Hamburg

[alec]

Medvedev vs. Popp 1 1.5 Olympic

Medvedev has won Hamburg three times. I think he is in not so bad form now, despite his not s? impressive results.

I don't know much about Popp, has seen him only once during Wimbledon. But I don't think he is particularly good on clay.

Sampras vs. Calatrava 2 2.6 Intertops

I don't think that the odds are right. In my estimation it is about even match.

Calatrava has just defeated Agassi in Rome and lost a very close match to Mantilla. Also he is having a good clay court season so far.

Sampras is going to play his second match on clay this season, lost to Levy in Rome.

Why Sampras is such significant favorite is beyond me.

[OZ]

because his name is Sampras

Who cares that the game is on clay

but clay is a different world

[nehpets]

good call against sampras

[OZ]

yes good call alex

you must of got all 2.6 at intertops... not there when I had a look 2.5

[alec]

Thanks. The first winning day, since I started counting my balance here at MW. I hope it won't be the last one.

+16 units yesterday (every bet 10 units), therefore the current balance is -23+16=-7 units.

OZ,

I wrote down the odds from Intertops and the line was 1.45-2.5. I was going to bet at 2.5, reload and it was 1.4-2.6. So I took 2.6 and went to bed. They probably moved the line back later.

There is NO WAY my bet may force any book to move the line. Absolutely no way.

[The Actuary]

LOL,

Excellent call, seems the dogs are the place to be, as Henman went down too. Lucky for you Popp was a scratch, I went with quite a few first round dogs, including Popp(ironically not Calatrava), saw Medvedev lost and then saw cancelled bet as Popp had withdrawn.

For those who care I valubet Tennis and am new to it so I'm playing the most minor stakes I can. WSEX is my main out and seem to generally overvalue favorites in Tennis. My first round action was:

WAYNE FERREIRA VS FERNANDO VICENTE (HAMBURG)
05/14/2001 22:23:53 Wagered $10.00 to win $12.00 on FERNANDO VICENTE Unsettled

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T133 5/15 MAGNUS NORMAN VS MARC ROSSET (HAMBURG)
05/14/2001 22:23:33 Wagered $10.00 to win $16.00 on MARC ROSSET Unsettled

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T111 5/15 NICOLAS LAPENTTI VS RAINER SCHUTTLER (HAMBURG)
05/14/2001 22:23:06 Wagered $10.00 to win $21.00 on RAINER SCHUTTLER Unsettled

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T103 5/15 DAVID PRINOSIL VS THOMAS JOHANSSON (HAMBURG)
05/14/2001 22:22:18 Wagered $10.00 to win $16.00 on DAVID PRINOSIL Unsettled

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T135 5/15 VLADIMIR VOLTCHKOV VS ALBERT PORTAS (HAMBURG)
05/13/2001 21:09:50 Wagered $10.00 to win $24.00 on VLADIMIR VOLTCHKOV Unsettled

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T163 5/15 JENS KNIPPSCHILD VS MARAT SAFIN (HAMBURG)
05/13/2001 19:19:19 Wagered $10.00 to win $25.00 on JENS KNIPPSCHILD Unsettled

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T149 5/15 LLEYTON HEWITT VS ARNAUD DE PASQUATE (HAMBURG)
05/13/2001 19:19:04 Wagered $10.00 to win $26.00 on ARNAUD DE PASQUATE Unsettled

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T141 5/15 DOMINIK HRBATY VS TOMMY HAAS (HAMBURG)
05/13/2001 19:18:45 Wagered $18.00 to win $10.00 on TOMMY HAAS Unsettled

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T131 5/15 NICOLAS ESCUDE VS YEVGENY KAFELNIKOV (HAMBURG)
05/13/2001 19:18:29 Wagered $21.00 to win $10.00 on YEVGENY KAFELNIKOV Unsettled

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T125 5/15 ARNAULD CLEMENT VS B ULIHRACH (HAMBURG)
05/13/2001 19:18:13 Wagered $10.00 to win $10.00 on B ULIHRACH Unsettled

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T 59 5/14 MAGNUS GUSTAFSSON VS MICHAEL CHANG (HAMBURG)
05/13/2001 19:17:49 Wagered $11.00 to win $10.00 on MAGNUS GUSTAFSSON Lost Straight Wager

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T 55 5/14 LARS BURGSMULLER VS TIM HENMAN (HAMBURG)
05/13/2001 19:17:34 Wagered $10.00 to win $28.00 on LARS BURGSMULLER Won Straight Wager

