College Football: Halftime Betting Techniques

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Anybody have solid halftime betting approaches they care to share in here?

I think most of us have theories/gut feels about how games will play out in the 2nd half. Wondering if we can bounce some ideas off each other. I'll offer up two theories that I've done on. Wondering if others would concur that these will be long-run winners:

1) The big dog getting blown out at halftime.
...Look at the ArkSt-VaTech gm. 56-0 at half. Half line is VaTech(-17). I really think this comes down to motivation. Does the fav really have an impetus to win by 73+? I tend to say no. Another gm that comes to mind was Nevada at BYU last yr. Can't recall the exact halftime score, maybe BYU 42-0. I do know that Nevada was +9 2nd half and catching 50+ for the adjusted game line. Even the championship gm in 2001 could be lumped into this category. Was Nebraska really going to get beaten by 40+? I seem to recall some bookies saying that 2nd half line was one of the most difficult to set. Do you base it off the game line? Do you use the 1st half annihilation as a predictor of the 2nd half? JMHO, but adjusted game lines of +40 or more often indicate motivation on the dog to save face.

2) The big fav trailing at halftime.
...Gut instinct would say there's value taking the fav here. Game that sticks out to me is 1999 FlaSt down 14-3 at Clemson. Halftime line: FlaSt(-9). So if the Noles win outright, you win. They owned the ACC and I didn't believe they would go down. This situation may be more of a tease than the first one, because upsets do happen. But we often don't believe it until it goes final.

Anybody have any comments/approaches they could share? Thx and GL.

[The Actuary]

I have no data, but given the second halves are higher scoring, it seems to me the inverse of the first half is the right side, particularly in extremely lopsided games. To clarify, I am talking about totals and a lopsided half of points not necessarily a blowout, in which I'd expect less 2nd half scoring.

One game comes immediately to mind as an example, MIchigan v NWU, I think the total was 63, first half was like 51-0 Michigan. I think under is generally the right side.

Even though, it seems anecdotal evidence is starting to appear that betting against the full game/2nd half middlers may have value. Which is of course the direct opposite of this. I've bet quite a few totals in the extreme of my example with success, but there are alot of folks I've talked too that are middling out in the second half, so......................??????

[Chilly]

is there a good place to get 2nd half lines? It seems you culd check this out pretty easily by marrying the 2nd half lines and 1st half scores w/ game lines.....

chilly

[sports student]

I use 5 dimes and they have 2nd half lines on all college games and last week I noticed they sometimes give out two different lines on one game with a corresponding money line. I can't remember if this 2 line thing was only in the NFL or if they had it on some of the college games.

[sandwedge]

often there is value with the under for the second half when a favorite is blowing out a weaker team. one can't score and the other doesn't need to score and will be content to eat up clock. works even better for college hoops.