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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 05-27-2001, 10:29 PM
The Actuary The Actuary is offline
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Default ACTUARY IN FRANCE
MW Posting record $28/$386=+7.2%

I'm aware one Sampras is included in tomorrow's plays as a huge favorite but......

Expert Opinions Please.
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T 87 5/28 CHRIS WOODRUFF VS ALBERT MONTANES (FRANCE)
05/27/2001 18:18:20 Wagered $10.00 to win $15.00 on CHRIS WOODRUFF Unsettled

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T 65 5/28 PETE SAMPRAS VS CEDRIC KAUFFMANN (FRANCE)
05/27/2001 18:17:59 Wagered $70.00 to win $10.00 on PETE SAMPRAS Unsettled

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T 61 5/28 JONAS BJORKMAN VS NIKOLA DAVYDENKO (FRANCE)
05/27/2001 18:17:26 Wagered $10.00 to win $14.00 on NIKOLA DAVYDENKO Unsettled

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T 53 5/28 JIRI VANEK VS ALBERTO MARTIN (FRANCE)
05/27/2001 18:16:30 Wagered $10.00 to win $23.00 on JIRI VANEK Unsettled

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T 23 5/28 VLADIMIR VOLTCHKOV VS J.R.LISNARD (FRANCE)
05/27/2001 18:16:04 Wagered $10.00 to win $11.00 on J.R.LISNARD Unsettled

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T 21 5/28 T ROBREDO VS RAEMON SLUITER (FRANCE)
05/27/2001 18:15:33 Wagered $10.00 to win $22.00 on RAEMON SLUITER


Go Petey!
Good Luck.
TA
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 05-28-2001, 12:06 AM
el tiburon el tiburon is offline
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What ever happened to that Voltchkov guy! One year he is in the Wimbleton finals (with one racquet and one pair of shoes, one heck of a story) then you don't hear from him again.
TA don't go to far with Sampras (one or two rounds).
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 05-29-2001, 01:53 AM
The Actuary The Actuary is offline
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Day 2, Am a minor winner in day 1, I'll total after these matches.

El, No doubt about Petey, am hoping to steal a couple a bux in the opener. I'm not sure of Voltchkov but am sure he's headed home.

Expert opinion please.

T 99 5/29 JUAN BALCELLS VS NICOLAS KIEFER (FRANCE)
05/28/2001 21:42:32 Wagered $12.00 to win $10.00 on NICOLAS KIEFER Unsettled

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T107 5/29 SARGIS SARGSIAN VS CHRISTIAN RUUD (FRANCE)
05/28/2001 21:42:16 Wagered $10.00 to win $14.00 on SARGIS SARGSIAN Unsettled

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T 85 5/29 MARTIN DAMM VS A.STOLIAROV (FRANCE)
05/28/2001 21:41:13 Wagered $10.00 to win $17.00 on MARTIN DAMM Unsettled

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T 81 5/29 FRANCO SQUILLARI VS JAN SIEMERINK (FRANCE)
05/28/2001 21:40:52 Wagered $37.00 to win $10.00 on FRANCO SQUILLARI Unsettled

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T105 5/29 STAFANO GALVANI VS ROGER FEDERER (FRANCE)
05/28/2001 21:40:33 Wagered $10.00 to win $38.00 on STAFANO GALVANI Unsettled

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T 69 5/29 DAVID PRINOSIL VS LARS BURGSMULLER (FRANCE)
05/28/2001 21:39:56 Wagered $10.00 to win $13.00 on DAVID PRINOSIL Unsettled

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T 67 5/29 RAINER SCHUTTLER VS GALO BLANCO (FRANCE)
05/28/2001 21:39:43 Wagered $10.00 to win $17.00 on RAINER SCHUTTLER Unsettled

Plus the two unsettled above Petey and Woodie.

Good luck,
TA



[This message has been edited by The Actuary (edited 05-28-2001).]
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In 1998 the Department of Justice brought charges under the Wire Act against 22 American citizens involved in managing foreign-based sites. "You can’t hide online," Janet Reno, the attorney-general, warned Internet betting operators, "and you can’t hide offshore."
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 05-29-2001, 09:51 AM
Railbird Railbird is offline
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Sampras will tank,so he can be a kiss-ass Laker fan,he will be sitting coutside of Lakers Finals game 1.
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 05-29-2001, 09:41 PM
The Actuary The Actuary is offline
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RB, The gutless one fought off a 5th set break and multiple match points to squeak by someone I never heard of.....wtg Petey, seems a long, long time if ever Sampras will be on a ticket in my pocket.

