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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 06-12-2005, 10:09 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default US Open

No, no picks yet. Although am sure I will have Luke Donald as one of them.

My initial thoughts on this are the "big five" are all suspect, and plays against.

Tiger- give him no chance at all. Still cant hit it straight.
VJ- Game has gone south lately. Not sure what is up.
Ernie- Something is wrong with his game. Of the five give him the best chance, but really hard to have too much confidence in him. has bad case of the pulls he cant shake.
Phil- Another hard to have confidence in. So up and down. Making tons of mistakes. The old Phil is resurfacing
Goosen- No idea what to make of him. Hard to know where is head is at when going well. No reason to think he will be able to turn it back on this week.


Those five should take a bunch of money so will definitely be looking to spread. David Toms is another guy I will be looking at as far as a play. Sergio right back isnt crazy either. Will wait until Tuesday before coming out with any formal picks.
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Old 06-13-2005, 12:24 AM
valueman valueman is offline
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Default RE:US Open

I'm away for 2 weeks so I'll try and get my picks in early but these may not necessarilly be the ones I do. I try to get as much info about the course before making my picks.
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Old 06-14-2005, 01:43 AM
BuzzRavanaugh BuzzRavanaugh is offline
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Default RE:US Open

I am hearing mixed things about the course. One guy told me the course is not in good shape, he played it a month ago-- I don't believe him. Ross designs puts premium on shot making and a short game.

I think you probably see a Woods, Mickelson final pairing on Sunday. I think Woods is right there- Mickelson has to play better than his recent form.

Playing against Garcia- he is just not very good, played great on Sunday but I don't see it at Pinehurst- his in game isn't very good.

Singh might be a litttle off form- never thought this style of golf suits him-- but he is just so solid at times he is tough- probably taking a stand against him.

Els-- Anybody else think he has a good tourney in him. It looked like he was ready at Congressional, got into the competition-swinging great- might be pick outright.

Goosen- If he putts like he did last year he could win again- so I am not banking on him- top 20ish type finish.

Jim Furyk- This is interesting--playing better and better- New Era champion so can do it on these type of golf courses- just question if his stroke will hang on these type of greens.

David Toms- Tough as nails competitor- I think he might be able to play well here.

Darren Clarke- Could hit the board- his iron game could really fit here nice- I think top 5 finish not out of the realm of possibility.

Lee Westwood- No

MA Jiminez- The guy is a great player and played super in his last Euro tour event on Sunday. However he just doesn't play well here unless it is a team event.

Justin Leonard- No. Great putter and short game and he is hitting it better and farther. You know he could fit on this course but I don't see it.

__________________
Buzz, I dont go to games. I buy all the Directv packages and watch them from the comfort of my own home! I dont like listening to all the fans nonsense at games! I pay for blonde women to come over and have sex with my hispanic hottie maid, and sometimes I get involved to make it a threesome! I like to lay in my pool during the day sipping on drinks that have umbrellas!

Luke M
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Old 06-14-2005, 02:41 AM
buckeye buckeye is offline
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Default RE:US Open

I'd heard Clarke isn't playing because of his wife's chemo. Even if he does he may be shaky from the ordeal himself.

Toms T10 +270
Leonard-110ovCink
Low score un 65.5 +130
Maggert makes cut -165
Toms 1st rd un 73 +105

Toms seems primed and has the Open game. Leonard finished 15th in '99 here and Cink is still struggling comparatively. I'd be surprised if someone doesn't shoot -5 even from way back in the pack.
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Old 06-14-2005, 03:44 AM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
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Default RE:US Open

As I understand it, the course is a few feet more narrow, but the first five yards of the rough is cut fairly short, 1 1/2 inches, in effect making Pinehurst wider and more forgiving. Nevertheless, the greens are somewhat impossible, in that the turtleback shapes make it extremely hard to hold. Two putt, take your par, and move on, and hope to get a lucky birdie or two. This is the one tourney, the one and only, where the pros play exactly like the weekend warriors. Play for pars and be happy to get them. Shooting 5 under here is akin to shooting 10 under anywhere else. Off the tee will be critical, the iron game will be critical, on and around the green is critical too. In other words, the best all-around golfer will win, provided he gets some bounces.

I took Harrington to win 3 months ago, at 26-1. Don't ask me why, I can't remember. He's like 40-1 now. I give him little chance, with his sick dad and recent play. I'm going to get someone else soon, not decided yet. Last week I opened an acccount at GolfingGods, I'm starting to lose it. I have 4 accounts now. Down the slippery slope to Hell I guess.

