With Quote
  #10 (permalink)  
Old 09-03-2002, 05:34 PM
buckeye buckeye is offline
Lieutenant
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Posts: 1,612
Default

cz,
There was something in your original post that should probably be expanded on. In your gambler description u mention "tended to spend their time developing a good act, trying to suborn pit personnel, and vigorously engaging in the squalid behaviors that define human beings the world over, i.e., lying, cheating, and borrowing money they don't intend to pay back."

The "good act, subborne pit personnel" thing I have no problem with as those are angles and I don't consider them cheating. Like spotting dealer tells, taking on a faux personna, or acting a fool as cover. I think the rules against cc are unfair and intellectually counter-acting them without cheating is fine by me! Just as line shopping, scalping, middling, juice deals, etc. are angles to help betting w/o cheating, IMO!

The cheating and welching is where I'd draw the line. Bonus whores/cheats, past posters, bad line seekers, scammers etc. are bad news for both legitimate sides of the counter. They sap "unearned" $ from the system by cheating it and that just makes them scum IMO. There sometimes is a fine line between "angle" and "cheat", but it is an important distinction in my book! Many draw that line in a different spot ( for instance some bookies seem to think scalpers are okay but middlers are scum ). I know many disagree with my "line of demarkation", but a lot of it is based on the intent and trying to be fair about things. Marking cards, conspiring with the dealer to cheat, past posting, and all the other cheats that can be done at BJ are also scummy, and can get u prosecuted as well.

JMHO
Reply With Quote
  #11 (permalink)  
Old 09-03-2002, 10:06 PM
j j is offline
Lieutenant
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Posts: 1,558
Default

CZ,

I don´t think I quite get your analogy between black-jacking and sports betting. What is it, exactly, that you find yourself unable to do that you know you should do to maximize profits? How would being a schmoozing extrovery be helpful to the sports bettor?

I´d put myself in the money-hungry gambler category, though I probably share your distaste for hanging out and shooting the shit. And for me being money-hungry means I can´t bet as many sports as I´d like because maximizing my profits requires my attention to other matters.
Reply With Quote
  #12 (permalink)  
Old 09-03-2002, 10:45 PM
count zero count zero is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: marin county california
Posts: 4,340
Default

Well, my first thought was bonus-whoring, and my second thought was how badly I often get beaten to the number by people who are out there betting while I'm still checking and re-checking. But also I often see threads where guys are getting various perks just by being the squeaky wheel -- you see posters complaining that xyz book wouldn't let them bet with no money in their account when "they always let me before," that kind of thing. Those deals aren't even on my radar. I also feel the more gregarious gambler-types tend to have better info on the offshore scene than the loner types, and that they're less hung up about financial responsibility etc, and so seem a lot more relaxed about betting big than the handicapper types, who tend to be more careful with their money. I feel like I'm sitting in my ivory tower running numbers and occasionally reaching out the window to get a spoonful of money, while the gamblers are running around down in the streets with wheelbarrows. Was probably just feeling sorry for myself off eating a couple of 6-point moves in NFLX, but I had the same experience playing BJ -- I was a top 2% player, but I wasn't a top 2% earner. I didn't enjoy playing (someone once called playing pro BJ "hours of boredom punctuated by short periods of intense stress"), I only enjoyed the theory. My wife is the opposite and she made money hand over foot playing BJ, even though she didn't even know how to play until I taught her.
__________________
I want to die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather. Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
Reply With Quote
  #13 (permalink)  
Old 09-04-2002, 12:36 AM
KingOfTheSquares KingOfTheSquares is offline
Sergeant
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 1,480
Default

Damn CZ, sounds like you are indeed one of my clone addys. I like working a new number strategy, but abhore line shopping. Never got into the BJ stuff due to the boredom factor (aside from the fact that card counting is tough when you have dyscalcula...er...dyslexia with numbers).[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img][img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-shocked.gif[/img]
Reply With Quote
  #14 (permalink)  
Old 09-04-2002, 12:55 AM
rabbit rabbit is offline
Sergeant
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 626
Default

In the process of divorce...would love to have a wife into BJ [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]
Reply With Quote
  #15 (permalink)  
Old 09-04-2002, 01:59 AM
j j is offline
Lieutenant
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Posts: 1,558
Default

Now I think I get it what you´re saying.

I might not agree about the squeaky wheel getting better treatment. They crow about what they get, but believe it that they go in the books as whiners and get shaved in other ways. You probably come across as someone who just goes about your business and you might not face certain hassles ýou don´t even know you don´t face especially if you bet dimes and more.

