Football: Warm-weather teams playing in the cold

ChuckyTheGoat · 08-23-2002, 02:00 AM

If you've been around the block a few times, this is a popular theory that bounces around. Simply that teams from the south perform well below avg when having to deal w/ cold weather (maybe 40* or lower). I can think of no better example than 2001: MiamiFL at Boston College. The Canes were bundled up like it was Siberia, and the funny thing is that it wasn't even cold (50*).

Instinct tells me that this is a game situation that southern teams just can't simulate. The ball is harder and the game isn't as easy to play.

I've seen this approach work in the past. But short of digging up old weather reports, it's a little tough to confirm this theory as a long-run winner. Anybody have insight on this approach? Also, does the corollary have any credibility (northern teams having late in the yr having difficulty w/ humidity of the south)?

count zero · 08-23-2002, 03:48 AM

It doesn't seem to work for totals, but I'm guessing that's because the lines are adjusted. I tested the old "Ice Bowl" concept (play the under after week 11 in NY, NE, Buffalo, Cleveland, Chicago, etc). It was a big winner in the early 80s, but is 46-57 since 1988.

Shouldn't be hard to see how certain (southern) teams fare in those cities late in the season, but there'd be some slack in the results, since my data doesn't know whether it was actually cold for those games or not.

ChuckyTheGoat · 08-23-2002, 05:12 AM

Thx, count.

Right now, it's just a working theory for me. I've seen it work quite often, but that may be selective memory on my part.