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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2005, 03:50 PM
buckeye buckeye is offline
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J.P Hayes 70-1 e/w T5
Also eyeing/liking Stanley's Herron and Quigley picks as this tourney is a much better SPOT to find futures with value in than most, IMO.
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Old 07-19-2005, 11:56 PM
mr_heem mr_heem is offline
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Quigley? Seriously? That's a surprise. Stanley works hard, and generally does a really fine job but Quigley at anything under 40-1 this week is seriously negative value, I think. (Herron's a sharp pick, on the other hand.)

Only Faxon and Jerry Kelly rate to be more overbet this week.

Agree w/Buckeye: the GMO is always a seriously bettable tournament.




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Old 07-20-2005, 02:10 AM
buckeye buckeye is offline
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Not sure why you don't like Quigley M_H, he's had a 5th recently at Western and his worst outing in the last 4 is 26th so he is playing good to decent. Add to that his very impressive 4th and 2nd here the last two years and that is a solid pick at 33-1 IMO.

I skipped on Herron as I think the travel back from Scotland may well slow him down too much and his recent form is a tad low to justify the lower odds.

GL2ALL
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Old 07-20-2005, 02:26 AM
mr_heem mr_heem is offline
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I like Quigley a fair amount here: there's nothing not TO like... except the price. My point was that Stanley usually does a good job on the hard - and meaningful - part of golf 'capping: relating projected performance to a probability of winning.

Still think he missed the boat on this one. But a Quigley win wouldn't qualify as a huge surprise. Positive +EV on a guy w/a 2nd, a 4th at the course last two years, and a whole slew of high finishes recently... now that'd be a surprise.

Good luck this week -

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Old 07-20-2005, 11:22 PM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
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Not much going on for me this week. I capped this on Monday and came up with this group. Perry, Funk, Verplank, and Browne. I ended up betting Funk, as I felt he had the best chance to value ratio.

The course is a typical midwest job, cut down to par 70. Only 3 par 5's all of which are easy and reachable. A tree lined up and back layout, fairly flat, with average greens. 15 under or better wins this one, 63's and 64's are pretty common. The back nine is a little tougher than the front. Skill and luck with the putter will be the determining factor here, and approach shots will come in second.

Perry 8-1 GGods, The favorite, very hot right now, tired from the Open
Verplank 19-1 GGods, very steady, knows how to win
Funk 32-1 WSEX, This is my play for the week, if he's in it after 3 rounds, he's a bulldog
Browne 126-1 GGods, He plays this track a lot better than the odds indicate

Funk over Kelly -111 Not much from Kelly this year, Fred is better right now
Funk over Campbell -102 Count on Campbell to sky 1 round
Verplank over Kelly -135

GLTA
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Old 07-21-2005, 01:08 AM
valueman valueman is offline
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I don't like betting these easy courses. Brings too many of the field into play. I 'll wait for a tougher course or for course with specifics that favour certain players.

Week off for me.
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Old 07-23-2005, 03:33 PM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
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Can't get very excited about this tourney. My guy is midpack and I think he'll stay there. 1-2 so far in the m/u's, I need Campbell to fold. The course is playing really easy, -20 might be the magic number.
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