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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 11-12-2001, 05:09 PM
Grandfather Grandfather is offline
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Default My annual NBA post...screw the spread...just pick winners

Every year I post this...Every year I take plenty of abuse for it.
But what the heck? One more time!

The straight up winner in the NBA covers ther point spread...so just pick the winners!!

This year I won't go and drag out my numbers about the percent of winners that also cover the spread. Nobody believes it anyway.

But I have documented proof...proof right here at Majorwager this time. I speak of the 1 week old, NBA Weakest Link contest.

This past week, I posted 31 games in the contest. A contest where you just pick the winners...not vs the spread. Of the 31 games, the winner covered 27 of the games

Once again it comes in at a high percentage. And if you eliminate any game over 10 points, it gets even higher.

So, don't let that point spread influence you so much guys. Just pick the winners and make a deposit at the bank each Monday.
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Old 11-19-2001, 01:20 PM
Grandfather Grandfather is offline
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Results of posted contest games:
Straight up winner also covers....

Week 1...27-4
Week 2...28-2
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Old 11-19-2001, 04:40 PM
THE HITMAN THE HITMAN is offline
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THANKS, THIS POST IS BEGINNING TO MAKE A LOTTA SENSE! TOUGH LAYING POINTS ALL THE TIME, OR WORSE YET, TRYING TO FIND A STRAIGHT UP WINNER GETTING A BUNCH OF POINTS, BUT, NONETHELESS, A GREAT STAT & SHOULD BE AN ATTENTION GETTER. IT SURE HAS MINE.
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Old 11-19-2001, 05:29 PM
ronscomputer ronscomputer is offline
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Take the dog on the ML at +200 or whatever it is, and also the favorite minus the points at -110. You will win money every time as long as the favorite doesnt win by less then the spread.
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Old 11-26-2001, 07:50 AM
Grandfather Grandfather is offline
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Results of posted contest games:
Straight up winner also covers....
Week 1...27-4
Week 2...28-2
Week 3...26-4

Total so far...81-10
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Old 11-26-2001, 06:41 PM
THE HITMAN THE HITMAN is offline
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RONS....THANKS FOR THE INPUT, BUD, POINT WELL TAKEN. I HAD THAT THOUGHT IN THE BACK OF MY MIND, ALSO. I AM NOT USUALLY A BIG FAN OF MONEY LINES, THO, I SEE TOO MANY 400/300'S ETC.(GOSH, WHERE DID MY $100 GO, THAT WAS QUICK). THE VIG ON THESE JUST SEEMS TO GROW & GROW AS THE MONTHS PASS. SOMETIMES I DONT DO A LOT OF SHOPPING AROUND, EITHER, SO I HAVE TO WORK WITH WHAT I HAVE. GOOD LUCK WITH EITHER ANGLE & HIT EM
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Old 11-26-2001, 10:44 PM
skoda skoda is offline
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89% amazing.....

This is why Atlanta and Phoenix are my picks in your contest tonight [img]smile.gif[/img]

Very good reminder for all GF, thanks
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Old 11-30-2001, 08:11 PM
iluvfootball iluvfootball is offline
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<blockquote>quote:[/size]Originally posted by ronscomputer:
Take the dog on the ML at +200 or whatever it is, and also the favorite minus the points at -110. You will win money every time as long as the favorite doesnt win by less then the spread.[/quote]

I don't think this angle works longterm. I've been trying to work the numbers but can't come up with any winning scenario.

Year to date, the favorite has won SU but not covered ATS about 20% of the time.

Exclude any spreads of -5.5 or higher and you get that down to about 3% of the time. However, to get into this relatively safe 3% zone, you no longer get good odds on the dog ML. Toss in a couple of Fave wins SU/Pushes ATS combos and you're losing money.

The only way to use this strategy effectively is to combine it with some sort of handicapping. Playing it purely as a system would seem to guarantee failure in the longrun.

