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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 03-19-2009, 10:18 AM
buckeye buckeye is offline
Join Date: Aug 2000
Posts: 1,612
Talking Nice NCAA tourney prop EV

#1 seeds to make F4: OVER 1 -110

I think it should be more like -350 or so. 1 gets u a push. Only 0 loses.

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Old 03-19-2009, 11:00 AM
buckeye buckeye is offline
Join Date: Aug 2000
Posts: 1,612

I could only find the seeding results for 11 years.
In that time the breakdown is:
4 once only time ever tho I know
3 once
2 4 times
1 4 times
0 once

So, based on that too small of sample set, the chances of losing would be 9%, pushing 36%, and winning 55%. I'd guess that on a bigger sample it'd be more like 12%,40%,48% or so, about -400 true odds sounds about right.


It is still only -125 BTW.
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