Tech Talk is a great section

[The Ghost]

After reading every post in this section, many thoughts came to my mind. First of all it is refreshing to see everyone in this section expressing their thoughts without using name-calling as part of their post. Everyone here seems to have a passion for what they do and are willing to share their info. My hat is off to all of you!

Sports betting today: The single biggest problem with sports betting is that the market is very small. Once one has the ability to win consistently you need a market that is big enough to handle substantial action. That is where the money is. Vegas has all but dried up as a worthwhile place to play. The local does not offer the verity or hours of operation to fulfill ones needs. The off shores fill these needs to a point but leave stability as an issue.

Teasers: Some of you guys are close to the answer but if you can find the total answer what stops a book from changing the payoff odds the following week? Say you find a team that should cover 77% of the time. A book may limit you to using this team in only 3-5 max teasers. You spend weeks or months perfecting a system but can’t maximize it.

Halftimes: Good EV but the logistics of getting down are horrible. Phone lines are busy; numbers move with a single bet, and sometimes the best values are located off the screen.

Overhead: This is something that is seldom talked about in these forums. If you are a one-man operation your overhead is minimum but your production is horrible. As your success rate goes up so does the need to employ people, increase bankroll, and increase risk. Growing a profitable sports betting business is very tricky (IMO harder to do than grow a legitimate type business).

Money management: What system does one employ? A system that guarantees you will never lose your entire bankroll or one that allows you to maximize profits. Does one have the ability to fire when the situation calls for it? You need to know yourself well and not wait to answer these questions when the situation arises. If someone offered you an honest one-time coin flop with a payoff of 2-1 how much would you be willing to wager on it? Five times the biggest bet you have ever made, ten times, or everything you have plus borrow?

Taxes: Does one pay his or her taxes on the money won or try and hide this money? Both answers cause a problem but how you answer this will determine how successful you will be. Choosing not to pay taxes limits your ability to win maximum or at least enjoy the fruits of your labor to its fullest. Paying taxes means you now have a partner who extracts 30-50% of your profits and demands detailed records of your activities. The above was written for US citizens depending on what state they live in. One could employ some sort of hybrid system and get the best or worst of both worlds.

Objective vs subjective handicapping: Objective handicapping allows one to produce more opportunities thus more money should be made. This style is less time consuming once the winning system has been discovered. There is no emotion involved and in the long run this is better for most people. If one is only after the max profits than this is the only way to go IMO. Subjective handicapping when done by the right person can find bigger edges. There is an added reward in subjective handicapping in that it was your power of reason or logic that came up with the pick. The real downside to subjective handicapping is humans do not make the same logical conclusions when going good as when they are going bad. This form of handicapping is quite time consuming and doesn’t allow one to spend the time on other factors such as finding the best price. One who uses subjective handicapping must put in the time on selections, so things like vacations and time with family and friends are dictated to us by this way of handicapping. We can become slaves to our own success.

Parlays vs straight bets: The higher the win % one can achieve the more a parlay will max out ones profits. The reverse is also true to a point. Parlays allow one to bet on separate events that may have correlation and parlaying is the only way to take advantage of correlations. The down side to parlays is that you may take a less than optimal price on one or more of your teams. Straight bets are easier to manage, easier to place, and easier to insure you get the best line. Something that I have never understood is why do people bet $1100 to win $1000 laying –110 and $1050 to win $1000 laying –105. To me you should lay the $1100 to win $1048. If you think the right bet is $1100 why lower it to $1050 just because the book is charging –105?

The Ghost

[GottaWinToday]

Good post Ghost. Just wanted you to know someone is reading it.....

GottaWinToday

[buckeye]

Interesting ghost! You touch on a lot of the topics. Some follow-up comments:
1. On teasers, I don't know that there is a fear of having a team "limited". My guess is that a book may not allow u to play any teasers at all if they thought u were banging them too well, not try to limit the # u can play on a particular team. That leaves u to play them elsewhere, I guess. This discussion reminds me of a friend of mine. While he doesn't do it to circumvent limits, which is another way parlays could be employed, he uses a parlay method where he "keys" on one team in all his parlays and then plays all his other picks with them in a "wheel" like fashion. When his "key" loses, he feels like he would have lost on them straight anyway. When they win, he has had some huge profit weeks - much more than 11-10 offers - when his other picks are good that week (NFL). I don't advocate this method, but it works for him. Nolan Dalla actually recommended a "wheel teaser" a couple seasons ago, which is what brought it to mind.

