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Daily Picks for NBA: ATS picks mainly
I was looking around this site for some NBA information and there really isn't too much to be had, so I thought I would contribute my picks as I go through the year...I am no professional, I do this for extra money and basically to give me a reason to watch more sports, but I have done fairly well this year with football picks, and looking back on my basketball picks over the last few days, I am now 7-3 with 2 pushes for NBA...
Blazers -5.5 @ Memphis for 100 units
I think the Blazers are undervalued at this point. They just made a lineup shift to a 3 guard set that has paid dividends the last couple of games. In Portland's wins, they have not won by less than 9 points.
Miami -6.5 over Washington for 100 units
Miami only beat Washington by 4 in their first meeting, but that was at Washington, and Miami is looking good ATS thus far this year (5-1)
Denver -1.5 @ Chicago for 100 units
This one is tough for me because the Bull's Noah is playing tough and Kenyon Martin is going to play, but play hurt..Also, I lost a lot of money when Denver went to Chicago last year when the Bull's only had 7 active players and the Bull's spanked them. The difference to me this year is that the Bull's don't have Ben Gordon now and I think Noah's play will come back to normalcy. Denver also has dropped 2 straight, and are going to be playing with purpose..
Milwaukee +5.5 at home against Denver
One problem I have making this pick is that Michael Redd is out. However, it seems like Brandon Jennings is a star in the making and Andrew Bogut is finally playing comletely healthy. Also, Denver has lost 3 straight at Milwaukee, and is finishing up a decently long road trip. Milwaukee's only loss without Mike Redd came against a Bulls team that barely lost to Denver last night, and the Bucks only lost that game by 2. One more thing, the Bucks are 4-1 ATS so far. Denver wins, but Bucks cover.
More picks will come as the day progresses, but I have to go to work and do some more research.
Another 11/11 Pick
Indiana vs. Warriors Under 224
I usually stay away from Over/Under picks because to be honest, I lose most of them (I love overs for some reason I have not figured out). However, Indiana have been with these 220+ over/under picks all season and has only covered one time, on the road. I know that it is the Warriors, who are coming off a 146 point game, but Hibbert is going to make the inside game a lot different down low.
One More 11/11 Pick
Atlanta -5.5 @ New York
Atlanta is a legit squad this year. Not just a team that can keep up with the Celtics, but have a huge scorer off the bench with Jamal Crawford. I think the key to this team is that they can spell Joe Johnson or Mike Bibby and lose very little while doing so. I think the oddsmakers are putting too much into the Knicks comeback over the Jazz. Fact is, Jazz aren't very good. One thing that concerns me is the fact that the Knicks lost by 9 to the Cavs when I almost bet my bankroll on the Cavs at -8, and the Cavs were up by like 30 points at some point in the game.
It looks like sportsbook changed the Milwaukee Denver line to -3.5 in the matter of about an hour.. I no longer like this pick at -3.5, but I got my pick in before the line changed so I will use it in my results as so....
Instead, I would say the Milwaukee under 196.5 line looks good because the Bucks have not cleared the Over yet this year, and are holding teams to scores below average for the teams they play.
Yet Another 11/11 Pick
I am sorry that these are all not under one post, but I get my picks in as I research to avoid lines changing on me.
Portland -8 @ Minnesota
I could just say, see yesterday's post about the Blazers. The Blazers to me are not getting ANY respect at this point. They still have not won by less than 9 points, and I don't think the T'Wolves are going to give them any more competition than they have had thus far. Wolves just lost by 41 points to the Warriors.
Last edited by foodstamp : 11-11-2009 at 10:55 AM.
11/11 Pick Summary - Analysis of each game can be read above. Just wanted to simplify my picks for today.
Indiana v. GSW Under 224
Milwaukee Under 196.5
All picks are for 100 units except I put 200 units on Atlanta and Portland bets
Cleveland and Orlando lines came out, so here we go:
Cleveland winner straight up
I know that Orlando dominated Cleveland at home last year, I mean dominated. So why am I taking Cleveland. Here's my rationale; Orlando is without Peja and Rashard, which Cleveland had absolutely no answer for last year. Also, Vince Carter almost did not play in their last game because of an ankle, and he shot 5-16. I don't think acquiring Shaq made the Cavs much better, if all, but IF he slows down Howard at all, there is no reason the Cavs should not win with all the other factors the Magic have.
