thursday bases

[mark]

2-4 (+0.30 units) yesterday
140-114 (+45.43 units) overall


What a strange day yesterday. I won both my three unit plays again, but lost everything else. Thank goodness three of the losing four were dogs and the other was only a 115 favorite. A winning night is a winning night, no matter how small. I will gladly take the plus 0.35 units for the night....not bad for going 2-4 I would say.

I have notice a lot of big favs (200 plus or higher have been losing. I usually play the runline in those games to be safe and that has saved me recently from some really bad nights. Some of those big dogs might be worth a shot this time of year. Lets try this again.

Missed the three early games, but I did not like anybody in those anyway, too big of favs in two of the three games, that does not leave a full schedule at night, so it does not look like my usual amount of plays for Thursday night. Here we go.

Phillies -133 vs Washington (3 units)............I hope I am not going to the well one time too many here. Randy Wolf is 3-0 and the phillies are 6-0in his starts. The phils bats, led by Ryan Howard remain hot. The nationals have nothing but Alfonso Soriano and that is a good thing. He is a phillies killer. If the phils lose tonights game, I can almost gaurantee he is a big reason why. This lit Astachio up the last time he pitched as well. Everything just points to another phillies win. With San Diego not playing tonight, the phils can move into a tie for the wildcard. That seems like a small miracle when you look back to the last week of July when they became sellers before the trade deadline.

San Fran +174 vs Atlanta (3 units).............Yes Smoltz is pitching and he has been doing great, but he is due for a not so great game. It is not like he is opposing some chump either. Morris is not having the year like he is capable of, but he did throw a three hitter his last time out, so to get a pitcher like that as this big a dog looks pretty good to me. The braves are not unbeatable at home like they used to be. Sure this game could lose easily, but I like my chances at these odds. Real great value in my eyes.

Florida +110 vs St Louis (2 units).................Florida lost lasts night to the cards. That does not mean they have turned cold all of a sudden. Everybody was talking about how hot they were before last nights game. Now we get Willis as a dog. I am all over this. It really does not need much of an explanation. Cards have not been the same team this year and we get a hot marlin team with their best pitcher throwing as a dog. No brainer here.

Houston -191 vs Milwaukee (2 units)..........I hate laying these kinds of odds, but I am afraid to play the runline with these astros and their inability to score once in a while. These two teams are going in opposite directions. Milwaukee is no where near the same road team as they are at home. The Brewers' Doug Davis (9-8, 5.17) will try again for his first win at Minute Maid Park. In eight career starts there, the left-hander is 0-7 with a 5.52 ERA. Pettitte has allowed two runs or less in four of six August starts, so he apparently is throwing the ball better.

I think I am going to stop at four plays tonight. I don't want to force anything. I am only working a half day Friday, so I am going to post my plays sometime in the afternoon. I am off work for the next six days and the wife and I are staying home, not going anywhere. That gives me plenty of time to research the first full week of college football and the first week of the regular season in the nfl. I am very excited.

Good Luck Everybody!!