French Open

[alec]

Current balance: +14.2 (after 16 bets, each bet 10 units)

El Aynaoui vs. Medvedev 2 2.2 Direcbet

Head-to-Head: 1:1.

El Aynoui won recently in Miami on hard in a close match, while Medvedev won 3:0 in Morocco during Morocco vs. Ukraine Davis Cup match on clay.

Both players did rather poorly this season, maybe El Aynaoui did slightly better on clay. But in my opinion Medvedev is by far a better player.

Moreover he usually does very well in this tournament: in his 9 appearances there he lost in round 1 - once, in round 2 -once, reached round 4 - 4 times, reached quarterfinal, semifinal and final once.

His position in the ranking greatly depends on his performance in the French Open and I think Medvedev will do all he possibly can today.

I believe that 2.2 is definitely worth a try.

[Railbird]

last I heard Medvedev was talking about quitting the sport.dude is a total mental midget,he under achieved his whole career.

[Railbird]

Medvedev should quit

[alec]

Railbird,

I will open a thread "Medvedev" a little bit later.

Balance: +4.2

Henman-Schalken 2 2.15 Intertops

There are a lot of 2.2's around, but I don't have accounts at those books.

I think this is an even match. It looks like Henman has lost his great form that he had at the beginning of clay season. The last couple of weeks Schalken had better results.

Also in general I don't think that Henman is a better clay court player.

[alec]

Balance: -5.8

Not a good start of the tournament for me. That's what I bet today.

Sampras-BLANCO 2.3 Intertops

Not the best odds possible, but still good enough in my opinion.

I think that the odds should be about even. I saw Sampras's first round match and in my opinion he did pretty well, but nevertheless I think Blanco has at least even chances.

Santoro-RUSEDSKI 2.3 Intertops

Again if I had been faster, I could have gotten 2.4.

I believe that Santoro is a favorite in this match, but not to such extent. So in my opinion even 2.3 are OK.

BALCELLS-Arthurs 1.5 Intertops

I expected something like 1.3-1.35 on Balcells. I think if you take Arthurs's serve out of him there will be not too much left. He almost never play on clay, so I don't think he will be able to do much against Balcells, who had a decent clay court season.

P.S. I followed Boris's advice about notation.

[alec]

I forgot to add that Balcells bet is worth 20 points. The rest are 10 points as usual.

[alec]

Balance: -22.8

As usual, when I increase the bet size, I lose.

I didn't find anything to bet on today.

[The Actuary]

You correctly and often identified the over pricing of Sampras all year, it seems that if you genuinely like Blanco, on top of the inherent over price on Sampras that should of been the biggest wager.

Naturally this is hindsight and obviously my opinion.
TA

[alec]

BLANCO-Burgsmuller 1.5 Direcbet

I believe that the odds are good enough. I didn't expect Blanco to win so confidently his last match with Sampras. He must be in a pretty good form at the moment. Burgsmuller has achieved very little on clay and I don't overrate his wins over Prinosil and El Aynaoui.

Federer-SANCHEZ 2.5 Direcbet

The main reason that I go with Sanchez is that it took Federer five sets to go pass Sargsian. I may be as wrong as I was with Arthurs but as far as I remember Sargsian has achieved nothing on clay.

Agassi-MELIGENI 5.5 Olympic

6.0 were available at some point, but I missed it.

I think the odds are too high on Meligeni. He has had a very poor season on clay so far, but Agassi has not done anything on clay either. Lapenti has been in a good shape lately, so Meligeni's second round win means something. So I'll give it a try.

[alec]

The Actuary,

I thought that Blanco (against Sampras) was more overpriced than Rusedski (who probably was not overpriced at all). So maybe I should have reflected it in the bet sizes somehow.

But I really couldn't imagine Arthurs advancing into the third round. Obviously I was wrong. I wish I could watch the match now.

[alec]

Federer-Sanchez match was not completed yesterday, so I will count everything tomorrow. It doesn't look nice anyway.

Kafelnikov-ROBREDO

I will go with Boris on this one, don't have anything significant to add.

[alec]

Robredo was 2.6 at Olympic. Not that it matters now.

Balance: -47.8

[alec]

Grosjean-BLANCO 2.6 DAS

2.6 are the best I could get. Interestingly DAS opened at 1.45/2.7, and then went to 1.4/2.8 and then to 1.5/2.6.

In my opinion, it is not even clear that Grosjean is a favorite in this match.

Blanco is one of the two players who defeated Ferrero on clay this season. Grosjean lost to Sampras in Dusseldorf, while Blanco convincingly defeated him in the second round.

I don't think the odds are right. But I was wrong so many times during French Open...

[alec]

Balance; -57.8

CORRETJA-Federer 1.45 Direcbet 20 units

I think that tomorrow the odds on Corretja will be rather lower than higher. But if anything better will be available to me tomorrow, I will probably add some money on Corretja.

[alec]

Balance: -48.8

KUERTEN-Ferrero 2.1 Direcbet

I doubt I will be able to get a better price tomorrow, so I take it now.

I do not think that Ferrero is a favorite in this match.

Ferrero has better results in the tournaments preceding French Open and in my opinion that is the only reason why Ferrero is considered a favorite by some books.

Ferrero has not played any serious clay court players so far in this tournament (except Diaz maybe), while Kuerten had a pretty tough road to the semifinal. Also I think that Kuerten's experience will be a factor on Friday.

[alec]

I was mistaken about Kuerten's odds. I could have easily taken him at at least 2.2, but don't want to increase the stake.

CORRETJA - Grosjean 1.67 Direcbet

Not the best price possible either, but still good enough in my opinion.