2. On Parlays, I have often said that one of the best reasons to avoid parlays is that they cause some to give up better lines to "force" the parlay. If u don't do that then there is no harm, but many will give up a hook here or there compared to what they could have "shopped" the line to - which is unwise. Also, like futures betting you must adjust your money management approach as you will have much "colder" streaks and must not risk as much of your bankroll in order to weather more dry spells. I advocate a seperate "parlay bankroll" and different $ management completely for them, personally. Just like betting some futures markets leave that $ "tied up" for all season.

3. On keeping the same "lay amount"" regardless of the odds. Some of that is dictated by the book's s/w. While they keep it "point and click", they don't give u the option of playing 1100 at -105, it is 1050 only. To get close you'd bet 52.5 to win 50 MORE, as a second bet. I prefer the s/w that allows u to key in any amount and designate it as lay ( risk ) or "to win". When they do this I use whole number units instead of worrying about the "to win" being equal among plays. This is one of my few "complaints" with WSEX and caib s/w, and OLY and others that allow any amt u want are much better, IMO.

This last topic is an interesting one. Some Euro players have said the Vegas style odds ( like -150 ) are really a subtle way to lure "punters" into betting more on favs than on dogs. The idea being that by suggesting you bet 150 instead of whatever you want ( like 100 even ) they "lure" you into betting more on the favs ( like the 150 ) and less on dogs ( since most take risk amts for dogs like 100 to win 130 ). The idea being that dogs tend to be the "sharper" play and that risking less on them ( as a unit ) and more on the favs you are doing it bassackwards and giving the book more edge, which is what they want. They may have a small point, but I think it derives from not wanting to figure what $100 returns at -150 when bookies did everything by hand, that created the "norm" being what it is. When people say they bet a "dime" on a FB spread I assume they mean $1100, some really mean $1000 to win $909, so it gets confusing sometimes as to whether to count the juice.

JMHO

[The Ghost]

Buckeye

Let me try and be clearer in what I was trying to convey.

1.Teasers: These types of wagers are a BM nightmare. He can’t even them off, and he doesn’t know the odds or fully understand the bet. A fallacy about teasers is that it is a sucker bet but many times it’s the BM who is the sucker. If I were a BM I would want –130 on 7pt. Teasers. In a different thread someone was discussing –110 on 7 pointers and my comment to that is it takes a bit of work to beat these things and who wants to invest months of work and then be limited to a few limit bets. That is the best thing that can happen but in most cases the BM just changes his price till he realizes profit or cuts limits till their sucker action can overcome the sharps. One of the big problems around here is many posters obtain a level of expertise and than complain there isn’t enough quality outs. The sports market is small and the availability of good teaser outs is way smaller.
2.Parlays: agree, and I have nothing to add.
3.Lay amount: same as #2
4.Last topic: I have never heard that one before except for the part about keeping the payoffs simple.

Other thoughts I have: People complain about doing all the work on finding edges and the BM doesn’t know shit about anything. Why does a BM need to do research? He only needs to look at his bottom line and adjust the juice accordingly. We see large books going to a 20-cent BB line and there is no penalty for them just reward. People complain about Oly and CRIS in one sentence and then say when football comes I’ll be going back. Pretty sweet for these guys, while other books do a good job for their customers during BB yet lose some of the business in the more lucrative sport of FB. If I was a BM I think I would use a 50-cent line but it would work like this. Say the line at MR. Dime Line is –160 +150. At Ghost International Sports and Casino say I want to take my first pop on the favorite my line would be –159 +109. Everyone would complain about the 50-cent line but still bet me if they wanted to lay the favorite. Say I take a limit bet at –159 and want buyback, my new line is now –203 +153 or something like that. I now get only the bets I want without risking a line running on me and getting overloaded on one side. If Oly can do it than GIS&C can take it to a new level!!! This is exactly what some NASDAQ market makers do and they write exactly what business they want. Know one posts a bunch of crap about them.

The Ghost

[GottaWinToday]

You know guys, I love this forum, but there's not much activity here and I don't want the powers that be to squelch us. SOOO, I'm going to the drawing board and ask for everyone's help for my math/tech problems...............

GottaWinToday