Please tell me if there's some aspect of this strategy I'm missing.
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Old 11-30-2001, 08:38 PM
PhillyFanatic PhillyFanatic is offline
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Grandfather, thanks a million for the stat. I never realized that this angle worked with the NBA, and I very well may try this in the future.

I know the numbers work the same with college bowl games. I believe going into last year, the winner of bowl games since the early 90's covered the spread about 82% of the time. I will have to get the exact numbers, but the percentage is very high.

[ 11-30-2001: Message edited by: PhillyFanatic ]</p>
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Old 12-02-2001, 10:49 AM
Dnuggets Dnuggets is offline
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I have a couple of questions, are those your numbers picking the winners this year and if so where is that link to veiw them as i could not find that basketball contest you were talking about. And are you saying in the games that favorites win they pretty much always cover is that what your trying to get across? And does that mean that you only pick favorites in this contest pretty much or are then any underdogs in those numbers....thanks....id love to hear more about this if you want to email me at Dnuggets0@aol.com. Thanks...
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Old 12-02-2001, 01:50 PM
heels2nd20 heels2nd20 is offline
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This week in the contest I am 15-14, which trasnlates to 11-17-1 ATS. Picking that SU winnert isn't always easy. Especially in the WWF, er, NBA that is.
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Old 12-02-2001, 02:40 PM
ronscomputer ronscomputer is offline
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<blockquote>quote:[/size]Originally posted by iluvfootball:


I don't think this angle works longterm. I've been trying to work the numbers but can't come up with any winning scenario.

Year to date, the favorite has won SU but not covered ATS about 20% of the time.

Exclude any spreads of -5.5 or higher and you get that down to about 3% of the time. However, to get into this relatively safe 3% zone, you no longer get good odds on the dog ML. Toss in a couple of Fave wins SU/Pushes ATS combos and you're losing money.

The only way to use this strategy effectively is to combine it with some sort of handicapping. Playing it purely as a system would seem to guarantee failure in the longrun.

Please tell me if there's some aspect of this strategy I'm missing.
[/quote]


I dont do this and wasn't saying that I thought it would be profitable in the long run. I was just saying that if Grandfather belives what he posted he could make money by doing it. I dont play ML very often at all. However, NFL Atalnta +350 over Rams today may well hit it. Atlanta matches up very very well with the Rams. I have them on the ML and at + 7 1/2.
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Old 12-02-2001, 03:04 PM
Grandfather Grandfather is offline
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You have to repeat this to yourself untill it sinks in.

The straight up winner covers the spread.

No mention of dogs or favs. Just the winner of the game. This week so far in the contest games...21-2-1
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Old 12-02-2001, 03:08 PM
ronscomputer ronscomputer is offline
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If this proves to be a consistent trend, a lot of money could be made this way.

I am trying it for small plays today

Clippers - 4 1/2 $55/$50
Pacers ML + 165 $40/$66

Toronto -5 $55/$50
Celtics ML + 165 $40/$66
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Old 12-02-2001, 03:09 PM
ronscomputer ronscomputer is offline
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Miss hit 9 out 0f 10 to break even. Scratch my above comment " a lot of money can be made this way".
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  #16 (permalink)  
Old 12-03-2001, 04:31 AM
ronscomputer ronscomputer is offline
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Won $21. HeHe
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Old 12-03-2001, 05:31 AM
Kelt Kelt is offline
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Gramps,

How ya doing? Seems like this topic surfaces every year doesn't it? This is a great way to "handicap" the NBA.

Take Sunday for example, the straight up winner was 5-0. Can't top that!

I'll start to post my picks here again. Been on a good run. You know where to find me otherwise .

Kelt
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Old 12-03-2001, 07:31 AM
Grandfather Grandfather is offline
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Results of posted contest games:
Straight up winner also covers....
Week 1...27-4
Week 2...28-2
Week 3...26-4
Week 4...31-2-1
Total so far...111-12-1
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