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Old 04-04-2006, 08:03 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Cmon guys lets post some thoughts and predictions. Will post mine shortly
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Old 04-04-2006, 08:22 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Okay here goes. Ready for some public embarrassment.

Here are my random thoughts. They really have lengthened the course. I like the one quote I saw. "They haven't Tiger proofed it they have Fred Funk proofed it". I am pretty much going along with that thinking in some of my predictions. You really need to be a big hitter to compete.

First some negative opinions. Dont think DiMarco- a guy I really admire and like has much of a chance. Dont like the whole injury factor and he didnt play that great before he got hurt either. Think he is the sentimental play but leaving him out.

Dont like Tiger either. He has clearly taken his already great game to another level but I still see some flaws-especially off the tee. What impresses me more than anything about him is his heart. His scrambling ability is incredible. He hands in there better than anyone in history when he doesnt have his "A" game. So mentally tough. But I have to go against him here based on the juicy prices of some guys I like.

VJ is a mystery to me. The collapse at the TPC was stunning to me. Something has seriously gone amiss with his game. Cant take him.

Dont like Ernie either. Showing signs and come the British Open I will be interested but not now.

Have mixed feelings about Phil and Sergio. Phil will be in contention but just have a feeling he will come up short at crunch time. Think he bounces off last week. Sergio is striking the ball well, but is a mess on the greens. Painful to watch him putt. Very painful. Has awful form. Really needs to go to Ben Crenshaw or someone and getting a putting overhaul. Think he will be in contention but will be undone by putting.

Who do I like? My top two plays are the joined at the hip Australians- Appeleby and Allenby- especially the latter. Both are big hitters and have serious game. However for the most part they have really underachieved in the majors. But I think their odds are just too tempting considering their skill and length. Counting on a breakthrough for one.

I think Chad Campbell is a good fit also. Very streaky player who is not intimidated and will definitely win some majors before he is through.

Charles Howell- another underachiever is getting play from me. Has the local knowledge and usually plays fairly well here.

There are two guys I am looking at for real bomber plays. Bart Bryant has the game for Augusta. Hits long and straight and can definitely get it in the hole. Showed me a lot when he won last year (twice). Hasnt played well this year but worth a shot.

Thomas Bjorn is another worth a look. Really impressed me at the PGA. Think he has conquered his demons. Has the talent to hang in.
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Old 04-05-2006, 12:14 AM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
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I have a new capping system starting this year. Works great in the match-ups, not so great for outrights, as I haven't hit one yet. The biggest weight goes towards how a particular guy plays at a specific course. The nicest thing about this way of capping, is that it gives many plays at plus odds.

As an example, last week I capped these guys to do poorly---Rory, Perry, Jimenez, Sutherland, and Browne, all 5 missed the cut. I capped these players to do well---Atwal, Ola, Jobe, Beem, Ober, and Mayfair. Two missed the cut, but still won on one of them, Jobe over Rose. So far, the pros to do poorly have been much more effective than the capped up good guys.

ANYHOW

This weeks study revealed---

To do good
Di Marco, Weir, Pamp, and Immelman.
I took Di Marco WSX at 49-1, Pamp and Immel are in the stratosphere, 150 and 201 to 1.

To do badly
Love, Toms, Garcia, Harrington, Sabb, Ola, and Daly.
There are some juicy fat odds going against these guys.

I have already got down for my tourn. m/u's. Post them tomorrow. Here's a tease now though, Zach over Ola +161. They both played great last week, but Ola just can't play Augusta anymore. Cut last year too.

GLTA
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Old 04-05-2006, 12:29 AM
BuzzRavanaugh BuzzRavanaugh is offline
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I have some mixed emotions about this event. I think there are two things that I am keeping in mind as I handicap this event.

1. I think Tiger can play his C game and win this event. I think his B game and he wins by 4 shots, his a game he wins this by 4 shots a day or 16 shots. Nothing can stop Tiger but start looking at his recent form. Something has happened---his father is extremely ill---in fact I heard that the tour rumor is that his Dad needed to rally or else Tiger was not going to play in this event. If Tiger's head and heart elsewhere is the only way he could lose this event.

I play cautiosly against him to win. Knowing more than likely I will be tearing the tickets over the trash can come Sunday. I think its worth a gamble to play against him.