MW Record $5/$607=less than 1%

French Record -23/221=-10.5%

Only one tomorrow as it seems I was late to market and the values had been taken. Seems like laying a lotta wood but......

T 31 5/30 NIKOLA DAVYDENKO VS LLEYTON HEWITT (FRANCE: 2ND ROUND)
05/29/2001 17:29:26 Wagered $90.00 to win $10.00 on LLEYTON HEWITT Unsettled

Good Luck
TA
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 05-29-2001, 10:50 PM
Railbird Railbird is offline
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Why do you want to risk 90bucks to win a sandwich?especially on an 18yr old punk like that,who is thousands of miles from home.
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 05-29-2001, 11:52 PM
nehpets nehpets is offline
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hewitt is 20 yrs old
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 05-30-2001, 07:10 AM
boris boris is offline
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and ranked six in the world....

Cedric Kauffman is best known as the player who lost to a 44 year-old in a challenger event in Hawaii last January. Former ATP pro Gene Mayer was in Hawaii on a family holiday and went to the player party. There was a spot left in the draw, and he was talked into playing, probably after a few beers. He rolled up and defeated a very pissed off Kauffman.

Mayer is a former top 10 player during the 80s and plays in several of the senior tour events.
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  #9 (permalink)  
Old 05-30-2001, 08:10 AM
AussieVamp2 AussieVamp2 is offline
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a lot of 18 year old punks 1000s of miles from home in say, college football, basketball as well
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  #10 (permalink)  
Old 05-31-2001, 12:16 AM
The Actuary The Actuary is offline
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Boris, Thanks for the story, was rather entertaining.

RB, I came up with an avg. price of -2000, naturally the -5000's I found I included and probably shooudn't have. If you consider the match was scalpable, the -900 represented at least a 5% edge. So I included it. I've only been experimenting with value betting Tennis and am trying to adhere to a similar formula that works in other sports. Twas only 90 bux, I'd rather include all that fit within the criteria and subjectively eliminate some matches later if the formula keeps my returns plus or close to even......the only change I've been making is if other's opinions I respect like one of my matches I add some bux to the bet.....else am goin with the system till I have more results, then the tinkering begins.

MW Posting Record $15/$697=+2%
French Open -13/311=-4%

Am certain you'll feel better RB, as two dogs for tomorrow.

Expert Opinions please, am aware am betting against Agassi, after stating support, but the prices determine my opinions.

T 47 5/31 JULIEN BOUTTER VS ANDRE AGASSI (FRENCH: 2ND ROUND)
05/30/2001 19:55:33 Wagered $10.00 to win $60.00 on JULIEN BOUTTER Unsettled

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T 35 5/31 LARS BURGSMULLER VS YOUNES EL AYNAOUI (FRENCH: 2ND ROUND)
05/30/2001 19:55:20 Wagered $10.00 to win $20.00 on LARS BURGSMULLER Unsettled

Good Luck.
TA



[This message has been edited by The Actuary (edited 05-30-2001).]
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In 1998 the Department of Justice brought charges under the Wire Act against 22 American citizens involved in managing foreign-based sites. "You can’t hide online," Janet Reno, the attorney-general, warned Internet betting operators, "and you can’t hide offshore."
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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 05-31-2001, 10:18 PM
The Actuary The Actuary is offline
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Jet thanks for the good report on Burgsmuller won a couple extra bux, ty.

MW Posting Record $25/$717=3.5%
French Record -3/331=-1%

T 11 6/1 JIRI NOVAK VS THOMAS ENQVIST (FRENCH:3RD ROUND)
05/31/2001 17:45:04 Wagered $10.00 to win $12.00 on JIRI NOVAK Unsettled

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T 1 6/1 GUSTAVO KUERTEN VS KARIM ALAMI (FRENCH:3RD ROUND)
05/31/2001 17:44:48 Wagered $10.00 to win $75.00 on KARIM ALAMI Unsettled


Expert Opinions please.
Good Luck
__________________
In 1998 the Department of Justice brought charges under the Wire Act against 22 American citizens involved in managing foreign-based sites. "You can’t hide online," Janet Reno, the attorney-general, warned Internet betting operators, "and you can’t hide offshore."
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 06-02-2001, 04:43 AM
The Actuary The Actuary is offline
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Boy, the good prices dissappear early, was a couple minutes late yesterday and miss out on a huge chunk of change on Novak. Who incidentally battles bravely, down two sets, to lose 8-6 in the 5th, it stings. Now I'm on vacation and 5 hours late and could only find one juicy price left.

