RUN PRODUCTION AN OVERLOOKED KEY TO SUCCESS IN BASEBALL HANDICAPPING

[kris]

We'll take the teams division by division, looking at runs scored so far. Use this information in your selections this week. Be very careful backing a team that isn't scoring any runs…and consider some side and Over parlays on the teams that are.

We've listed the teams in standings order to help reinforce how all the teams have started in general so far. Note that we include the average and the median numbers for each team. One of the most important keys to handicapping "expectations" in all sports is to know the difference between the two. The average is simply the total scored divided by the number of games played. The median is the midpoint of production. You'll find over time that the median is a much more accurate predictor of future actions. In baseball particularly, averages are warped by big scoring games. If 4 runs is typical for a major league team…a squad is much more likely to score 12 runs than they are negative four. Eventually, this causes the averages to dramatically overstate expectations for a given game. This is probably the single greatest factor that causes the general public to bet on Overs…and to lose.

For teams who haven't played an odd number of games, there isn't a proper median. In those cases we just put the boundaries in parenthesis. Serves the same purpose.

NL EAST
FLORIDA: 4-2-3-4-5-3…average 3.5…median (3-4)
ATLANTA: 2-18-10-1-5-2-6…average 6.3…median 5
NEW YORK: 7-10-8-3-0-4-10…average 6.0…median 7
MONTREAL: 3-3-0-2-1-1…average 1.7…median (1-2)
PHILADELPHIA: 1-5-2-3-3-1-1…average 2.3…median 2
Comments: Montreal probably had the worst opening week in the history of baseball given the context. They got to play half of their games in a bandbox park in Puerto Rico, but still couldn't score any runs. The Phillies weren't quite as bad as Montreal…but horrible offensive production is clearly the reason they're in last place instead of first so far. And, you can't blame it on playing a bunch of road games, because the Phils could only score one run at home against the Reds and Wilson yesterday. The Mets and Braves love hitting each other's pitching. Neither team looked all that impressive against other teams…but the games against each other have looked like little league, including yesterday's 10-6 slugfest.

NL CENTRAL
CINCINNATI: 4-3-5-5-3-3-4…average 3.9…median 4
MILWAUKEE: 8-7-4-11-7-6-4-5…average 6.5…median (6-7)
ST. LOUIS: 6-5-9-5-13-10-6…average 9.0…median 6
CHICAGO: 7-1-3-2-2-10-2…average 3.9…median 2
HOUSTON: 4-5-10-13-1-7…average 6.7…median (5-7)
PITTSBURGH: 2-4-6-1-1-4-13…average 4.4…median 4
Comments: St. Louis has been the big story on offense so far this year. You know we love looking for teams who score at least five runs consistently. St. Louis managed that in every game the first week. Their pitching staff is so poor that they'll HAVE to do that to win ballgames. But, give credit where it's due. And, look at Overs until the line adjusts. Milwaukee was surprisingly productive, but their first four games were against St. Louis pitching. The jury is still out on that team. Cincy and Pittsburgh started poorly, while the Cubs were inconsistent to say the least. A median of 2 this deep into the season is very weak.

NL WEST
LOS ANGELES: 2-5-2-5-7-2…average 3.8…median (2-5)
SAN FRANCISCO: 5-7-1-3-4-6-7…4.7…median 5
SAN DIEGO: 8-4-1-4-6-3…average 4.3…median 4
ARIZONA: 2-9-6-6-2-5-4…average 4.9…median 5
COLORADO: 6-5-5-1-4-4-7…average 4.6…median 5
Comments: This is annually a division of extremes. The top three teams listed here play in pitchers parks (and the new San Diego park looks to be a pitchers park, just like the old one). The bottom two play in hitter's parks, with Colorado being the closest thing to the Moon on planet Earth. When evaluating these teams deeper into the season, be sure to focus on ROAD production to get a truest sense of their strengths and weaknesses.

