Wimbledon

[jetman]

Posting Record 53-36 +8.06 Units

Wimbledon is certainly the toughest tournament to handicap, i really struggle to make the necessary adjustments for the surface, nonetheless getting the best numbers should mean a profitable fortnight.


Diaz v Malisse

Diaz is a bonafide claycourter, but really don't see Malisse having a huge advantage on this surface either. The Spaniard had a career best claycourt season, and he will be able to trouble Malisse, particularly if he is offered a target.

Rosset v Larsson

Two very similar players both at the twilight of their careers, Larsson only gets a start this week due to his injury protected raniking and the chances of "ring-rust" affecting him are pretty high. The wrong player is favored in this match.

Puentes v Puerta

Puentes is a Spaniard that has broken the mould and is better suited on faster courts, Puerta has battled wrist problems for over 12 months and i question how much he actually wants to be here, Puentes has the serve to give him many cheap points as a result i give him the edge.

Pavel v Rusedski

Huge price for a very capable player who has performed very well on grass in the past.

Tu v Osterloh

Despite returning to her best surface Osterloh has continued her woeful form this year, and is really struggling with her fitness and motivation, no such problems for Tu, who is extremely solid.

Schiavone v Irvin

The Italian made the quarters at Roland garros, and comfortably defeated the very pedestrian Irvin on grass, 10 days ago.

Suarez v Myskina

Suarez is another better suited on clay, but with both players set to stay at the back of the court, she does not have a huge disadvantage here, Suarez would be a firm favorite on all other surfaces and this price is an overreaction.

Frazier v Vavrinec

Very rarely loses against inferior opponents, she's short but she wins.

Rittner v Glass

Two Germans Rittner much better suited on this surface will attack the net, and pressure Glass into mistakes.

Diaz 3 units @5.50 Carib
Rosset 2 units @2.20 WSEX
Puentes 1 unit @2.25 BetInternet
Pavel 3 units @4.00 Olympic

Tu 2 units @1.80 Stan James
Schiavone 3 units @1.54 5 Dimes
Suarez 3 units @2.40 Centrebet
Frazier 2 units @1.28 Stan James
Rittner 1 unit @1.67 Stan james

[jetman]

Adding play on Todd Martin v Srichaphan

Martin loves and is well suited to Wimbledon, while Srichaphan has little to back up his often brittle serve and his volleys often miss their mark.

Martin 1 unit @1.43 GlobalSportsbet

[jetman]

Poor day yesterday, and my agressive staking plan certainly made it worse, more of the same today, so let's hope the resuts are kinder.

Wimbledon 5-5 - 8.47 Units

Gaudio v Canas

canas has been in brilliant for over the last 6 weeks, winning in casablanca, reaching the fourth round in the French and significantly making the final on Grass last week, losing to Hewitt. Gaudio has little experience on this surface but has plenty of experience with Canas and holds a 4-1 head to head advantage, these two practise together almost daily and that knowledge really limits Canas's advantage, look for gaudio to come through at a huge price.

Enqvist v Damm

Damm's finished, Enqvist easily.

Rafter v Vacek

Not often i get an overlay at -1000 but rafter will much too good.

Ljubicic v Schuttler

Ljubicic has a big serve and that has to giuve him an edge against Schuttler, who really plays better on high bouncing courts, this price is a huge oiverreaction to Schuttler's decent effort against Rusedski at Nottigham, take the value.

Tabara v Pioline

In my opinion, Pioline is really deep in the twilight of his career, fitness is a big concern here and he will have his handsful with very agressive tabara.

Coria v Meligeni

Two claycourters , Meligeni is always a query over five sets and the young Coria should let his talent do the talking today.

Schnyder v Nejedly

Schnyder has been in poor form of late but Nejedly is very pedestrian.

Petrova v Serna

Petrova has a true powere game, and despite Serna' grass court prowess, Pertova has the chance to blow here away

Gaudio 3 units @4.20 Centrebet
Enqvist 2 units @1.28 DirecBet
Rafter 1 unit @1.10 Direcbet
Ljubicic 2 units @2.40 Olympic
Tabara 3 units @4.50 Olympic
Coria 1 unit @1.83 Olympic
Schnyder 2 units @1.27 Olympic
Petrova 1 unit @2.62 Stan James

[jetman]

Adding Squillari over Vinciguerra, both players essentially claycourters and squillari blew him away at the French. The change of surface should not benefit Vinciguerra so much that it warrants a complete swap in the market.