MW Posting Record +$5/$737=less than 1%
French Record -23/351=-6.5%

T 19 6/2 A. DUPUIS VS SEBASTIEN GROSJEAN (FRENCH:3RD ROUND)
06/01/2001 23:59:31 Wagered $10.00 to win $24.00 on A. DUPUIS Unsettled

Good Luck.
TA
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Old 06-02-2001, 06:32 AM
boris boris is offline
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with you today, Actuary, and there are a few others too. Analysis on my site (see profile for URL)

Dupuis 3.40
Sanchez 2.40
Santoro 2.45
Montanes 3.00
Black 5.50
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Old 06-02-2001, 02:28 PM
AussieVamp2 AussieVamp2 is offline
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got that 1% going again eh?
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Old 06-03-2001, 04:18 AM
The Actuary The Actuary is offline
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AV,AM happy you actually looked.

Now actually minus. Hopefully only for a short time.

MW Record -5/747=less than 1%
French -33/361 , seems I only like FRENCH frys.

Lost another toughy with that Dupis falling in 5 sets, is the first time Boris we agree and fail, I think.

Am still on Vacation, so I was very late to market. Still found one for today.

T 3 6/3 T ROBREDO VS YEVGENY KAFELNIKOV (FRENCH: 4TH ROUND)
06/03/2001 00:08:40 Wagered $18.00 to win $10.00 on YEVGENY KAFELNIKOV Unsettled

Good Luck all. Got to try to get on the right side of the 1% today AV.

TA
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Old 06-03-2001, 12:20 PM
AussieVamp2 AussieVamp2 is offline
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if you are doing the same thing in tennis though, same problem, less variety of lines, or has that done better over a significantly large sample?
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Old 06-03-2001, 03:37 PM
The Actuary The Actuary is offline
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AV,

Yes, I'm doing the same thing. But, I have far to few samples to draw any solid conclusions yet. It does seem though the early rounds have provided enough variance in the line to show a little more than 2%, but the later rounds the lines tighten up quite abit, forcing me to include any positive return even if only slightly over even.

However, I have much greater access to live tennis matches. So the hope is this will stay somewhere slightly above even through the end of the year, next year I will attempt to add 10% subjectivity which is double what I add for soccer, via handicapping. Plus the 5% I use now in soccer is overstated, because most matches I really add nothing, as I cannot find resources for such things as Brazil Cup etc..

I have also been playing the odd golf match and Nascar match if the parameters fit. Naturally there is enormous material to form an opinion there, so I'm optimistic.

Alas, though I have obtained real employment in the last week, so my days of trawling for hours and hours looking for value have temporarily ceased.

TA
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  #18 (permalink)  
Old 06-05-2001, 10:45 PM
The Actuary The Actuary is offline
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I could find nothing the past two days.

Going to the women's side for tomorrow.

MW Record +$5/$765=less than 1%
French Record -23/379=-6%

T 13 6/6 KIM CLIJSTERS VS JUSTINE HENIN (FRENCH: SEMIS)
06/05/2001 18:36:37 Wagered $13.00 to win $10.00 on JUSTINE HENIN Unsettled

Good luck everyone.
TA

Drunken Goon if you are around, I'm curious where that parlay vs future stands. It seemed you were going to be correct, given some of the short odds in early matches, but I noticed Kuerten at even tomorrow. So it seems it should be close now.


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Old 06-10-2001, 02:02 AM
The Actuary The Actuary is offline
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Rough French Open for me.

MW Posting Record -$8/$769= little more than-1%

French Record=-36/392

T 3 6/10 GUSTAVO KUERTEN VS ALEX CORRETJA (MENS FRENCH OPEN FINAL)
06/09/2001 17:08:15 Wagered $10.00 to win $29.00 on ALEX CORRETJA Unsettled

Good luck
TA


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