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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 11-14-2006, 12:11 AM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 1,439
Default Capping The '07 Masters

Golf season's over. Kissed my sister all of '06, for a whopping loss of $3.38. No kidding, that's what I lost. Hit 1 outright, that's all, last tourney, Adam Scott @ 22-1 2x. I did pretty well on the m/u's, good enough to cover my outright losses.

Looking ahead to the Masters for no reason, other than, simply bored stiff.

Tiger Woods 2.00--- Even money, you got to be kidding. El Paso.
Mickelson 10.00---Lefty is not 5 times worse than Tiger, or is he? I think Phil is lost in the galaxy somewhere.
Els 17.00---I believe this guy has shot his wad.
Singh 21.00---Another wad shooter, but better than Els.
Furyk 21.00---Much better than Els and Singh, might be better than Mick too. A good bet at this price.
Adam Scott 23.00---I like this guy, but not at the Masters. I love him at 50-1 though.
Garcia 26.00---Completely unravels when playing in a tournament with Woods.
Goosen 26.00---Better than Sergio, but fades as the days roll by.
Luke Donald 29.00---No reason to say this, but passing on this golfer.
Darren Clarke 51.00---Still shook up, and I believe he will still be at Augusta.
Padraig 51.00---Nice guy, lost his form, and fun to listen to.
Geoff Olgilvy 51.00 This guy makes me go hmmmmm. Lights out or lights off. Hmmmm.
Weir 51.00---Has a new swing coach. Has half a swing now, should be all the way gone by the Masters.
Di Marco 51.00---I think this guy has lost his mind. Drugs, booze, meditation, something.
Olazabal 51.00---Jeez, forget it. How old is Ola anyway?
David Toms 51.00---Local, the best of the 51.00 crew. Maybe. Might get your money's worth of action.
Immelman 67.00---This is the guy. My pick. Too young to know he shouldn't win. Has great game and shoots at least 2 low, low rounds, and it might be enough to carry. He has a relaxed intensity that reminds me of Jack, and that's a good thing. Drives good, putts well. Has won before. The price is definately right.

I didn't cap the rest of the field, because, well, I already made my choice. These prices are up at SIA, so take it easy on them. Nickel or less I think, been a long time since I read the rules or limits. I'm going to start posting more here. One more season. I would love to see some or a lot of action here, or it's MJ's in '08.

GLTA, as usual. Tommy
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 04-03-2007, 03:45 PM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 1,439

Some things have changed, and some have stayed the same. I'm not as high on Immelman as I was last Nov., nevertheless, I backed him. I think this is a lost cause though. Here's the same group, new odds, and what I think of them now, 5 months later.

Woods +140 Everyone has already given him the jacket. I think it's hard to argue with that. You can argue this until the cows come home, but I believe that Tiger is the best golfer to ever trod the planet. I know for a fact, that Woods really fouls up the betting angle.

Mick +700 Reminds me of the scared little boy whistling in the dark. Grinning and joking with the gallery. He doesn't look, act, or talk like a pro golfer, but is a phenomenal player, just weird. I don't think I've ever bet on Phil, I know I have a reason there somewhere, I just can't tell you what it is right now.

Els +1300 He's better than he was 6 months ago, but a long way from his best form ever. Ernie has a tendancy to blow one or two holes, and that keeps him from winning here. In England, he's getting a lot of nods, the punters there think more of him than I do.

Singh +1500 Way better than he was a year ago, and wouldn't surprise me if he got his second jacket this year. I'd take him over Phil and Els, that's for sure. I don't hate this guy, like I said once before. I must have been on my period that day. Sorry Vijay, for saying that. Top 5 probably, top 10 for sure, you can bet on that.

Furyk +3300 Jim hasn't warmed up yet. I don't like the fact that his wrist is hurting. I don't think he will factor in this Masters. Later in the year, who knows. Furyk is a very talented player with a very unorthidox swing. I like his quiet, killer demenor.