Clarke is out this week. Sick wife.
Tiger is in, in the trees and out of contention. He already won his major for this year so the pressure is off.
Vijay is lost in space, the gap between his ears. He's not that young either.
Els shot his wad last week, I think he's out.
Harrington please don't embarrass me.
Garcia, nope.
Di Marco maybe, not likely.
Love, no.
Goosen, running with the backmarkers.
Toms, can't think of anything bad to say about him. Has game.
Sabbatini, Pampling, and Van Pelt, would not surprise me a bit.
Funk, the real joker in this deck.

I'll post my bets later. I lost some last week, and Eaks broke my heart. GL guys.
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Old 06-14-2005, 06:05 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE: US Open

Since I have strong negative opinions about the big 5 am really spreading here in the outrights.

Of the big 5 put a small play in on Ernie that will ensure a small profit if he wins. But other than that going against the big names. Some of the below guys will seem like stretches I know. But dont forget some are triple digit odds.

Will break it down into the "second tier" and bombers. Second tier are the mid priced guys, names that are picked to win by many, but arent the big five

Second Tier

DiMarco- Can be erratic off the tee and that scares me here. Has the iron game though
Scott- Guy is going to break through in one of these majors soon. Guy has all the tools
Toms- Probably my top pick. Everything about his game says US Open.

Bombers

Maggert- Great Open track record.
Howelll III- Has shown nothing in a long while. Not a rationale pick but who knows
Poulter- Guy impressed me during the Match Play.
Purdy- Hasnt done much since his win, but guy can hit fairways all day long.
Maryuma- Played great last year, been playing well basically all year. Hidden good form.


One thing to keep in mind, is that the US Open is very unique. The British Open has taken some bashing lately because of the 'caliber" of its winners. But that used to be the case with the US Open. There are several guys whose only major is a US Open, and even some of the multiple major guys only have US Open majors. Takes a great deal of patience and accuracy. Which is why to me Tiger and Phil have no chance based on their current form

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Old 06-15-2005, 12:29 AM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
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Default RE:US Open

I also took Toms 1 unit 23-1, and Carl Pettersson half unit 401-1.

Match-ups are

Toms over Scott -105
Scott over Garcia -120
Jimenez over Bjorn -105
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Old 06-15-2005, 12:30 AM
BuzzRavanaugh BuzzRavanaugh is offline
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Default RE:US Open

Tommyjay- I think Funk is a great play. He played great last year and then faltered on the last day. I am playing him in the market w/o the Big Four.

I like Els more and more- I think on Sunday it comes down to Els and Tiger with maybe Phil in there until he spits the bit.
__________________
Buzz, I dont go to games. I buy all the Directv packages and watch them from the comfort of my own home! I dont like listening to all the fans nonsense at games! I pay for blonde women to come over and have sex with my hispanic hottie maid, and sometimes I get involved to make it a threesome! I like to lay in my pool during the day sipping on drinks that have umbrellas!

Luke M
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  #9 (permalink)  
Old 06-15-2005, 03:39 PM
buckeye buckeye is offline
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Default RE:US Open

adding
Verplank -200 to make cut

Everyone is predicting HIGH HIGH scores which makes my under 65.5 look pretty bad right now but it seems like EVERY OPEN they say that and then some rain comes and it isn't quite so ominous. With the heat and humidity we've had recently I was banking on some showers to cool it off a bit and soften the greens - we'll see. I also think the dramatic upswing in equipment and length, since 99, without a corresponding great lengthening of the course ( added like 100 yards whereas the top pros are hitting it 20+ yards farther than they did in 99 ) may lead to better scoring. Bombers like Tiger and Phil are talking about letting it rip off the tee and taking their chances with the rough with wedges in - I doubt anyone was thinking that in 99. It just depends on how hard the greens are and how ridiculous they set the pins. Several shot 67 in 99, so I still think there is a 50-50 shot someone shoots 65. Donald said he had 70 yesterday in practice.

Other longshots on my radar that I won't likely pulled the trigger on - so they aren't plays - are Maggert T10 ( his odds for this prop are way lower than expected [as low as +450 ] so it seems I'm not the only one who was shopping for it - did play very very tiny T4 @ 37.5-1 on him which immediately fell to 30-1 LOL), O'Hern T10 ( Stanley loves his scrambling but I don't fancy a rookie to the Open experience placing real high up - he could finish decent though so T10 isn't out of the question ), Cabrera ( this is the one Euro I may still back as he has made the cut in all 5 Opens he's played - the last 5 - and he is VERY hot on that tour coming off 1st and 3rd finishes, I did back him in some group props and still considering T10 on him ). Medium shots I like that also offer no value, as the odds are paltry, are Verplank, Leonard and DiMarco - though they are all a bit mercurial and it depends on which side of them shows up this week - their straight hitting scrambling side or their NOT side.