Squillari 3 units @2.62 Stan james

[jetman]

Another horrible day, with two five set losses certainly not what i need it, 11 days left to salvage something.

9-10 -17.65 units

Puentes v Clement

Value play here on Puentes who comfortably defeated Puerta on day One. Clement 's ego has been running rampant since his great performance in Australia in january and has played poorly since then. With Clement not suited to Grass, there is a real live chance of an upset here.

Moya v Ivanisevic

Moya did it the hard way on day One coming from a 0-2 set deficit to defeat Godwin, a good perfomance and proof that he is keen to perform well this week, Ivanisevic could be playing in his last WQimbledon this year, and despite his brilliant record here, he is simply very likely to self-destruct.

Huber v Weingartner

Rarely loses to those below her, Weingartner will be all at sea on grass.

Frazier v Lee

As above, Frazier is a solid banker.

Gagliardi v Brandi

Brandi is an excellent grass court player, but is excessively favored against a very accomplished opponent who loves a target.

Puentes 2 units @4.30 carib
Moya 3 units @2.20 Surrey
Huber 1 unit @1.31 5 Dimes
Frazier 1 unit @1.41 Olympic
Gagliardi 1 unit @3.65 Olympic

[jetman]

Another poor day despite a clean sweep in the womens matches

12-12 -19.28 units

Mantilla v Black

Both players benefited from mid-match injuries by opponents, to take their place in the second round. Black is a grasscourt specialist and that statement only serves to point out how ordinary he is on other surfaces, got in the draw as a lucky loser and don't expect him to preogress further. Mantilla is an out of form claycourter but has perform credibly on grass in the past, good value against poor opponent.

Dosedel v Rafter

The net-rushing Dosedel is simply not as bad as this, made the US Open semis in 1999 after all.

Grosjean v Schuttler

Can't go past a guy that's made the semis of the last two majors and is a tournament winner on the surface, big price.

Shaughnessy v Marrero

Marrero is at sea away from clay, Shaughnessy should be too strong.

Kandarr v Schnyder

kandarr proved she can play beating mauresmo at the French, Schnyder is still in the wilderness and this could be tricky for her.

Torrens- Valero v Likhovtseva

Gritty Spaniard in the Ruano=Pascual mould, will fight to the death against solid but very beatable player, good value.

3 units @2.50 Mantilla Centrebet
1 unit @14.00 Dosedel Carib
2 units @1.47 Grosjean DirecBet
2 units @1.30 Shaughnessy Olympic
1 unit @2.25 Kandarr 5 Dimes
3 units @5.00 Torrens-Valero 5 Dimes

[turkoman1963]

jetman,

love your capping.

no point taking five cent winners on the dollar right?

Speaking of which, my lowest bet in a seven teamer is Cedric Pioline at .25 and lo and behold he's tied 5-5 tonight with play suspended. He actually fought off double match point.

[jetman]

Turk,

Well you certainly would have done fine buying 5 cents in the dollar this week, in fact most of the favs are winning without a hitch, and Bookmakers as usual at Wimbledon are getting a hiding. Alas, not from me.

14-16 -25.74 units

Sampras v Sargsian

Survived a scare in the second round, and will bounce back well today against outclassed opponent.

Safin v Prinosil

Not a huge fan of either of these guys, but safin's serve puts the odds in his favor, i believe he will appreciate Prinosil providing a target at the net,+ holds a 5-1 h/h advantage.

Clement v Sluiter

A couple of good wins by Clement so far this week, and Sluiter was too inconsistent for my liking against Woodbridge, good value.


Martinez v Osterloh

Osterloh benefited from sanchez Vicario's personal problems to cause the upset on Day 3, Martinez will be rock solid and rarely loses to inferior players.

Dementieva v Huber

Despite struggling thru her opening matches belive the Russian is good value against the often erratic Huber.

