ONLINE SPORTSBOOKS

Go Back   MajorWager Forums > MW - Online Sportsbooks > Handicapping "Think Tank"
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Handicapping "Think Tank" technical handicapping and statistics

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
  #20 (permalink)  
Old 10-05-2002, 11:28 PM
count zero count zero is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: marin county california
Posts: 4,340
Default

Thanks for the encouraging words, neilm. Would you be able to estimate the percentage of the gain you speak of that's attributable to having Don Best or the like, as opposed to what could be gotten without Don Best? Similarly, could you estimate what percentage of the gain you speak of could be gotten in the NFL, as opposed to all other opportunities?

My intention was certainly not to put down arbitrageurs, sorry if I gave that impression (though I will admit to resenting the multiple-beard types that burn out the good deals for all of us). I aggressively middled Aces Gold for the 3 years I was aware of their Friday promo, and I'm an inveterate shopper. But this football season I've been able to find exactly 8 side shots and one middle shot around 3, all 9 plays being tied to one particular quick-to-boot book with low limits and oddball lines, and all 9 worth an average of about $75 each. That was about a week's worth of NFL middling last year. Is arbitrage do-able without Don Best, especially in the NFL?

Thanks in advance.
__________________
I want to die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather. Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
Reply With Quote
  #21 (permalink)  
Old 10-06-2002, 01:06 AM
AussieVamp2 AussieVamp2 is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Posts: 3,453
Send a message via ICQ to AussieVamp2 Send a message via AIM to AussieVamp2
Default

One thing about that cz, is that Don Best will close all your opportunities there faster, so the more people with it, the more competition, the harder it should be - and the more other line services too.

Plus I suspect more and more people in it just to arbitrage, so more and more ferocious competition.

Next question for that is - will the sportsbook pool shrink?
Reply With Quote
  #22 (permalink)  
Old 10-06-2002, 03:15 PM
herlisfood herlisfood is offline
Private 1st Class
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 88
Default

i guess a handicapper is also a gambler , handicapping to gamble.
Reply With Quote
  #23 (permalink)  
Old 10-06-2002, 04:43 PM
KingOfTheSquares KingOfTheSquares is offline
Sergeant
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 1,480
Default

OK, I admit it. I think middling and middlers is/are the world of lower life forms, but I don't hold it against them...if I can turn an easy buck, I would do it and have done I did it and would continue...but spending all day on the 'tron machine shopping for that extra 1/2 point is something I won't do.

Matter of fact, when you come right down to it, I think most of the folks who hang out here are infected with some sort of disease that makes them do this stuff. A friend of mine called it "underachieving pro gramblers," i.e. if these folks put as much time and effort into their financial lives apart from the life of "applied Probability and Stat" they would very much have a better financial life. And you guys that don't understand the numbers? Wow, you don't even understand how great an advantage this world has on you.

My hat's off to you pros, if you can do it, good on you. However, I think if you are good enough to eak out a living at this, think how much more you'd be if you had chosen a real life?

OK, I've probably started a fire storm with these comments...give me your best shots...
Reply With Quote
  #24 (permalink)  
Old 10-06-2002, 08:26 PM
j j is offline
Lieutenant
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Posts: 1,558
Default

KOTS,

I've never met a professional gambler who wouldn't agree with you. If their criteria was purely financial success, they all know they could have done better putting their skills to use in the para-gambling that's done in financial markets and elsewhere.

They all know they pay a lot to wear tennis shoes. Some would do it different if they did it again, most wouldn't.
Reply With Quote
  #25 (permalink)  
Old 10-07-2002, 02:25 PM
The Actuary The Actuary is offline
Five Star General
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 20,122
Default

Hi KOTS,

The lure is somewhat overpowering at times.

The innovation seems to inevitably lure me back in, I project income and it usually starts off pretty good but gradually fades away.

It started in high school, when AC got casinos, I learned how to win, figured out a decent hourly wageapplied my theories and quickly realized casino's although promulgating the myth of the winner, really didn't like to cooperate.

Full card nationwide simulcasting was next, I followed it around as it became the norm, certainly a guy that see's all the races has an advantage vs a guy that was stuck betting one track, i.e. a horse ships from Louisana to Illinois, well the bettors in Illinois depended on the form to provide a guide to the animal's ability, we actually saw the animal running in Louisana, that BIG edge vanished as full card simulcasting became the norm, and with it a good deal of my profit. I can remember one year after this dissappeared betting close to $3.5 mill to win right around $35,000, having to be at the track 60-70 hrs/ week.

Online poker was yet another lure, can play upto four tables at once, playing around 240 hands an hour. Yet again, at the inception, it was unbelievably lucrative, the players really didn't care about winning, most were glad to be in the game. But as the sharks arrived the fish went broke and I went from averaging close to ten big bets an hour profit, to barely one.

Once again, I'm working in the everyday world, I finally got a job, doing something that has interested me most of my life, but I'm constantly wary, what new development, will cause that seemingly ineveitable choice to just stop showing up the next time.