Scott +3300 Winner last week. That has to count for something. If I could change places with anyone on tour, this is the guy. I know he is a chick magnet. He was happy to win last week, but he wasn't ecstatic. That tells me he was only there to tune up for this week. I'd say Scott is fully tuned up right now.

Garcia +2800 The most overrated golfer in the last 10 years. You gotta like him though, he's a great interview. He's won for me twice, once here, and once over there, 2 years ago, and I've only played him 3 or 4 times. Thanks for that.

Goosen +3300 Retief has fallen off my radar for various reasons. I can't back him here. He shines on certain courses, hard and dry types, Augusta is not one of those kinds.

Luke Donald +6600 "I'm melting, I'm melting" About says it.

Clarke +15000 Darren is in danger of falling into Duval's footsteps. Wife died, girlfriend trouble, good ink, bad ink in Britain. What the hell is going on here?

Harrington +5000 Stocks on the rise. This would not be a bad pick here. Playing better and better every week.

G. Olgilvy +3000 This guy is a winner. Won the US Open and more. The problem is, he surprises himself. When he starts to expect to win, he will really kick ass. Any day now.

Weir +10000 My ultimate fade guy this year. Made me a lot.

DiMarco +8000 I'd like to see him win this, he won't though. He's getting older and so is his game.

Olazabal +6600 I take Oly in M/U's a lot and he's been okay. Probably won more than lost. Take him for first round leader at great odds, he won't win this though.

Toms +10000 Lost his form. I think he's +30000 at betfair, that should tell you something.

Immelman +6000 His odds are lower than 6 months ago, and I like his chances less. If I could take it back I would. He is not playing badly, just not like the end of last year.

These odds are from the Greek, the early odds were from SIA.

Post my other plays later.
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 04-03-2007, 04:30 PM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 1,439

These guys I capped up to do well in the M/U's.

Tim Clark, Goose, Ames, Oberholser, Jimenez

These guys I'm looking to fade.

Monty, Taylor, Toms, DiMarco, Glover, Calc, Howell3

Ober over Appleby +110 Arron has notched up his play this year. About time too!
Olgilvy over Howell3 -115 Total mismatch here.
Jimenez over Bjorn -110 Not exactly a stab, but close.
Ames over Cabrera +105 I don't know why Ames is the dog here.
Harrington over DiMarco -108 Here it is folks. Free money. WSX

I'm going to have a second outright pick here real soon.
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 04-03-2007, 04:41 PM
St Paddy St Paddy is offline
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,423

I like Luke Donald at 67-1.
Money won is twice as sweet as money earned
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 04-04-2007, 12:02 AM
oakas oakas is offline
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 269

WOW Tommyjay. Great write-ups.

I really like your Harrington over DiMarco play.

Also, I don't know if your books have any Michael Campbell match-ups, but I feel that he is a great fade this week.

Good luck on your plays.
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 04-04-2007, 12:49 AM
Bitter Bruin Bitter Bruin is offline
Two Star General
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 5,865

Nice effort TJ!

No kidding on Scott - I followed him for awhile at the LA Open this year - the quality of tail following him was very high - and he was looking!
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 04-05-2007, 12:53 AM
boomer1 boomer1 is offline
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 148

one prop i like is yes on a hole in one +1.40...some goof ball on friday or saturday will 2 hop one in before we even wake i hit this bet last
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 04-07-2007, 10:26 AM
topspinner topspinner is offline
Join Date: Sep 2000
Posts: 668

Tommy- nice calls....oly has low round to be exactly 68 at +165.....with the weather and the way the course is playing, that seems like a good bet, what do you think? By the way this is for the whole tourney
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  #9 (permalink)  
Old 04-08-2007, 09:50 PM
Bostongambler Bostongambler is offline
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Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 36,392

15 minutes of fame.
Let hatred turn into friendship because of your existence.
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