Take Western Michigan To The Bank

superbook · 11-06-2001, 02:55 AM

Toledo is out for revenge after Western Michigan's 21-14 victory knocked them out of MAC championship contention last year, but tomorrow night take...

Western Michigan +11

Western Michigan's QB, Jeff Welsh, is probable for this game and he's a smart scrambling QB who is averaging 279 yds/game with 14 TDs on the season. Welsh is back for this game after sitting out two weeks with a collapsed lung. Western has no running game (94 yds/game) but if they get inside the 20 they score 85% of the time.

RB Chester Taylor is a double threat for Toledo, he's got 900 yds rushing and 17 TDs but is also averaging 9 yds/catch out of the backfield.

Toledo and Western Michigan both have decent defenses so I see this as a close, fairly low scoring game. The game means a lot to both teams, I think Toledo will win SU but not cover the 11.

One caveat: If Welsh doesn't play, stay off this game. Welsh's replacement, sophomore Jonathan Drach is not good. In the two games Welsh was out, Drach was sacked seven times and threw six interceptions.

[This message has been edited by superbook (edited 11-06-2001).]

green machine · 11-06-2001, 08:45 AM

i have toledo winning this game by 9 on my power ratings. so,i will stay away from this one.to close of a line to bet. good luck with western michigan.

superbook · 11-06-2001, 02:37 PM

Just to reiterate: Welsh is the key to Western's offense. If for some reason he doesn't play, lay off this game!!!!

With Welsh as QB, Western Michigan started 4-2 with the only two losses coming to top 20 teams Virginia Tech and Michigan.

With Welsh out, Western lost both games to lesser opponents.

cerberus · 11-06-2001, 02:44 PM

The W. Michigan backup qb is brutal. Like superbook said, the Broncos have a chance if Welsh plays.

I would like to know for sure that Welsh is playing. If anyone has updates on his status, then please post. I know he is probable, but I want someone to say that he is definite.

mjh218 · 11-06-2001, 05:42 PM

I also like WMU....Toledo having some serious offensive problems and not too solid on D either. Should be a close game!

mrhappyness · 11-06-2001, 06:04 PM

Like Toledo - 11. Western Mich 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS on road. Toledo unbeaten at home.

superbook · 11-06-2001, 07:45 PM

mrhappyness --

Forget the info you got from covers.com.

Welsh is playing, Western is covering and this game is going Over.

Splurge · 11-06-2001, 08:01 PM

A play of Western Michigan scares the bejesus out of me, especially since they have been involved in so many fleecing games this year (ask Markdel). I just played Toledo -1 in a teaser, and will just ride that out.

dog · 11-06-2001, 08:26 PM

I think Toledo is really struggling, if they win it won't be easy. Taking WMU +21 in a 3 team 10 point teaser with SMU +27 and Texas A&M +27.5.

superbook · 11-06-2001, 10:11 PM

Splurge --

Western Michigan scares you? LOL How about my CFL pick when I'm not sure I know how they keep score up there.

My theory on life is that I figure what doesn't kill you will make you stronger.

gl

value · 11-06-2001, 10:46 PM

I totally agree with you all regarding QB Jeff Welsh as the key to this game.
The question is will he paly tonight?
Every where I see him as probable.
Does anybody have a better update on his status???

superbook · 11-06-2001, 11:19 PM

Just heard from someone who is at the game and he says both teams are under the assumption that he will start.

He was cleared by the doctors today to play.

This is a must win for Western, they have to start him.

superbook · 11-07-2001, 03:42 AM

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:[/size]<HR>Originally posted by superbook:
mrhappyness --

Forget the info you got from covers.com.

Welsh is playing, Western is covering and this game is going Over.

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Splurge -- no pain no gain.

mrhappyness · 11-07-2001, 04:03 AM

Toledo and Western Michigan both have decent defenses so I see this as a close, fairly low scoring game. The game means a lot to both teams, I think Toledo will win SU but not cover the 11.

One caveat: If Welsh doesn't play, stay off this game. Welsh's replacement, sophomore Jonathan Drach is not good. In the two games Welsh was out, Drach was sacked seven times and threw six interceptions.

Superbook, You had the game right on the nose. Low scoring and Drash is not good. Sometimes better lucky than good. Also who is covers.com, where you get your info.

superbook · 11-07-2001, 01:11 PM

Sometimes it's better to be lucky that good, that's why they call it gambling.

Western got a couple of lucky breaks and got the backdoor cover.

I knew Drach had the size but if you looked at his stats from his previous games he was terrible. He really stepped up last night. I thought as soon as Welsh went out that Western was done.

In terms of low scoring, I had changed my tune on that from my original write-up as I was advocating the OVER.

Chester Taylor put on some show didn't he!

Splurge · 11-07-2001, 01:13 PM

Superbook,

That was FAR from an easy win on Western Michigan +11. Hell, you had to get lucky to win the bet. Of course, the game just soared over. Good call on both the side and total.

I got my Toledo teased -1, with Bc +3.5, and the Sixers +11 (lost by 10.....WHEW), so I'm happy.

Louis Cypher · 11-07-2001, 03:21 PM

Superbook,

Great call on the game and total, thanks for the free money (backdoor covers are great when you're on the right side).

LC