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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 07-18-2005, 03:31 PM
valueman valueman is offline
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Default World ranking System is bizarre

Colin Montgomerie is AHEAD of Miguel Angel Jimenez following his 2nd in the British Open. He has 7 wins to count towards those rankings and 12 other top 10's whilst Montgomerie has 2wins and 11 other top 10's.

Other wierd ones are DiMarco at 11 - hasn't won since 2002, Cabrera at 13????, Tim Clark at 17, Nick o"hern at 24 (can't remember the last time he won), Verplank at 25 - the list goes on.

Its about time they were scrapped and some proper mathematicians and golf afficianados got together and worked something out properly. After all every week people talk about the world rankings and what's the point if the system is fundamentally flawed.
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Old 07-19-2005, 02:54 AM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
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Default RE:World ranking System is bizarre

Going back 2 years for the rankings is going back too far. Golf is a now sport, how are we doing now. NCAA football changes it's ranking every week. That's too often for golf, but 4 or 6 months seem fair to me. I know when I cap every week, I don't consider, or at least very little consider, past performance of 2 or more years ago.

Rankings for the last 6 months

Tiger Woods
Jim Furyk
Sergio Garcia
David Toms
Justin Leonard

Honorable mention to Jason Gore

You can forget the other big 3 misfires.
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Old 07-20-2005, 12:04 AM
mr_heem mr_heem is offline
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Default RE:World ranking System is bizarre

Good points, Tommy.

I'd add a couple more:

- Any system that puts a lot of emphasis on victories alone is goofy, to my mind.
If a guy beats the field by five shots, well... that's noteworthy. But a guy that wins by a shot over three other guys played only a quarter-shot a round better than they did: awarding twice as many points for a win as a second, or whatever, is how golf rating systems start to go wrong.

- Recency matters, but the key bit is to use some sort of a weighted moving average, so that tournament results just sort of tail away into nothing-ness at around the two or three-year mark.
If you're projecting player performance looking back only a few months, you're pretty much dead. So I can't see a rating system without a relatively long lookback having much statistical validity.

It's embarrassing that golf has such a bad ratings system, but the PGA has been so statistically retarded for so long that it's hard to see things getting much better.



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Old 07-20-2005, 12:26 AM
valueman valueman is offline
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Default RE:World ranking System is bizarre

My problem with the Ranking System is that the European tour is weighted too heavily. Wins in tournaments should always be graded much higher than places. The consistent placers who don't have the nerve to win a tournament have no right to gain a high world ranking. I agree with the strength of field set up but this needs to be adjusted. There needs to be a moving average to the worth of points over time ie points gained in a tounament decay gradually but slowly over a period of time. The system should not just be based on average finishing position as oppose to total points - a compromise needs to worked between the two. It was a crazy phenomenon when the whole world knew VJ was the #1 player but the rankings still had Tiger ahead.
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Old 07-20-2005, 01:38 AM
mr_heem mr_heem is offline
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Default RE:World ranking System is bizarre

One of the problem with designing a rating system is that things that seem blindingly obvious to one person - or to a whole bunch of people- may have no basis in reality.

Statements like "The consistent placers who don't have the nerve to win a tournament" or "The whole world knew Vijay was better than Tiger" are subjective opinions, not meaningful comments on the validity of any rating system.

I mean, go ahead and bet things that way as hard as you want, and best of luck - but understand that you may not come away with all the money... or even much of it.

Along which lines, congratulations on the big Kenny Perry score. Would it be unsporting of me to note that he was long saddled with a reputation as a "consistent placer" lacking in nerve?

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Old 07-20-2005, 03:46 AM
valueman valueman is offline
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Default RE:World ranking System is bizarre

mr_heem - I only back proven winners and will never try catch an in from player or rookie for his first win or first win in a long time (last two seasons is my threshold) hence my winners this season:

Perry, Bryant, Garcia & Woods.

I believe once a player has proven he can win he has the winning "memory" of how to do it again for up to two years. This does not mean they can't win but I have found it is a losing policy to chase these people.
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Old 07-23-2005, 05:19 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE:World ranking System is bizarre

DiMarco has two second place finishes (both in playoffs) in two of the last four though majors.

That is worth more to me than a win in any non major. By far.

Agree that the World Rankings are a joke
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Old 07-23-2005, 05:28 PM
valueman valueman is offline
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Default RE:World ranking System is bizarre

Alysheeba - agree with you that Di Marco has played well in majors recently but when did he last win a tournament - 2002 Phoenix Open. Given such a poor winning record, he surely shouldn't be so high in the rankings. Surely the world rankings should represent the winners in the world of golf not the players who always find one or two good however strong or weak the field is?