Cleveland vs. Magic Over 190.5
Well given that I just gave reasoning on why both teams are worse than they were last year, I don't know why I should think they will score more points. I was going to pick Under, but because I am normally wrong on these, I decided to go against my first thought to see if that changed my luck...Do not follow me on this
Milwaukee +5.5 (WIN) +91 units
Indiana v. GSW U224 (WIN) +91 units
Atlanta -5.5 (WIN) +182 units
Milwaukee/Denver U196.5 (LOSS) -100 units
Portland -8 (WIN) +182 units
Cleveland Straight Up (WIN) +91 units
Cleveland/Orlando O190.5 (WIN) +91 units
Tonights Record (6-1)
Overall Record (8-2)*
Overall Units +910 (that's all this week BTW)
*Overall record is only for games put in this thread. As mentioned before I was already 7-3-2
Today's picks are a little more difficult for me today. Of the two games, nothing pops out as one that I would normally jump all over. I will be risking 50 units on the side bets, and 100 on the Cleveland O/U.
Cleveland Straight Up
I just think Cleveland is figuring some things out. Mo Williams had his stroke going and Lebron will always be Lebron. This series has always been close with Cavs leading overall with 10-9. This will be much closer than last night's game, but I think the Cavs will come out ahead. They've won 5 out of the last 6.
Cleveland/Miami Over 180.5
They have to score more than this. Looking back over the last couple years, together, they have not missed this mark but one or two times.
Phoenix is firing on all cylinders right now, and Lakers have only covered one spread this year. I think the Lakers edge them out tonight, but with Gasol out, I like Phoenix keeping it close.
I am iffy about the Lakers game because the last time Phoenix played back to back road games, they got blown out by the Magic. This could be due to Nash's age, I'm not sure. Hoping, they were just not prepared that game. The Lakers don't sneak up on anybody, and they have seen the Lakers enough times to be prepared.
Cleveland Straight Up (WIN) +45 units
Cleveland/Miami O180.5 (WIN) +91 units
Phoenix +8 (Barring something ridiculous, LOSS)*
I really had a bad feeling about this after I confirmed this bet because the back to back road game going from New Orleans to LA with the age of the guy that gets this team going. However, keep a note in the future about Phoenix getting blasted on back to back road games against top tier teams
Tonight's Record 2-1
Overall Record 10-3
Will this be Friday the 13th, where I lose all the money I've won this week? Hope Not!
Alright, These are my first three picks for this day. I made these picks quickly with a little research because I am familiar with the mathchups, or have been doing a lot of research on these teams.
I had no idea who the T'Wolves were playing tomorrow, but I already had my mind made up that I was betting against them whatever the spread. I was pleasantly surprised to see it was only 11, and on top of that against Dallas. The reason I had my mind made up about going against the Wolves was because I seen Al Jefferson is out for family reasons. Best player out, on awful team that keeps winning me units because they're awful. Also, I can't believe I'm saying this, Wolves will have no answer for Erick Dampier. I'll take it.
Hawks vs. Celtics. I take Hawks and the points every time they play the Celtics. For some reason, the Hawks have some serious confidence playing the Celtics since they met up with them in the playoffs a couple years ago. Their record isn't great against them, but take a look at the average spread at the end of the game. I'd feel much better if they were playing in Atlanta. I am hoping they don't let me down.
Portland. I am riding their train until they kick my ass off of it. I have not been wrong about them yet, and New Orleans just fired their coach. New Orleans has the best point guard in the league on their team IMO, but they were struggling before, and now their team has to be a little chaotic after the firing.
MORE PICKS COMING LATER TODAY
I almost shit when I seen this line. First off, rarely should you bet against Kobe. I was thinking the Lakers should be a favorite, even at the Pepsi Center. If anybody watched the team that I watched last night against an 8-1 Suns, I don't know how this line came about. The Lakers will dominate in rebounding with their absolute height advantage. Nene and Kenyon Martin is all the Nuggets have for good frontline players, but the Lakers have Kobe, Odom, Artest, and a 7 foot all-star-to-be in Andrew Bynum. Nuggets will HAVE to shoot lights out to match up.
I just put 300 units on this game.
Okay, this is an iffy bet, so this is one I feel completely comfortable going at alone. My rationale on this is that Toronto beat up on the Clippers both times they played them last year. Even on the road. Eric Gordon is also out for a while, and he was turning into a very good player for the Clips. However, I do not know that much about Toronto, nor have I ever risked much on them.
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