How much of your capping is subjective versus objective?

[PMcK]

I agree that backing an injury-depleted team isn’t a bad idea, especially in the first game after an injury to a star player. There might be an overreaction by the public/books and the team is usually well motivated.

Motivation of the team is IMO one significant factor that’s difficult to measure objectively. For example in hockey I use my own power ratings to get rough estimates of winning percentages and then I look more closely at games that have ‘value’ higher than my preset criteria. My ratings could show that when (home team rating) - (away team rating) = -100 the home team +0.5 goals has in previous years won 40% of the games and in an ‘average’ situation I would consider a bet on the home team if I can get +0.5 +175. Many of the regular season games are close to average, i.e. nothing special has happened in the previous game and the next game isn’t special either. But what if the favorite was humiliated in its previous game and now they have full motivation to beat the home dog or maybe the normally bad home team has won a couple of games in a row and their spirit is high while the favorite might be concentrating on the game against their rival on the following day? I use subjective ‘feel’ in situations like that and don’t make the bet or make it at lower line than the numbers suggest.

On the other hand, my baseball bets are based purely on numbers. I don’t even read the match reports and only check if a player as significant as Barry Bonds is injured. I’ve thought that the motivation factor can’t be as significant as it is in sports involving physical contact like hockey or football. 50-50 one-on-ones in hockey might turn to 60-40, but how much will the players’ batting or pitching average change? I’d like to hear if you guys think that baseball is the best sport for ‘numbers only’ handicapping.

[The Actuary]

I agree with P, however the death or serious maiming angle is a proven winner. Can virtually guarantee a flat performance immediately following a sudden death of a teammate or the witnessing of a horrific injury regardless of all else.

[KingOfTheSquares]

TA, good point...

[AussieVamp2]

Mostly objective. Stuff I have the biggest 'fan' interest in, is much more likely to be subjective, or human opinion.

The NFL and AFL fall into that category.