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Old 03-05-2009, 11:30 AM
mark mark is offline
Join Date: Aug 2000
Posts: 3,087
Default thursday college hoops

Best Bets (25-28)(-17.40)
Strong Plays (35-30)(+4.00)
Regular Plays (60-54)(+0.60)

Overall (120-112)(-12.80)

4-3 picking up 0.40 units last night. Back to back winning nights for the first time in what feels like forever. A step in the right direction. But I will tell you what….I am very disappointed with last night. I loved Wyoming and almost called it a GOY, but I know better than to do that. They led much of the game and I thought getting 8.5 was as good as gold. I went to bed and woke up this morning to see they lost by ten. I split my best bets, split my strong plays and won two of three regular plays. Cannot believe the regular season is coming to and end already. I love to bet the conference tourneys, but I think the Big Dance is very hard to handicap, so my goal is to get back into the plus by Selection Sunday. Here are Thursday’s hopefulls.

S Carolina -2 vs Tennessee (best bet)…………….Not going to over think this game. S Carolina is the better overall team, S Carolina is certainly the better team when you look at home/away records and you are only laying a bucket in this one. This line is only this low because Tennessee is the better known/more popular team of the two. Tennessee is a very solid team, but overall the SEC is down this year and usually home court means a ton and this is the perfect case. I see S Carolina winning this game by ten points or more.

Bowling Green +7 vs Miami-Ohio (best bet)……………..I just have a storng gut feeling in this one that this game comes down to the final minute of play. BG playing very well winning two straight and nine of their last eleven. Both teams play pretty good defense as well, which should lead to a low scoring game and if that is the case those seven points should come into play. BG is also 7-7 on the road which is not bad at all for a college team. Most teams unless they are great do not do very well on the road. Not much separate these two teams right now, so I will go with the hot BG team who should get the cover and with a few breaks maybe even the outright win.

Dayton +10 vs Xavier (strong play)……………….Only reason that I did not make this a best bet is Dayton has not won at Xavier in like a million years. I don’t need them to win though, just cover the generous ten points. Dayton a very respectable 6-5 on the road, so they are capable. These two always seem to battle it out in this conference and tonight they will do it again. Dayton is simply due and I feel very comfortable taking a team who is 24-5 and getting double digits. Sure Xavier is capable of blowing them out, but something tells me it won’t happen tonight. Dayton knows they can compete and even beat Xavier and tonight might be the night. My money is on all those generous points.

Idaho -4 vs La Tech (strong play)…………..I cannot help but like these small home favorites who are pretty good at home vs a team who is not so great on the road. Idaho is 10-3 at home, while La Tech struggles on the road at only 5-10. Niether team all that great at 14-14 and 14-16 respectively, so home court should be the difference here. I will take the slightly better team overall, with the much better H/A record to get the win and cover.

Arizona -4 vs California (regular play)…………..A week or so ago, everybody talked about how well and dangerous this Arizona team was. Now that they have lost a few people have turned their backs on them. Not me….at least not in this spot. Zona needs a win to maybe make the big dance. California is a very capable team, but they are only 500 on the road this season. Zona needs this game much more than Cal does, so I will try the more desparate team who is a very solid 16-2 at home to bring their A-game tonight and wins much easier than expected

Wichita St -3 vs Missouri State (regular play)……………When I first saw this game I loved it and was going to make it a best bet. Then I realized this was a conference tourny game and it was at a neautral site. So I have just downgraded it to a regular play. This one is simple in my eyes. Missouri St is just not that good and Wichita is the better team, so on a neautral court the better talent should win out….at least I hope so.

Buffalo +5 vs Kent (regular play)…………………I think this line is wrong. I think Buffalo is the better team this year. This line is based on years past where Kent was always at or near the top and Buffalo was a doormat for just about everybody. Both teams rely on defense, so I will take the better team and the five points in a game that could very well come down to the last possession.

The rest of these game are also one unit REGULAR PLAYS. I am not doing write-ups for these. They are all just gut feelings. Out of all my regular plays (theses ones are forced a little bit), I only need to hit a few to not get killed.

St Joes +7 vs Temple (smells like a close game to me)

Providence +10.5 vs Villanova (can’t get Providence thumping of Pitt out of my head)

Ohio +8 vs Akron (smells like a close game to me)

Indiana St +3.5 vs Drake (hottest team in the conference right now)

I must have lost my mind playing seven one unit plays. Like I said….I am bored today. Even if I only win three I would only lose 1.5 units, so it is like I am paying for some extra entertainment tonight. For those that follow my plays, just go by my first four plays, those are my serious moneymakers tonight.

Much better card tomorrow for a Friday, so I will probably be back with some plays then. I sometimes take a pass on Fridays. Definitely not playing anything on Saturday unless there is something I really love and it is a night game. Just don’t have time on Saturdays anymore.

Good Luck Everybody!!
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