Now about making an early number, as far as I´m concerned in the NFL especially that is the discipline of disciplines. I don´t want to go didactic on you, but why not look at the next week´s games Saturday night and make some numbers, and then, even if you´re full of bong hits, look at them again after the late games finish. There will be a couple of plays that you´ll know you´ll want to make, and you can take your first positions then. Later there will be time for further checking and establishing other positions taken from more thorough research, but I know if you went through the motions of making early numbers they´d be good enough to get you some deals. And if you occasionally made a mistake you could buy out of it, and I know you´re the kind of player that can see their mistakes and take corrective action.

You know I missed out on the middling because I didn´t want to be thought to be a middler, so in that way I´ve always thought of you as more opportunistic than me. But if you´re giving away the chance to take first positions you really are giving away a third of your edge, IMHO. But that doesn´t have anything to do with being gregarious.

In a way I´d hope the lead-taking contest might get us more in the habit of thinking like early birds.
Reply With Quote
  #16 (permalink)  
Old 09-25-2002, 06:49 PM
The Actuary The Actuary is offline
Five Star General
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 20,122
Default

I've been debating how to respond,

interesting post immediately following a MLS and Nascar post I made.

I bet these events because I know by spending a minimum amount of time handicapping, I know more then the guy I'm betting against.

Isn't the bottomline to win???

Clearly, seem to be steering me into the gambler catagory, particularly using BJ as a platform.

But I submit I am a better handicapper then most gamblers and a better gambler then most handicappers.
__________________
In 1998 the Department of Justice brought charges under the Wire Act against 22 American citizens involved in managing foreign-based sites. "You can’t hide online," Janet Reno, the attorney-general, warned Internet betting operators, "and you can’t hide offshore."
Reply With Quote
  #17 (permalink)  
Old 09-25-2002, 08:47 PM
Holy Bull Holy Bull is offline
Lieutenant
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 2,740
Default

This is sort of against the "type of person" theory but I'd have to say it depends on the sport, at least for me.

Football I have absolutely no tolerance for actual handicapping and even if I tried, I don't think I could get much value out of it. Thousands of hours are spent by thousands of people handicapping each and every game, with better info...scouting reports, injury reports, etc than anything I can come up with trying to sort through numbers. Instead, with much less effort, I can just handicap the line and the money flow and try to get the right number on the right side of a game.

On the other end Baseball, I am a pure capper. There are many more games with less time to sharpen lines, and a relatively even information playing field in most cases....everyone has access to the same numbers and its just a matter of who can interpret them better.
On the gambling side though, baseaball is very straight forward. There really isn't much movement, at least on sides, just open up an odds page, find the best price and bet. With minimal shopping you are playing on maybe a 5 cent line so there really isn't much of a need for than this.
Reply With Quote
  #18 (permalink)  
Old 10-05-2002, 05:38 AM
neilm neilm is offline
Two Star General
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 5,663
Default

When I first found these sites, first BW briefly and then MW, I was a handicapper to the bone 100/0. I would leave no stone unturned scouring for information, angles, models etc. in order gather the information that would form the basis for my plays. Through osmosis, I've picked up the other important things that make someone a consistent winner in this game.

Today, I'm 35/65 with a stronger emphasis on the gambler as opposed to the handicapper. The handicapper is still there, his skills have been honed, but he has found a powerful ally.

I encourage all you cappers to explore your dark side and not resent it but rather embrace it. You can look down on followers, screen watchers, bonus whores, middlers, scalpers and arbs as lower lifeforms not capable of the highly intellectual analysis you produce, or you can learn from them to augment your betting strategies, and maximize your returns.

As a ray of light to follow, I'll tell you that one day you'll get out of bed and be unable to remember the last week (insert appropriate time frame) your bankroll contracted. You'll know (not think but know) that in X number of days your bankroll will be at least Y % bigger. You'll be doublechecking your figures after a busy weekend, not believing that you actually made that much money that week. You'll be making much larger wagers based on your handicapping than you ever thought you'd ever make, with a fraction the concern regarding a possible unfavorable result. You'll be betting better numbers, winning more bets and handicapping with a much clearer head.
Reply With Quote
  #19 (permalink)  
Old 10-05-2002, 07:13 AM
Machiavelli Machiavelli is offline
Sergeant
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 1,188
Default

Well said neil, good stuff.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:55 AM.

Please be advised that if you are wagering over the internet, this is illegal in many jurisdictions. A wagering site may be operating legally at their location but it may still be illegal for you to wager from your location. We suggest you check on the legal situation from any jurisdiction in which you may wager.
 

Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.0.0 RC6