Are Tennis bettors Technicians or Feel Bettors?

ChuckyTheGoat · 08-16-2002, 04:48 AM

Something I've looked at only briefly. But I have seen quite a few decent tennis cappers. Wondering what the key variables are in tackling tennis:

* Record on specific surface would jump out to me. But seems that everyone knows pretty well what a guy's specialty is. ie, Ferrero and Kuerten are clay court specialists.
* Current form? Is a strong recent run enough to supersede a deficient record on that surface?
* Tough draw? Does having to come through a tough side of the bracket, w/ multiple long matches have a cumulative effect?
* Nagging injuries? Clearly, some of these enter these tournies at less than 100%. And I'm not sure the line always accounts for it.

Am I on to anything here? Do any tennis bettors have a quantitative approach w/ such variables that lets them create their own line? Or is the anlalytical approach way off, w/ good tennis bettors being able to identify lines that just "look wrong"? Again, I'd understand if certain aspects of this answer are not something that people would want to discuss in a public forum.

GL, all.

AussieVamp2 · 08-16-2002, 07:21 AM

The answer to that is both.

AussieVamp2 · 08-16-2002, 03:48 PM

as to how many are one way or the other?

good question

The Actuary · 08-16-2002, 05:20 PM

Hello Chucky,

OK, so my tennis thread has been the subject of it's fair share of ridicule, however it suggests a complete no nothing dolt that only bets extreme prices should be able to take a huge chunk out of the 7.5% juice that is common in tennis. Coupling it with even the slightest part of positive handicapping and obviously the result would be a positive roi.

So I figure when I get to 1000 matches if it's stillin the ballpark of zero, I'd include IMHO the surface adjustment and the head to head as regular adjustments. In special circumstances I'd include travel, motivation (particularly guys coming off tourney wins flying half way around the world for an early tuesday match[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img] and injury (to which reliable dope is tough to get.)

Good luck,

TA

XXGameXX · 08-16-2002, 11:40 PM

Chucky

If you do you homework Tennis can be the easiest to make money in.
Homework I mean
-watch every game and tourney possible
-know at least a couple of active players or people who travel to every tourney.

reason why tennis is easier to handicap then other sports
- 1 on 1 sport
the less players involved in your bet the better off you are.

things to know when capping TENNIS

1- any injuries
a slight injury will almost all the time prevent a player going to the top
2- surface or tourney
some players consider this Home court advantage
3- certain oppenents
some great players always have trouble with certain players
4- Hot players
when a player is hot
they will beat everybody

Hope this helps

AussieVamp2 · 08-17-2002, 01:27 AM

TA my guess is you will still be a zero man [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

ChuckyTheGoat · 08-17-2002, 01:29 AM

Thx, guys. Appreciate the answers.

GL, everybody.

AussieVamp2 · 08-17-2002, 01:32 AM

<<
reason why tennis is easier to handicap then other sports
- 1 on 1 sport
the less players involved in your bet the better off you are.
>>

Here's a good point. Even if buckeye still doesn't believe me [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

buckeye · 08-17-2002, 03:08 AM

AV2,
I take it your being a smart azz again! As u are the one that likes futures over matchups, right! I'm the one that likes the plethora of matchups to find softness in over trying to pick the winner in a field of 156 golfers. I don't mind the T5 place bets as they hit at a decent rate and u don't go months between cashing tickets.

JMHO

AussieVamp2 · 08-17-2002, 07:48 AM

<< AV2,
I take it your being a smart azz again! As u are the one that likes futures over matchups, right! I'm the one that likes the plethora of matchups to find softness in over trying to pick the winner in a field of 156 golfers. I don't mind the T5 place bets as they hit at a decent rate and u don't go months between cashing tickets.

JMHO >>

Futures are more fun, yeah. Who wouldn't like Fulke at 400/1? [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

What you are saying there is what is being said above though, you know about golf, so can work those out and win more easily than team sports.

The Actuary · 08-17-2002, 04:01 PM

Better to be a zero man then an ATM.[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

Zero man still theoretically gains utility from the excitement of the action and the knowledge that the books are working for free.

AussieVamp2 · 08-18-2002, 01:27 AM

well no doubt about that [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

Railbird · 08-26-2002, 02:55 AM

who ever is in better shape wins

AussieVamp2 · 08-26-2002, 04:06 AM

railbird has a happy tennis bookie then ;-)

sandyh · 08-26-2002, 06:53 PM

I suggest you look at recent matches. The point mentioned earlier about recent successes is important as that inspires self-confidence, which is a critcal factor.
Also watch the matches, one thing I've noticed has been twilight matches when the sun is streaming into one court favouring that player without the sun in his eyes. If you can get on just before they start playing you have a definite edge, but more importantly it can muddy oddssetters' ideas about comparative performance for the next tournament which then gives you the chance to back someone who should be favourite at dog odds.
I also suggest you keep a clear idea of the condition of the court, the bounce can be affected on all types of courts after a downpour of rain. And different players respond in different ways to low or high bounces.
I hope that gives you one or two additional pointers to add to your own.

Sandy

nehpets · 08-27-2002, 12:17 AM

<< twilight matches when the sun is streaming into one court favouring that player without the sun in his eyes. >>

but they change ends [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-confused.gif[/img]

Ahead · 09-20-2002, 09:23 PM

I would say both tech and feel is needed.

Recent form is always a keyfactor-motivation is also since ATP is continuing with it´s ridiculous high pace.

Recent Form-H2H-History in specifik tournament(s),seasons-Surface-Motivation(always be careful playing Kafelnikov,Safin in regular tourneys for example)-type of opponent(style of play compared)-condition(physical,mental).

Add them all up and see if you can get any value.

HOUSTON GAMBLER · 09-21-2002, 04:35 AM

Feel.

But I think it takes many years to get the feel.

Some linemakers make their own lines just like football.Tennis is the only sport that has to be won by two points.The player playing better at the time wins most of the time.Meaning that one is not going to win by luck.All we have to do is figure out which one is playing better.Ha Ha.

IMO the most important angle is playing style matchups.The trick is some players can make others play their game and abandon theirs.

Some leasons learned this year.
The US Open was a classic example of how the top pros can turn it on when they want to.Pete
As xxGamexx stated when your hot your hot.Canas,Gonzales,and Srichiphan.
A mule is not going to win a thourobred race but the parity in the mens game is unbelivable.I'm at a local challenger event this week and there are some top players here with the Davis Cup going on.The top seed was taken to three sets in the first round by a quilifier.

Good topic Chucky.

XXGameXX · 09-26-2002, 10:19 PM

Houston

tennis a 1 on 1 sport
i agree
The feel for the players is very important
You must be at many matches to get the True Feel for each player