2. The Masters is a very interesting handicapping tourney. It seems to always to go to the "NOW" player. Seems even Crenshaw won the event after burying Harvey Penick, Mike Weir had a huge start to his season in winning the Masters, Vijay Singh was the top player heading into the Masters he won, and even Mickelson won a couple of times and had a serious attitude coming into the event.

I want to try to identify the NOW players:

1. Tiger---who has played better to start the year--didn't think anybody else was going to win to start the year.

2. DiMarco---gutsy performance last year in this event and in the Ryder Cup---he is is a great story and maybe this is a week to play good and capitalize. This is stupid but he is a huge Florida Gator fan maybe that energizes him and maybe that is the necessary story line come Sunday. At 66/1 I am taking the risk.

3. Chad Campbell---great start to the year playing great--has the length to do damage on this course. Don't know if he can handle the greens but at the posted price I am in.

4. Geoff Ogilvy---tremendously talented player breaks through at the WGC--also had a great start to the year. Wouldn't be shocked and at that price wow??

Mickelson and Goosen---I have mixed emotions. May look to place against them

Els---what is the deal with Ernie-gets in contention than can't close. Amazing.

Garcia--loves the golf course--best player to not win yada yada---I am thinking of playing against ---might be some value in playing Mickelson against Garcia, or Goosen against Garcia. Won't bet the mortgage on those types of play but maybe for a little action bet.

I will post some more when I get a chance later and finalize this stuff.

Lets make some money.
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Buzz, I dont go to games. I buy all the Directv packages and watch them from the comfort of my own home! I dont like listening to all the fans nonsense at games! I pay for blonde women to come over and have sex with my hispanic hottie maid, and sometimes I get involved to make it a threesome! I like to lay in my pool during the day sipping on drinks that have umbrellas!

Luke M
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Old 04-05-2006, 03:03 AM
GUforum GUforum is offline
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Matchups
--------------------

Leonard Ov. Jiminez -110 (1) @ Pinnacle
Furyk Ov. Goosen +150 (1.5) @ Pinnacle
Ames Ov. Olabazal +180 (2) @ Pinnacle
Singh Ov. Woods +185 (2) @ Pinnacle
Marayuma Ov. Lehman +185 (2) @ Pinnacle
Singh Ov. Mickelson +138 (1.5) @ Pinnacle

Verplank Ov. Bjorn -135 (1.5) @ Olympic
Herron Ov. Immelman +120 (1) @ Olympic
Clarke Ov. Weir +100 (1) @ Sportsbook

To Make/Miss the Cut

Jiminez to MISS the cut +175 (2) @ Pinnacle (Currently +110)
Verplank To MAKE the cut -185 (1) @ Pinnacle (Currently -195)

Props

Furyk Un. 16th Finishing position (ties included) -110 @ Pinnacle



More to come....
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Old 04-05-2006, 03:09 AM
Buck Swope Buck Swope is offline
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Vijay 16-1 (Wsex)

D. Toms to win w/o Big5 20-1 (bet365)

Top 5 each 25-1 (5dimes):
Sabbatini
Glover
Obberholser
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Old 04-05-2006, 03:12 AM
Buck Swope Buck Swope is offline
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<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>
To do badly

Love, Toms, Garcia, Harrington, Sabb, Ola, and Daly.

</end quote></div>

I am a huge JMO fan but I think this is the week to hop off the bandwagon. His imagination around the green is incredible but he just does not have the length to compete here. In an interview last week he conceded that he would have to putt absolutely lights out to have a chance to win because of his limited distance off the tee

small margin of error
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Old 04-05-2006, 03:32 AM
Buck Swope Buck Swope is offline
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added:

Appleby -110 o. Monty
Olaz -170 o. Zach Johnson (ironic I lay this juice after my Olaz rant above but I think Johnson is junk)
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Old 04-05-2006, 04:01 AM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
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Betting against Tiger is a known risk. But then that's why the odds are higher for everyone else. Mick? nah, I don't think so, he has his one Masters already. Goosen? maybe, but only if the course is playing extremely tough. Els? no, he's not all the way back yet. Singh? no way, he's feeling his age, and last year was his swan song. Di Marco? I took him, even if he's a percieved choker. My biggest knock on Chris is he's too hard on himself. He doesn't know how to have fun with the game. This one tournament is the one to be that way.

Weir over Love -108 Love is done. It looks like the oddsmakers know it also. Weir is either hot or cold, Love is just cold.

Donald over Garcia -107 Does anyone besides me believe that Sergio is a dog to this guy? Donald hot, Garcia takes too many risks when Tiger is in the field, misses cut again.

