I ABSOLUTELY LOVE AIR FORCE + 10

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I have been looking at this line all week from a lot of different angles, and there is just know way that this line makes any sense. I dont care that the game is being played at Utah, AIR FORCE should be the favorite, and will win this game straight up.



Utah is horribly overrated, they have done nothing at all this year to deserve the #18 ranking. The Utes are 5-1 but they dont have 1 quality win all year long. In fact, the most impressive game the Utes have is their 7 point loss against Oregon.



The Utes Beat a bad San Jose State team by 10, Beat a Horrible Louisville team by 16, Beat an average Colorado State team by 7 after trailing in the fourth quarter. They also beat Utah State 35-17.



Air Force is way way better than any of those teams that Utah by those margins. Air Force has not lost a game all year long by more than 7. They are not going to lose to Utah by 10. The Force just played a TCU team that is miles better than Utah and only lost by 3.



The Falcons have given up 83 points in 7 games which comes out to less than 12 points a game, yet they are a 10 point underdog against a Utah offense that has only been scoring in the mid 20's against much much weaker defenses. The Utes may very well not even score 10 points in this game, let alone win by 10 points.



The Falcons have a great running game with 2 very capable rushers. Jared Tew is averaging 3.5 yards a rush, while Savier Stephens is averaging 5.4 yards a rush. The Utes on the other hand have given up some big yardage games. Utah State rushed for 221 yards against Utah. Colorado State rushed for 160 yards against Utah.



I believe that the Air Force Falcons will be able to control the ball and the clock. They will have a pretty easy time racking up the rushing yards in this game. The Falcons defense will hold Utah to 17 or less. And I really have a hard time seeing

Utah get 17 in this game. I would expect it to be closer to 10.



Even If Utah hits a big play or two, they arent going to score more than 17 against this Falcon Defense which has to be the best in the nation. Giving up less than 12 points a game is amazing. Either way, 17 points is not going to be enough for Utah to cover this line, and I seriously doubt they even get 17.



What we have here is an Air Force team that has played an undeniably stronger schedule than Utah, they have scored more points than Utah, they have given up fewer points than Utah. Both of the differences in PF and PA are fairly sizable as well ( 16 and 25). The Falcons on top of that are getting 10, which is more like 20 when you consider that the Falcons Defense doesnt give up points.



I love the Falcons to win this game straight up, but I learned my lesson taking the Ravens ML instead of +3 last week, so Its Air Force + 10 and I am telling you this play is going to win.