HAMBURG 2ND ROUND-ACTUARY STYLE

The Actuary · 05-15-2001, 10:34 PM

Alec,
I'm sorry for impeding in your thread, I consider, yours and other's opinions here invaluable, and did not wish to clutter your work. Plus, you had to get a hardy laugh at our boxing friend trying to explain how long-term probability is meaningless to him. We need to find a way to get him and others of his ilk to bet tennis

Boris, I definetly need help paring down my matches, but waiting till the last minute wipes out these good prices. Please post the yahoo club again, as I think I can now contribute and would like to join.

1st round -$19 or -11.1% roi, hope things are better tommorrow.
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T231 5/16 GASTON GAUDIO VS MARAT SAFIN (HAMBURG)
05/15/2001 18:20:56 Wagered $10.00 to win $17.00 on GASTON GAUDIO Unsettled

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T229 5/16 LLEYTON HEWITT VS FERNANDO VICENTE (HAMBURG)
05/15/2001 18:20:41 Wagered $10.00 to win $26.00 on FERNANDO VICENTE Unsettled

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T225 5/16 MAGNUS NORMAN VS ALBERT PORTAS (HAMBURG)
05/15/2001 18:20:24 Wagered $18.00 to win $10.00 on MAGNUS NORMAN Unsettled

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T223 5/16 CEDRIC PIOLINE VS NICOLAS ESCUDE (HAMBURG)
05/15/2001 18:19:37 Wagered $10.00 to win $11.00 on NICOLAS ESCUDE Unsettled

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T221 5/16 B ULIHRACH VS ALBERT COSTA (HAMBURG)
05/15/2001 18:19:21 Wagered $14.00 to win $10.00 on ALBERT COSTA Unsettled

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T217 5/16 H. LEVY VS JUAN CARLOS FERRERO (HAMBURG)
05/15/2001 18:19:04 Wagered $10.00 to win $31.00 on H. LEVY Unsettled

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T211 5/16 FRANCO SQUILLARI VS MICHAEL CHANG (HAMBURG)
05/15/2001 18:17:40 Wagered $10.00 to win $18.50 on MICHAEL CHANG Unsettled

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T209 5/16 ANDREW ILIE VS LARS BURGSMULLER (HAMBURG)
05/15/2001 18:17:12 Wagered $10.00 to win $16.50 on LARS BURGSMULLER Unsettled

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T207 5/16 ALBERTO MARTIN VS ALEX CALATRAVA (HAMBURG)
05/15/2001 18:16:54 Wagered $10.00 to win $14.00 on ALEX CALATRAVA Unsettled

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T205 5/16 AUGUSTIN CALLERI VS SEBASTIEN GROSJEAN (HAMBURG)
05/15/2001 18:16:42 Wagered $14.00 to win $10.00 on SEBASTIEN GROSJEAN Unsettled

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T203 5/16 ANDRE AGASSI VS F SANTORO (HAMBURG)
05/15/2001 18:16:20 Wagered $10.00 to win $29.00 on F SANTORO Unsettled

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T201 5/16 MARCELO RIOS VS JAN-MICHAEL GAMBILL (HAMBURG)
05/15/2001 18:16:06 Wagered $10.00 to win $19.00 on JAN-MICHAEL GAMBILL

Please all comments encouraged.
Thank you,
TA

[This message has been edited by The Actuary (edited 05-15-2001).]

boris · 05-16-2001, 04:10 AM

tennisodds-subscribe@yahoogroups.com is the list, and as mentioned previously, it's a contributors' list not one for silent members. Novices are welcome. but they need to get involved.

As mentioned in the previous thread, I'm not particularly sharp this week coming off a two-week holiday, but here are some pointers.

For odds comparison and easy h2h records, http://www.infobetting.com/comp/tensto.htm

That site will not list US bookies, so you have an advantage of knowing 'hidden' bookies. The Tip-Ex site does list most of them though, so the secret won't last long.

For detailed results, stats etc....
www.atptennis.com www.itftennis.com
stevegtennis.com

Today's games....

Gaudio v Safin - I'm a fan of Gaudio, but his results in the past month haven't been as impressive as I'd have liked. Safin is still risky, but he will turn it around soon once he gets his head right - the injury has been fine for weeks. I'd probably need 3.00 before I backed Gaudio.

Hewitt v Vicente - The Aussie is looking to defy Samson after cutting his hair, and turning his cap around the right way. His efforts in Brazil, winning the Davis Cup tie single-handedly show he is the best Aussie on clay for at least 25 yrs, and if the French Open was seeded like Wimbledon in years gone by (discretion rather than purely rankings), then he'd be a top 5 seed. The +260 on Vicente is quite big though (can scalp with 1.40 at Ladbrokes) and by taking the 'overs'. you won't go wrong in the long run. I'd mark the Spaniard at about +240.

Norman v Portas - Norman is having an awful year, but this is his preferred surface. Scalpable with 3.25 at Ladbrokes for Portas. Record is 3-2 to Norman, with the last result going to Portas in Barcelona recently when the Swede withdrew due to illness. Couldn't take Norman at the short price, 3.25 for Portas is probably 50c too high.

Pioline v Escude - 2-2 h2h, with Escude having won the past two. They have not met officially on clay. This is a flip-a-coin match, take 2.10 or better on either player.

Costa v Ulihrach - Costa's long-term record is better, holding a 3-2 record in h2h, and not dropping a set in their two meetings on clay. However, his form this year is nowhere near that - losing to Henman on clay twice, and a 2001 record of 5-9. Ulihrach took Hewitt to 7-5 in the 3rd last week, and beat the seeded Clement in R1. Ulihrach a chance, but I'd need 2.25 before I opened my wallet.

Ferrero v Levy - Levy went well last week, makling the quarter-finals in Rome, but he didn't beat anyone who classed as good on clay - Sampras (in his current mental state, he could lose to Mauresmo on clay), Clavet (Spaniard whose results are better on hardcourt these days) and Kiefer (Mr Pea-heart himself). Ferrero showed his mind is still on the job coming from a set down to beat Bruguera. The +310 for Levy is probably the best around, worth a nibble at best, he has a very tough task ahead of him.

Squillari v Chang - Squillari plays his best in Germany for some reason, but this season has been quite inconsistent. Both players were flogged by Kuerten last week, Squillari managed to win three games rather than two. Squillari beating Federer is a better formline than Chang defeating Gustafsson, would need at least +220 to look at Chang.

Ilie v Burgsmuller - Favour Ilie, but Burgsmuller goes well at home. Don't get too excited in his win over Henman. Would need +180 to get interested myself.

Martin v Calatrava - Very even match. Martin only made the main draw as a lucky loser, Calatrava is a gritty fighter. Martin should only be slight favourite at best, and thus the 2.40 is great value.

Calleri v Grosjean - Probably took the best price around on Grosjean, smart move. I do give Calleri a chance here, but Grosjean should be around the -160 mark.

Agassi v Santoro - 3-2 record to Agassi, but 2-0 in the last six yrs. I think Andre can sniff there's a Slam around the corner and should be on his game this week. First meeting on clay, no real advantage to either player. Looks best price on Santoro, but might not be enough.

Rios v Gambill - Who knows what Rios is going to do after being arrested last week for being the complete wanker that he is...
Enormous amount of money, a stunning teenage bride, oodles of talent, and the personality of a 2.5 mol bottle of sulphuric acid. Gambill isn't much of a clay player, but the +190 is/was best around and worth a look.

boris · 05-16-2001, 07:59 PM

not a bad day at all Mr Actuary, if you'd only stuck to the outsiders and thrown in Portas instead of Norman, it would have been a bonanza....