thursday bases

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(53-23)(+24.35 units) favorite bets
(19-25)(+0.04 units) underdog bets

(72-48)(+24.39 units) overall


3-3 (-0.55 units) last night. All my plays were favorites. My only dog play was rained out. For those who follow my picks, you know it is rare that I add plays after posting for the day. With my original plays I went 3-1, and the added some games afterwards losing both. It just proves to me I should just stick with my original instincts. I had some extra time yesterday and did a little extra reading and talked myself into those extra plays. Won’t happen again. I just bet too many games yesterday and it cost me. Overall though losing just over a half unit is no big deal.

Over half the games today were day games, so I missed them. Not a ton too choose from for tonight, but here is what I came up with.



San Fran +164 vs Houston………..I must be nutz going against Oswalt at home, it is that simple. But, Oswalt is 2-4 with a 4.53 ERA in eight starts against San Francisco, which joins Oakland (0-1) and Atlanta (0-2) as the three teams he has a losing record against, so there is a chance. Rookie Tim Lincecum (1-0, 5.56 ERA) will make his third start for the Giants on Thursday. The 22-year-old Lincecum allowed two earned runs and seven hits while striking out six and walking one in seven innings of the Giants' 8-3 win at Colorado on Friday for his first major league victory. Lincecum is supposed to be great. He got hammered in his debut, but got a win even though not looking that great in his second start. He is supposed to have amazing stuff. I think tonight in his third start he will look good and get the win. The Astros have always been know to be a light hitting team anyway, so this is his chance to take control….or at least I hope.

Angels +111 vs Seattle…………..Like the first game above, I am just going by some pitching stats and little history. Colon (4-0, 3.66) is off to a pretty good start so far this year. The veteran pitcher is a dominant 7-1 with a 1.98 ERA in nine starts at Safeco Field, that is impressive. He is also in his last five outings vs the mariners 4-0 with a 1.85 era. It is hard to go against those number, especially as a dog. If that was not enough of individual stats, The Angels have won six of their last eight games overall and 12 of the last 15 meetings between these teams. Sure this game could lose, but I will take my chances as a dog tonight.

Florida -113 vs Pittsburgh………..I like this Pittsburgh team and I think they are close to have a decent ball club. There is something missing though, I don’t know what it is. Tony Armas sucks. He sucks this year and he is one loss away from seeing the minor leagues. Armas is 0-4 with an 8.57 ERA in his last five starts against the Marlins since a win on July 23, 2004, so it does not look good for him. The pirates are struggling on offense most of this year as well. The only reason their record is not worse than it is, is because they have a decent young pitching staff, and Armas is not one of those young arms. His mound opponent looks at little better. Ricky Nolasco (1-1, 6.06) gets the start for the Marlins, hoping to continue his success on the road, where he is 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA in two starts. Nolasco has yet to allow a run to the Pirates in two overall appearances. He limited them to four hits in 7 1-3 innings to earn the win in Florida's 5-0 victory on July 22. Like the above games, I have stats to back my plays tonight.


I would just like to mention that I am not a real big stat player. I do pay attention to them, but don’t always follow them. Tonight I am just following my gut and saying these numbers don’t lie. I have a crazy feeling that I am going either 3-0 or 0-3. Call me crazy, but it is just how I feel.


Good Luck Everybody!!