action points?

The Actuary · 08-29-2002, 10:31 PM

If strictly applied to all 7pt favs, with a cap of six points on either side, would this have been profitable historically?

Logic would seem if the dog covered, fav by 3,4 & 6 would be likely outcomes, if the fav. covers 10,13 & 14 would be likely outcomes. This distribution may be skewed enough?

tyia

KingOfTheSquares · 08-30-2002, 07:23 PM

TA, I don't understand what you're asking for. Is this a teaser Q?

The Actuary · 08-30-2002, 09:32 PM

No KOTS not exactly a teaser.

Are you familiar with a form of betting involving "action" points?

But the silence was deafening.[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img] So i'll conclude there's something worthy in there.

count zero · 08-30-2002, 10:56 PM

Would have done the computer work to look at this if I remembered exactly how action points work. I know the general concept is that you win more depending on your team's margin of victory. But I think you may have overestimated the level of familiarity here with this bet. Care to explain it for us?

Bostongambler · 08-30-2002, 11:04 PM

Green Bay -3 110-100 . You put a cap on your margin, say 1500. Can't win more than 1500 or lose more than 1500. Green Bay wins 21-10 Thats 8 pts. over the 3 pt. lay so u would win 8 hundred. If Green Bay loses 21-10 thats 11 pts. plus minus the 3 -1300.

The Actuary · 08-30-2002, 11:19 PM

Count the other post was very entertaining.

From WSEX

What Are Action Points?

An Action Point wager allows a player to place a bet on how many points his/her selected team will beat the spread by up to a set cap. You can choose your own cap between 1 and 15 points on Pro-Football games. You choose how much you wish to bet per action point. When you place an action point wager, no money is deducted from your account, but your maximum loss potential is restricted from your account until the game is final.

You win the dollar amount wagered for each point the team covers by up to the selected cap. You lose 1.1 x (dollar amount wagered) for each point your team does not cover by up to the selected cap.

Here is a typical payoff chart:

Team A is -7.
You choose a cap of 10 points.
Wager amount is 10 dollars per point.
The amount restricted is 110 dollars. Team A Wins By 1 2 3 4 5 6
You Win/Lose -66 -55 -44 -33 -22 -11
Team A Wins By 7 8 9 10 11 12
You Win/Lose 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 +50

As you can see above, Team A winning by 17, you still only win $100 because of your cap and below Team A losing by 3 you still only lose $110.

KingOfTheSquares · 08-31-2002, 06:26 PM

...nope, never done action pts...looks like it might be fun tho. This is a narrow market, right? One or two books offer this?

The Actuary · 09-02-2002, 12:14 AM

I guess it is narrower then I first assumed.

count zero · 09-02-2002, 02:26 AM

I show 341 opportunities (7-point favs) since 1983. The winners earned 843 action points and the losers dropped 791 action points. If the vig on each action point is 10c, then playing action points on every 7-point fav since 1983 lost (843 - (791 * 1.1)) = (843 - 870) = -27 units.

This is completely unverified, that is, I didn't cross-check to see if there were in fact 341 7-point favorites since 1983, and I didn't hand-check the results for a bunch of games to make sure the calcs were being done correctly. As usual, I went with the first number that came up that sounded like it was in the ballpark. If you think there's a problem, let me know within a few days before the code gets overwritten by something else.

The Actuary · 09-02-2002, 02:38 AM

Thanks Count, did you cap it at 6points?

count zero · 09-02-2002, 02:57 AM

Knew you'd check on that. Yes I did.

The Actuary · 09-02-2002, 04:47 AM

That number is not as bad as it may appear given 1900+ units exposure.

count zero · 09-02-2002, 05:53 AM

Right, that's what I thought too. Will try something else if you come up with anything. There are probably some profitable subsets of this, but I don't think tightening is a good idea, generally.

The Actuary · 09-03-2002, 02:22 AM

OK, I have a plan, but first the tightening is bad.

A very good point, the failure of many novice race handicappers is to use an elimination method that ultimately put's them on the same obvious overbet horses as everyone else.

But it seem's the more accurate the line the better chance of success in my scenario, so how about tightening [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img] and using just games after 10/1?

TA

superbook · 09-03-2002, 02:28 AM

Olympic offers action points but you have to call, not online.

count zero · 09-03-2002, 05:59 AM

Don't have dates, but used weeks instead. I figure the first week of games on or after October 1 would be week 4 or 5.

If you didn't play until week 4, there were 289 opportunities that won 691 points and lost 693 points.

If you didn't play until week 5, there were 268 opportunities that won 646 points and lost 647 points.

Both are a disimprovement over using the whole season.

lakerfan · 09-04-2002, 12:24 AM