Sampras 1 unit @1.09 canbet
Safin 1 unit @1.55 canbet
Clement 1 unit @1.87 Canbet
Sampras/Clement 1 unit @2.03 Canbet
Martinez 3 units @1.40 Bet Internet
Dementieva 1 unit @2.00 Olympic

[jetman]

19-17 -23 units


Martin v Henman

Have to give martin a chance here, with Henman always succeptible to wilting under the pressures of the home crowd, Martin will stick with him all the way and has the experience to take advantage of any lapses.

Hewitt v Escude

Frenchman is simply too inconsistent to trouble the best players in the game, Hewitt has not been in brilliant form so far but finds a way to win and should do so again today.

Capriati v Testud

Testud has a terrible record against Top Five players things will be no easier today.

Williams v Maleeva

Serena looks awesome and is the girl to beat IMO, will buy some more money with this matchup.

Shaughnessy v Clijsters

Clijsters struggled just long enough against Montolio to suggest Shaughnessy has a real chance here, after a nice win against Coetzer on Saturday, worth a bet at the price.

davenport v Dokic

Lindsay is a great bet to make the final this week, she's rock solid on Grass and Dokic simply goes missing too often and IMO is vastly overeated.

Martin 1 unit @3.50 SportingOdds
Hewitt 1 unit @1.29 canbet
Capriati 1 unit @1.14 Olympic
S.Williams 1 unit @1.10 carib
Shaughnessy 3 units @3.35 Sport Odds
Davenport 3 units @1.33 Stan james

Hewitt/Capriati/Williams 1 unit @1.56 canbet

[Railbird]

Lindsay will go down in pile to Venus,Lindsay cannot hang with Venus,Its Venus' party and nobody is invited.Lindsay should eat less crispy creams.

[jetman]

22-20 -26.76 units


Henman v Martin

Henman has to benefit greatly from the overnight delay while for Martin who was on a roll it can only be a negative, look for Tim to have found a plan to beat Martin overnight, and bounce him this afternoon, great value.

My total plays on this match are now,

Martin 1 unit @3.50 SportingOdds
Henman 3 units @ 3.00 Sport Odds

[nehpets]

I liked that henman bet at 3.00,
now into 2.70

[jetman]

23-21 -21.76 units

Henman was a new man in the resumption of play, and won comfortably.

Agassi v Escude

Not much too like today, and will settle on an easy Agassi win over Escude, Escude benefited from a laclustre performance by Hewitt in the previous round , but really doubt he can cause a second successive upset.

1 unit @1.20 Agassi @ BetInternet

[el tiburon]

It is almost a sure thing to put money on Agassi. I don't see him losing three sets after having not lost a set all tournament!

[jetman]

Davenport v Williams

Can't say i've been real impressed with Venus so far this summer, while Lindsay has had a rock solid last three weeks since returning from injury, expect Lindsay to pour the pressure on to Venus, and the mistakes to flow freely as a result.

Henman v Ivanisevic

Enough is enough, simply can't see Goran continuing his brilliant serving for much longer, Henman won't throw this one away and looks like he's handling the pressure of playing infront of his home crowd , much better than in the past.

3 units @2.30 davenport - WSEX
3 units @1.80 Henman- Centrebet

[KentBrockman]

@jetman and other Aussies

Austrian bookmaker Admiral.at (unfortunatly they don´t accept bets from US, CAN, Switzerland and South Africa?) has sometimes a very special opinion in tennis.
For example they have Henman @2.2 and Rafter (if somebody should like him) @2.9.

Because they are by far the biggest bookmaker in Austria (about 50 betting shops) and have a solid financial background reliability should be no problem.

I don´t know their online limits, because I have a Admiral-betting-shop about 100 meters away from my appartment.

And the best thing is that they are not on Tip-EX.... and therefore they attract not that much attention .

[nehpets]

mouth watering odds
I like henman at 1.75 or better

[jetman]

Kent,

The European bookmakers can certainly throw up some bizarre prices despite their high vig. I certainly get a lot of scalping, middling action from Austrians who take advantage of these price variatons.

I was wondering if you knew of any European (not british) books that would take soccer bets in the range of 50,000 USD , i know there is certainly at least one out there but have no idea which.

[KentBrockman]

jetman,
I don´t know it at the moment, but I´ll ask -I have also heard of that thing - I´ll post, if there is a response.
But I must admit that 50.000 USD is not my average bet .