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T 53 5/14 ANDREW LLIE VS JUAN BALCELLS (HAMBURG)
05/13/2001 19:17:19 Wagered $10.00 to win $13.00 on ANDREW LLIE Won Straight Wager

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T 45 5/14 ALEXANDER POPP VS ANDREI MEDVEDEV (HAMBURG)
05/13/2001 19:17:05 Wagered $10.00 to win $18.50 on ALEXANDER POPP Cancelled Straight Wager

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T 37 5/14 YOUNES EL AYNAOUI VS AUGUSTIN CALLERI (HAMBURG)
05/13/2001 19:16:49 Wagered $10.00 to win $10.00 on AUGUSTIN CALLERI Won Straight Wager

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T 13 5/14 A. DUPUIS VS H. LEVY (HAMBURG)
05/13/2001 19:16:23 Wagered $10.00 to win $13.00 on A. DUPUIS Lost Straight Wager

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This will only be the third tourney I've bet, but early returns suggest value betting has a place here too. I'm sure many handicappers can find losers in here(Rosset's serve and volley) etc...but its hard to find many better prices, I know there are a few out there, but by and large I'm receiving the better end of the prices.

TA



[This message has been edited by The Actuary (edited 05-15-2001).]

[OZ]

yes I know alex.. just joking with you mate

[The Actuary]

For those in the know.......where did all the Gustafson money come from?......closing odds were all around Gustafson -150. Am new but it seemed like a large move for a first round match,or are first rounds usually more volatile in pricing?
Thank you
TA

BTW-PJ, I don't handicap this much, but I do obviously disagree with Chelsea. I temper a little bit with expert opinion, but I wholeheartedly expect Kafelnikov to bounce back after his loss to Diaz, who by the way subsequently won. Am aware -210 is a very steep hill, but that's why I'm experimenting with such low stakes.

LASTLY, CONGRATS ROCKETMAN ON YOUR CONTEST VICTORY, EXCELLENT EFFORT TURK OFFICIAL CHARTIST SAYS "MISSED BY A NOSE"
[This message has been edited by The Actuary (edited 05-15-2001).]

[This message has been edited by The Actuary (edited 05-15-2001).]

[boris]

you're on the right track Actuary, now you've got to work out why some of these guys are those prices.

Backing outsiders will work for you, but you have to be picky.

I've been on holidays for the last couple of weeks, I'll start getting active on here soon...

[The Actuary]

Thank you Boris,

I am definetly in need of some expert opinions.

For those who care -19/170=-11.1% ROI, I'll post who I have in the second round, please provide insight, as I agree, but do not yet have the skills needed to be choosy.

Thank You,
TA

[This message has been edited by The Actuary (edited 05-15-2001).]

[alec]

Kiefer vs. T.Martin 1 1.66 Direcbet

I believe that Kiefer is a significantly better clay court player. He played much more matches on clay this year than T.Martin; and his latest results indicate that he is getting in form.

Also in my opinion Kiefer's first round win against Pavel means more than Martin's win over Enqvist.

I think that 1.66 is good enough.

[alec]

+6.6 units yesterday. So current balance is -0.4 units.

Ferrero vs. Lapentti 2 3.4 Olympic

I will try this for the second time. I believe that the first two rounds suggest that Ferrero might be getting tied, which would be only natural, given the number of matches he played recently.

On the other hand, I think that Lapentti is getting better.

Anyway I believe that 3.4 is a good price.

Costa vs. Escude 1 1.66 Direcbet

I don't know if it is different this year, but before the courts in Hamburg used to be very slow (one of the reasons why Medvedev won this event three times). I believe that Costa has a significant advantage in such conditions.

Grosjean vs. Portas 2 2.15 Intertops

I think that Grosjean is not in the form he used to be in Monte Carlo. Not too impressive first two matches in Hamburg, and he lost to Vinciguerra last week.

Portas is doing well and in my opinion this match is about even. So 2.15 is good enough.

[alec]

+8.1 unit yesterday. So now I am +7.1 unit after 12 bets (each bet 10 units).

I will pass today.

I have been thinking about Costa @1.62 at Intertops. I believe that Costa is one of the best clay court players in the world when he is in form. And it seems that he is getting in form at the moment.

Still I am not sure that 1.62 is high enough. Therefore I decided to pass.

[alec]

I will pass the final.

I made an error in my previous post 8.1-0.4=7.7 not 7.1.

So my current balance is a +7.7 unit after 12 bets (each bet is 10 units).

This week was good: +30.7 units after 6 bets.