In a horse racing analogy he is an ungenuine animal! For those of you who know of Timeform (UK's horse racing bible) - he would have the double squiggle.
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Old 07-23-2005, 09:02 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE:World ranking System is bizarre

Valueman, I think he may be a few places too high but not more than that. And I think your horse racing analogy is a good one. A very good one. He is like a horse who runs real well in the grade one races. Some strong seconds. That to me is more impressive than the grade three animal who win "easily".

The guys in the top ten put it all together, wins and strong finishes in the majors.

I think there should be a strong bias towards playing well in the majors. There are not many players on any tour who can claim two top two finishes in less than a year. Heck, many dont do that in their lifetime. His second place finish in the match play is also keeping him up there.

That to me is why a Sergio is so impressive. His total win total the past few years is not overly impressive, but he has played real well in the majors, particularly this year. Thats why he deserves his high ranking.

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Old 07-24-2005, 05:08 PM
valueman valueman is offline
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Default RE:World ranking System is bizarre

Sergio is impressive but he's one of those players that even though he places ofter he'll find 1 or 2 wins every year thus deserving his high ranking.

Put it this way if DiMarco and Daly or Jimenez all level with 18 holes to play who would your money be on to win the tournament - Mine certainly would be on Daly and Jimenez (all much lower ranked) over DiMarco who you know would find a way to lose.
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Old 07-25-2005, 05:41 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE: World ranking System is bizarre

valueman, you seem to be implying DiMarco is a choker.

Would you agree that his three biggest events of his life were the last Ryder Cup, the last PGA and the last Masters?

He played very well in the Ryder Cup, the best American player.

In the PGA last year he played real well in the 4th round. Leaving that putt short on 18 was bad, but all in all he played real well that day. In the playoff VJ was awesome.

In the Masters last year he had a real bad third round. But outplayed Tiger in the fourth.

So I think your comments are unfair.

Yes, I would definitely take DiMarco over Daly and Jiminez, and I love Daly (who cant putt all of a sudden). I think Jiminez is underrated but where are his second place major finishes?
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Old 07-25-2005, 07:44 PM
mr_heem mr_heem is offline
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Default RE:World ranking System is bizarre


I'm sorry, but I just don't get this equating of tournament winner with "non-choker" and second place (or whatever) with "choker".

Consider this hypothetical: you've got an emotionless golfing robot -- an Iron Byron type -- who plays the same (PGA-caliber) course over and over again. How much will his score vary, round to round? Because it WILL vary: putts lip out, iron shots bounce harder than expected... the exact same drive winds up in the rough sometimes and not others.

The way I read Valueman's stuff, anytime the robot does distinctly better than average, h'd be calling him a real competitor; and anytime he was a few shots high, he'd be a choking dog.

On the whole, this whole "choker/competitor" issue reminds me a lot of the "clutch hitting " debate in baseball: one of those things where the obvious conclusion is almost impossible to support once you've looked at the data.
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Old 07-25-2005, 08:40 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE:World ranking System is bizarre

Quote:
Originally posted by: mr_heem
I'm sorry, but I just don't get this equating of tournament winner with "non-choker" and second place (or whatever) with "choker".

Consider this hypothetical: you've got an emotionless golfing robot -- an Iron Byron type -- who plays the same (PGA-caliber) course over and over again. How much will his score vary, round to round? Because it WILL vary: putts lip out, iron shots bounce harder than expected... the exact same drive winds up in the rough sometimes and not others.

The way I read Valueman's stuff, anytime the robot does distinctly better than average, h'd be calling him a real competitor; and anytime he was a few shots high, he'd be a choking dog.

On the whole, this whole "choker/competitor" issue reminds me a lot of the "clutch hitting " debate in baseball: one of those things where the obvious conclusion is almost impossible to support once you've looked at the data.
Agree with much of your post, especially the "clutch hitting" stuff. Have had endless arguments about that in baseball and never get anyone to change their mind. Take Reggie Jackson "Mr October". His career post season stats are very closely in line with his career regular season stats. In otherwards he performed as expected. And if you look only at this championship series stats (not World Series) he underperformed, and dramatically so. But there is no way to convince the "Mr October" fans that he was anything but a "clutch" player. Same deal with Derek Jeter. His post season stats in most of the big categories are the same or worse in the post season. But impossible to get through to his fans on it. Impossible.

In golf a guy can shoot a 68 in the final round and lose because his competitor shot 67, while the guy who shoots 71 can win when his opponent shoots worse. And the "winner" gets considered to be the "clutch" player
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Old 07-26-2005, 12:17 AM
valueman valueman is offline
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Default RE:World ranking System is bizarre

DiMarco is a choker. No one of his ability can manage NOT to win in 3 years.

