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Old 04-01-2007, 08:58 PM
Spraguer Spraguer is offline
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Default Spraguer MLB 2007
Sunday, April 1st
*All plays risking one unit

Mets +132
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Old 04-02-2007, 10:39 AM
Spraguer Spraguer is offline
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Yesterday: 1 - 0 +1.32
Season: 1 - 0 +1.32

Monday, April 2nd
*As always, all plays risking one unit

Brewers -112
Diamondbacks -113
Cleveland +108
Red Sox -156
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Old 04-02-2007, 01:45 PM
Spraguer Spraguer is offline
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Adding for today:

Devil Rays +166
Athletics +115
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Old 04-02-2007, 03:03 PM
Spraguer Spraguer is offline
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Adding for today:

Reds +119
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Old 04-02-2007, 03:15 PM
Bostongambler Bostongambler is online now
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GL This year Spraguer
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Old 04-02-2007, 07:47 PM
count zero count zero is offline
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Off to a good start. Good luck.
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Old 04-02-2007, 08:40 PM
ovrund ovrund is offline
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excellent start....GL
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Old 04-02-2007, 11:58 PM
Spraguer Spraguer is offline
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Thanks guys.

Yesterday: 4 - 3 +1.03
Season: 5 - 3 +2.35

Tuesday, April 3rd
*As always, all plays risking one unit

Padres +109
Nationals +124
Pirates +162
Twins -126
Athletics +110
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Old 04-03-2007, 05:16 PM
Spraguer Spraguer is offline
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Adding for today:

Mets +105
Diamondbacks +129
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Old 04-03-2007, 05:40 PM
Soonerfan64 Soonerfan64 is offline
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Spraguer,


If you have time, what is your reasoning behind the Nats pick.

I am on the marlins but someone just put up a large offering on Washington at Matchbook. Me thinking I may be on the wrong side, but the SF64BDI still indicates the Fish.

Thanks
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Old 04-03-2007, 06:48 PM
Spraguer Spraguer is offline
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Some small factors coming together:

1. Shawn Hill - while nothing special - is a bit better than his raw stats indicate. He has a strong groundball tendency (1.7 GB/FB ratio), which is compounded by the size of RFK (unlikely to give up many home runs).

2. Chris Snelling and Josh Wilson/Ronnie Belliard will be replacing the injured Nook Logan and Christian Guzman. These changes almost certainly improve the offense (and with the groundballing Hill on the mound, the defensive downgrade in the OF - Church to CF and Snelling in LF - shouldn't hurt too bad).

That's basically it. I'm putting a small investment in the idea that Shawn Hill is not as bad as most Nationals pitchers, and that the offense will improve with Snelling and Wilson or Belliard.

Also, though this factor isn't built into my handicapping model because it would be a nightmare to take proper account of on a daily basis, but I did notice that the Nationals did not use either of their two good relief pitchers yesterday (Rauch and Cordero), whereas three of the top Marlins relievers (Julio - the closer -, Owens and Messenger) all pitched yesterday.

Just some value in the Nats.
Last edited by Spraguer : 04-03-2007 at 08:06 PM.
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Old 04-03-2007, 06:50 PM
Soonerfan64 Soonerfan64 is offline
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As always thanks!
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Old 04-03-2007, 08:42 PM
Spraguer Spraguer is offline
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Hill's ground-ball tendency is on full display, but they are either finding holes or being botched by the infielders. That first inning was painful to watch.

Looks like you've got a winner, Sooner.
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Old 04-04-2007, 12:35 AM
Spraguer Spraguer is offline
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Yesterday: 4 - 1 +3.55 (2 plays pending)
Season: 9 - 4 +5.90

Wednesday, April 4th
*As always, all plays risking one unit

Nationals +132
Phillies -116
Cubs +120
Pirates +150
Padres +107
Blue Jays -102
Rangers +138
Royals +147
Twins -130
Athletics -109
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Old 04-04-2007, 04:02 PM
Spraguer Spraguer is offline
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Yesterday's Late Plays: 0 - 2 -2.00
Yesterday: 4 - 3 +1.55
Season: 9 - 6 +3.90

Adding for Today:

Diamondbacks +116
Mets -105
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Old 04-04-2007, 08:54 PM
Spraguer Spraguer is offline
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Adding for Today:

Brewers +114
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Old 04-05-2007, 12:34 AM
Spraguer Spraguer is offline
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Yesterday: 5 - 6 -0.26 (2 plays pending)
Season: 14 - 12 +3.64

Thursday, April 5th
*As always, all plays risking one unit

Phillies -105
Diamondbacks -115
Padres -114
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Old 04-05-2007, 08:40 AM
Spraguer Spraguer is offline
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Yesterday's Late Plays: 2 - 0 +1.99
Yesterday: 7 - 6 -0.26 +1.73
Season: 16 - 12 +5.63
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Old 04-05-2007, 11:36 PM
Spraguer Spraguer is offline
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Yesterday: 1 - 1 -0.13 (1 play pending)
Season: 15 - 13 +5.50

Friday, April 6th
*As always, all plays risking one unit

Marlins +100
Diamondbacks -105
Pirates +104
Mets +104
Cubs +108
Cleveland -136
Yankees -215
White Sox -120
Royals +154
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