GL2ALL
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Old 06-15-2005, 04:17 PM
snowman snowman is offline
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Default RE:US Open

toms wife is about to give birth. rumor is that if she has the child, he will leave.
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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 06-15-2005, 06:20 PM
Louis Cypher Louis Cypher is offline
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Default RE:US Open

Nice info Snowman!

LC
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 06-15-2005, 09:05 PM
snowman snowman is offline
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Default RE: US Open

thanks L.C.
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 06-16-2005, 12:56 AM
BuzzRavanaugh BuzzRavanaugh is offline
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Default RE:US Open

Quote:
Originally posted by: snowman
toms wife is about to give birth. rumor is that if she has the child, he will leave.
That is exactly what happened to Mickelson at Pinehurst.

Guys I am so confused and my betting shows it. I am betting a nickel on outrights- for every 100 dollars I bet the following all at golfinggods.com:

50 Ernie Els 11/1- I just think he might fire this week.
20 Tiger Woods 6/1- His kind of course
10 Phil Mickelson 9/1- Hate his form but I bet he likes this golf course
5 Adam Scott 26/1- I think he is the poor man's Tiger Woods- back when Woods was dominant
5 John Daly 151/1- Great short game
4 Tom Pernice 201/1- Playing very well right now and can putt
2 Ryan Moore 201/1- Last amateur tournament game is so solid
2 Fred Funk- Hits it straight and has a terrific short game (it was a toss up between Funk and K Perry)
1 Casey Wittenberg 501/1- terrific short game and hits it straight
1 Jim Benepe 1001/1- has actually played well in US Opens and is an old buddy

Will make some top 5 bets on Adam Scott, Ernie Els, Retief Goosen, John Daly and probably David Toms.

Good luck guys.

__________________
Buzz, I dont go to games. I buy all the Directv packages and watch them from the comfort of my own home! I dont like listening to all the fans nonsense at games! I pay for blonde women to come over and have sex with my hispanic hottie maid, and sometimes I get involved to make it a threesome! I like to lay in my pool during the day sipping on drinks that have umbrellas!

Luke M
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  #14 (permalink)  
Old 06-16-2005, 02:25 AM
namathfan namathfan is offline
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Default RE:US Open

My want to check on the Toms' info. I thought I read they have a c section scheduled fo after the Open.
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Old 06-16-2005, 02:33 AM
toto toto is offline
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Default RE:US Open

Hi Buzz, I have 30 matchups to look at. What intriges me is the
linemaker has Furyk in 4 of these vs. VJ, Goose, Garcia and Toms
all small odds, looks like he thinks $$$ will be against Furyk. I'me
taking Furyk in all 4, think he knows something? Call me again, I
didn't give you my cell # or get yout new #. GL Your ole pards, Toto
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  #16 (permalink)  
Old 06-16-2005, 03:39 AM
snowman snowman is offline
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Default RE: US Open

thanks namathfan., my info could be out dated. gl everyone
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  #17 (permalink)  
Old 06-16-2005, 04:01 AM
buckeye buckeye is offline
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Default RE:US Open

Surprisingly found Leonard+104vsCink @WSEX as it had moved to -120 elsewhere. Also saw un65.5 @+142 Pinn earlier. Interesting that MaggertT4dropped all the way down to 12-1 so lots must be backing him big time this week!

GL2ALL
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Old 06-16-2005, 04:34 AM
Bitter Bruin Bitter Bruin is offline
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Default RE:US Open

Been awhile since I played (since the Master's when I got my ass handed to me)...see a lot of value out here this week. As has been covered extensively here, premium on driving accuracy and short game. Also think the mental part is very large...someone strong-willed can overcome an average game here.

Here is what I have thus far:

Outrights - split a unit up as follows

E. Els +1200 - 20%
L. Donald +2800 - 15%
R. Goosen +1800 - 20%
A. Scott +2800 - 20%
D. Toms +2300 - 15%
S. Maruyama +120000 - 10%

Matchups for all 4 days:

Donald -125 over DiMarco - 1 unit
Toms +100 over Garcia - 1 unit
Scott -130 over Perry - 2 units
Scott +105 over Garcia - 1 unit
Furyk +133 over Singh - 1 unit
Maggert -140 over Weir - 2 units - may add to this one
Couples -126 over Howell III - 2 units

Props

Singh Over 7.5 place -115 - 4 units

GLTA
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Old 06-16-2005, 10:30 AM
h_upmann h_upmann is offline
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Default RE: US Open

C. DiMarco.

to win: .4 units @ 45-1 (Bet365)
top five: 1 unit @ about 10-1 (Betfair)
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