All the guys can play on tour but when it comes to winning it takes that little bit extra that seperates the winners from the placers. DiMarco has shown that he can play well in closing rounds but there comes a point where you cannot forgive him all the occasions where he is close - it becomes too much of a coincidence. The Ryder Cup is the worst example anyone can choose. Chokers galore play their best golf there like Monty and Westwood when they have the support of a team with winners like Garcia in the team.

The International was the seal on the deal for me last year - almost inconcievable DiMarco could lose that tournament from where he was but he managed to do enough to blow the tourny.

Keep backing players like DiMarco is the quick way to the poor house.
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Old 07-26-2005, 02:48 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE: World ranking System is bizarre

What winners did DiMarco have to support him on the Ryder Cup team? Are you denying there is pressure in that event. If he played well in that event, under pressure, what does that say?

If you are saying DiMarco choked in this years Masters and PGA you were watching different tourneys than me.

As far as "backing players like DiMarco is the quick way to the poor house" the discussion (I thought) was about the ranking system and how he was ranked so high. Not betting. You seem to be suggesting I am advising people to mortgage the house and go out and bet him.

No one can convince me DiMarco choked in the 4th round of the Masters or last years PGA. Do I think he could, and probably should have won a few more times than he has, probably. But doesnt mean I think he is an inherent choker. Because it would have showed up in the 4th round of the Masters and last years PGA
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Old 07-26-2005, 02:52 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE: World ranking System is bizarre

Should also be noted DiMarco made the finals of the Match Play tourney this year. He is a very good match player.

As far as Monty, I am far from a Monty fan. Dont like his personality at all. But no way anyone can say he choked in the Open this year. That is anyone with any sense of fairness. I am not talking about past events or making sweeping general statements about his career. Talking specifically about this years Open. He got beat. He didnt choke. But I understand its easier to just stick a label on someone than to look at things on an event by event basis.

Choking is a very unfair word most of the time. If talking about sports, you can break down discussions about "clutch" players by looking at how they perform in the post season (if you have a big enough sample size). Do they perform worse or better? With golf I look at the Majors. Does a player play better or worse in the Majors than in other events? A guy who wins a bunch of minor events and never posts a top finish in a major is a more likely candidate for the ugly choking label, than a guy who doesnt win that much overall (like a Magger or DiMarco) but is competitive in the Majors.

Going back to the World ranking system, one of the things I like is the strength of field thing. Finishing second in a major is more impressive than winning a lesser tourney that is taking place the same week as a major. Or a tourney that follows a major with all the big names out. There should be a bias in performance of the majors. That is why DiMarco has a high ranking.
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Old 07-26-2005, 06:11 PM
valueman valueman is offline
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Default RE:World ranking System is bizarre

I don't like the name "choker" myself but in my mind it does not just apply to the player who blows up under pressure but also includes the player who'll do just enough not to win into which category DiMarco falls in to. You have conveniently completely ignored his performance in the last two rounds of the International last year when he managed to post -7 points in the last two rounds after scoring 31 in first 2 rounds. He was a major odds on favorite to win at half way and despite every one else playing poorly (winning score is normally mid 40's) he managed to do even worse.

His good finishes in majors and ryder cup performance mean nothing to as far as choking is concerned. He is not able to win when push comes to shove. Whether he plays well in finishing a close 2nd or blows up when he has it in the bag (the International), he to me has shown both aspects of choking which result in the same profile - a player that doesn't win.

As for World rankings the strength of field adjustments are good but should be lessened for places as should places in general tournaments.

Put it this way if a horse hadn't won in it last 70 odd starts in 3 years no matter what grade it ran in would it have any claim to be the 11th best horse in the World? No it would be called a dodge that should be dogfood.
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Old 07-26-2005, 07:32 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE: World ranking System is bizarre

He finished bad in the International. What can I say. Do I use that one tourney as evidence to label someone a choking dog? When I have seen them hold up under far more pressure three times in recent memory?

Justin Leonard almost blew an even bigger lead this year, and Sergio did blow a bigger one. Does that follow that I think those two are chokers too?

You also seem to be suggesting he somehow choked in the Masters this year and PGA last year. Which is grossly unfair. Grossly.

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Old 07-27-2005, 01:04 AM
valueman valueman is offline
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Default RE:World ranking System is bizarre

Alysheeba - I asked myself if I am being unfair to DiMarco so I asked one of my golf gurus who compiles odds for some of the major books in the UK his honest opinion of Chris DiMarco.

I quote" Biggest Choker on tour".

Not conclusive but a very educated opinion and that's all we have for sure.
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