TA
__________________
In 1998 the Department of Justice brought charges under the Wire Act against 22 American citizens involved in managing foreign-based sites. "You canít hide online," Janet Reno, the attorney-general, warned Internet betting operators, "and you canít hide offshore."
Reply With Quote
  #26 (permalink)  
Old 10-07-2002, 07:45 PM
Machiavelli Machiavelli is offline
Sergeant
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 1,188
Default

Reply With Quote
  #27 (permalink)  
Old 10-07-2002, 10:09 PM
count zero count zero is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: marin county california
Posts: 4,340
Default

Would anyone else care to take a shot at the question I posed to neilm? That is, of the big $$$ gain he speaks of, a) what rough percentage is attributable to Don Best, and b) what rough percentage is gettable in the NFL?
__________________
I want to die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather. Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
Reply With Quote
  #28 (permalink)  
Old 10-08-2002, 12:51 PM
neilm neilm is offline
Two Star General
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 5,663
Default

Count,

I'll get to your questions when I can. Lets start with the line services available.

First of all there are three different Don Best services and each player needs to select the one that is right for him. Please note that I didn't say that each player needs to decide if one is right for him, one is right for everybody (unless you rarely bet on pro or college sports).

The first one is the $500/month premium service. It offers live odds updates. This is for the serious player. Can it make you an extra $17 a day to pay for it? Of course.

The second is the $99/month Island Express Platinum. Its odds are updated every two minutes, not instantaneously like the Premium Service. At less than $4 a day its a bargain.

The third service is the Island Express Free. Its odds are updated every 5 minutes. There is absolutely no reason to not use this at this price, if you're not using any service already.

A quick note about the two delayed odds services: The delay is in how frequently the whole board is updated, so sometimes you get close to real time updates. The Premium Service updates each book, when they type in a change to a number. The delayed odds ones take snapshots of the service at the intervals stated above. So the average delay on the two minute delay is actually one minute (and 2.5 minutes for the 5 minute delay). As an example for the free service, when the five minutes is up and the service updates, the change that it is updating could have occured 30 seconds ago or 4.5 minutes ago.

There are also two other popular (?) north american services, G&J Update and Oddswiz.

Oddswiz (through Bettorsworld) has a fabulous offer right now. Post up with an BW book for $2000 or more and receive the oddswiz service free for a full year.
Reply With Quote
  #29 (permalink)  
Old 10-09-2002, 05:05 AM
count zero count zero is offline
Captain
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: marin county california
Posts: 4,340
Default

I have 6 months of free Oddswiz from Royal. I fired it up a couple of times, but was disappointed to see that it wouldn't run in the background. Maybe I'm using it wrong, but it seemed like as long as I was on Oddswiz I was out of touch with my non-Oddswiz books, not to mention MW etc. The huge preponderance of NCAA moves was also a problem, as with every beep I'd leap to attention only to find that it was a college game that had moved (I only play the NFL). I guess I should consider trying to arb the college games, but I've heard quite a few discouraging words about middling NCAA foots over the years. Also, I guess I could try to learn when the most active times are, maybe Sunday morning and Sunday night for the NFL, and make a point of firing up Oddswiz during those times. Or maybe IX Free doesn't have these problems?
__________________
I want to die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather. Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
Reply With Quote
  #30 (permalink)  
Old 12-04-2002, 01:19 AM
herlisfood herlisfood is offline
Private 1st Class
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 88
Default

i really dont know , i just place my bets. gl!
Reply With Quote
  #31 (permalink)  
Old 12-04-2002, 02:09 PM
Timbit Timbit is offline
Corporal
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 154
Default

Hmmmm... I'd say I'm a timid gambler. I'll read a little bit into pre-game reports, and look at past records, past head-to-head matchups, and read into future schedules. I usually have a "gut feeling" on the games that I bet on. When I say I'm a timid gambler, I mean that I won't bet on a game until I feel that everything is correct and I'm very confident on the bet. I think I focus more on my win-loss record, than actual units gained. I'm not sure if that's good or not... maybe I should be thinking differently? Sure, I like an upset just like the next guy, but only if I have money on it. I rarely make "lottery ticket" plays unless the odds are really good. Someone told me "The only dumb bet is one that doesn't win".

And just like the stock market: No position, IS a position!
Reply With Quote
  #32 (permalink)  
Old 12-07-2002, 03:42 PM
Jeff K Jeff K is offline
Private 1st Class
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 53
Default

CZ... As you may know from my previous posts, I've been number crunching for 20 years. In many respects we are a lot alike. I've done my crunching during years I was unable to bet, and spent thousands of hours programming and refining my power ratings. Hell, I'll probably refine until the day I die. There is one aspect where we differ. I believe to make good PR's, that only the current year's stats are necessary. To me, all previous years are worthless. NE was 5-11 in 2000 and won the SB in 2001, so why would you want to use the earlier info. It would only dilute their rating. Unless you're a trend bettor, a large database is not necessary (KISS). I do use the previous year to spot bet the first 4 weeks of the season, but after that it's all current.

Like you, I enjoy the challange, and would say I'm 70% HC and 30% gambler.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:44 PM.

Please be advised that if you are wagering over the internet, this is illegal in many jurisdictions. A wagering site may be operating legally at their location but it may still be illegal for you to wager from your location. We suggest you check on the legal situation from any jurisdiction in which you may wager.
 

Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.0.0 RC6