Zach over Olajabal +161 Zach against Singh wouldn't be that high of odds. Must be an oddsmakers error.

Pamp over Verplank +111 I hate playing against Verplank, he's so steady, he'll be about 20th, but if Rod plays anything like he did last year, he wins.

Ames over Ola +130 Would someone tell me why I bet this? I remember now. Ola is playing out of his mind this year. Actually it just capped out that way. Ola gets cut too.

Olajabal less than 16th +121

Garcia less than 14th -124

Big fun bet---Donald over Harrington, Garcia, Ola, Furyk. +350.

3 first rounders
Petterssen over Daly -122
Di marco over Garcia +118
Scott over Love -110

Mostly at Pinny, few at Golfing Gods.

Love ya' all. Let's get the man this week.
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Old 04-05-2006, 01:13 PM
seaurchin seaurchin is offline
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found this site

some good info

http://www.golfobserver.com/



taking appleby -06 over t clark
weir -05 over love
pamp +10 over verplank


took a chance on stenson +625 in the group
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Old 04-05-2006, 03:12 PM
GUforum GUforum is offline
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Adding: Appleby Ov. Montgomerie -112 (1) @WSEX
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Old 04-05-2006, 09:36 PM
BuzzRavanaugh BuzzRavanaugh is offline
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I am taking:

Chad Campbell each way

Geoff Ogilvy each way

Rory Sabbatini each way
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Buzz, I dont go to games. I buy all the Directv packages and watch them from the comfort of my own home! I dont like listening to all the fans nonsense at games! I pay for blonde women to come over and have sex with my hispanic hottie maid, and sometimes I get involved to make it a threesome! I like to lay in my pool during the day sipping on drinks that have umbrellas!

Luke M
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Old 04-05-2006, 10:18 PM
tony27 tony27 is offline
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i'm suprised at the odds of luke donald. solid player to win it all.
[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]
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Old 04-05-2006, 10:52 PM
BuzzRavanaugh BuzzRavanaugh is offline
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I like Donald---I might have to play him. Really don't see him winning though.
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Buzz, I dont go to games. I buy all the Directv packages and watch them from the comfort of my own home! I dont like listening to all the fans nonsense at games! I pay for blonde women to come over and have sex with my hispanic hottie maid, and sometimes I get involved to make it a threesome! I like to lay in my pool during the day sipping on drinks that have umbrellas!

Luke M
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Old 04-07-2006, 01:14 AM
BuzzRavanaugh BuzzRavanaugh is offline
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Round 2 Match Ups:

Sergio Garcia -117 vs. Tom Lehman---Really like the way Sergio is playing right now seemed cheap to me.

Vijay Singh +147 vs. Tiger Woods---This just didn't make much sense to me.
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Buzz, I dont go to games. I buy all the Directv packages and watch them from the comfort of my own home! I dont like listening to all the fans nonsense at games! I pay for blonde women to come over and have sex with my hispanic hottie maid, and sometimes I get involved to make it a threesome! I like to lay in my pool during the day sipping on drinks that have umbrellas!

Luke M
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Old 04-07-2006, 10:23 AM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Man this course is a bear. Look at Rocco Mediate. What a character. He has played well a few times now on hard courses in majors- the two US Opens. I like the guy and his attitude but not sure he can hang in. Feel okay with some of my outrights. Long way to go yet and not convinced the "real" VJ is back.

Goosen is someone to watch real close. Going to play some interactives on him. He loves these fast greens
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Old 04-07-2006, 10:28 AM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Buying some Geoff Oglivy too
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Old 04-08-2006, 01:40 AM
BuzzRavanaugh BuzzRavanaugh is offline
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RD 3---I will take Vijay against Mickelson +some money.
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Buzz, I dont go to games. I buy all the Directv packages and watch them from the comfort of my own home! I dont like listening to all the fans nonsense at games! I pay for blonde women to come over and have sex with my hispanic hottie maid, and sometimes I get involved to make it a threesome! I like to lay in my pool during the day sipping on drinks that have umbrellas!

Luke M
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Old 04-08-2006, 02:11 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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I tell you one other guy I expect to see hang around for a long while. Rocco. He is another guy who wont let the pressure get to him. I love this guy's attitude. He is so loose when he plays. Always yapping. He has played well on tough courses in majors- see last years Open. Really has the short stick going. If this guy didnt have the bad back he would have had many more wins.
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