AL EAST
BOSTON: 2-4-10-2-5-4-6…average 4.7…median 4
TAMPA BAY: 8-1-9-2-4-3-10…average 5.3…median 4
NEW YORK: 3-12-4-3-3-3-3-5…average 4.5…median 3
BALTIMORE: 7-1-3-3-3-11-1…average 4.1…median 3
TORONTO: 0-3-3-10-1-4…average 3.5…median 3
Comments: Check out those medians. Those are very small numbers for what's expected in this division…especially the 3 for the Yankees. They were a team that reached 5 runs regularly last year…and now they've added Gary Sheffield. Toronto's been a disaster, which is a shock considering their offense and the parks they've been playing in. Baltimore had expected more than this after bringing in Tejada, Palmeiro, and Lopez in the offseason. This is the DH league for goodness sake, and those are very poor offensive numbers.

AL CENTRAL
DETROIT: 7-7-6-10-5-6…average 6.8…median (6-7)
KANSAS CITY: 9-3-1-3-7-5…average 4.7…median (3-5)
CHICAGO: 7-4-1-9-7-4…average 5.3…median (4-7)
MINNESOTA: 7-7-4-6-10-6-3…average 6.1…median 6
CLEVELAND: 4-6-11-6-1-6-3-6…average 5.4…median 6
Comments: Detroit's got to be the shocker of all time. This was a team that had NO offensive to speak of last year. It was a bunch of minor league singles hitters…who weren't even very good at hitting singles. To top five runs every time out and average almost 7 is amazing. The last three games were played in cool weather in a pitcher's park too. Great opening, but one that they're extremely unlikely to maintain. The top three teams here have all played an even number of games, which messes up the median. You could pencil in 4's for KC and Chicago and not be too far off. Very surprising indeed that this division is outscoring the AL East so far….with Detroit and CWS going 5-2 against Toronto and the Yankees heads up on the road!

AL WEST
ANAHEIM: 10-10-5-4-6-7…average 7.0…median (6-7)
OAKLAND: 5-3-1-8-2-4…average 3.8…median (3-4)
TEXAS: 4-1-2-12-12-2…average 5.5…median (2-4)
SEATTLE: 5-7-1-6-1-9…average 4.8…median (5-6)
Comments: It's amazing to see what Vlad Guerrero's new team(Anaheim ) is doing compared to his old team (Montreal). Big numbers so far for the Angels, and the first three games were in Seattle's pitchers park, so that's not a fluke. Texas played its first three games in Oakland, but it's next four in Arlington. The differences there overstate the case…but you can expect the Rangers youngsters to be inconsistent away from home this year. The Mariners have scored more than their 1-5 start would have had you believe, suggesting that pitching is a serious problem so far.

Remember, an evaluation of each team's offense should be at least HALF of your daily handicapping process in baseball. Most do-it-yourselfers look only at the starting pitchers, assuming that the offenses kind of cancel each other out. That couldn't be further from the truth. If anything, relative parity in groups of starting pitchers cancel out, and the offenses are the difference makers. If two aces face each other…if two middle rotation guys face eache other…if two spot starters face each other, then the pitching cancels out. Don't leave offense out of the mix.

And, if you're playing Over/Unders…typical offensive production should be the heart of your analysis. Don't play Unders when good offenses are on the field just because you love the pitchers. Don't play Overs when bad offenses are on the field just because guys you've never heard of our the listed starters. When you've got a comprehensive understanding of what's happening between the white lines, cherrypicking the right plays each and every night is really very easy.

[jjdman]

cherrypicking the right plays each and every night is really very easy.

lol yep Kris there ain't nothin too it.
good luck my friend
JJD

[pucksters]

great stuff, I will put your info to use today

[slickwillie1]

good stuff kris, do you do any similar type work on bullpens?

[Mr. Baseball]

good stuff..you can never overlook the hitting...cappers focus so much on the pitchers but
when you have a team swinging hot bats....ie the Tigers in the first week...you can make
some serious with dogs plays

[Buck19]

Will you be updating this link with current stats or can you provide a referral to the website you are utilizing for this info?

thank you for sharing this insight.