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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 05-15-2005, 04:59 PM
mr_heem mr_heem is offline
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Default Live betting at 15-cents wide - let's see who's sharp


Hey guys... the golf forum is definitely picking up steam recently - enjoy reading the analysis from Buzz, Tommy, Aly, Buckeye and the rest...
especially all the speculation about who's sharp. (Some guy who deals a 30-cent line? No disrespect, but not likely.)

So let me add in my contribution, just to crank things up a bit:

I'll make a live market on the final round at the Nelson, fifteen cents wide and at least a nickel up, and anyone who's feeling Sharp (or at least lucky) is welcome to take me on. (I'll be over at the new exchange, obviously - so if you're feeling real sporty, feel free to put up some competing pricing for us to shoot at.)

If you think a 30-cent matchbet is acceptable, then a 15-cent interactive should be downright irresistible. Bring money. And good luck.

- The Heem









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Old 05-16-2005, 05:18 PM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
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Default RE:Live betting at 15-cents wide - let's see who's sharp

I'm interested, but I'm pretty sure I'm not funded in your book. Whichever it is.
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Old 05-18-2005, 08:35 PM
mr_heem mr_heem is offline
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Default RE:Live betting at 15-cents wide - let's see who's sharp


Sorry, don't have a book. Was talking about the new Betfair-style exchange -- have just started playing the markets there, and it's very sweet -- but maybe it's still a word-of-mouth thing (like Pinnacle's phone number, or whatever).

Ask around, and maybe someone can give you directions...

Good luck w/the Colonial.

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Old 05-18-2005, 09:27 PM
valueman valueman is offline
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Default RE:Live betting at 15-cents wide - let's see who's sharp

The in running match ups at Betfair are dead in terms of liquidity. If you are putting up liquidity there you better make sure you have accurate real time feeds as there are people who bet there that are way ahead of the TV feeds.

Generally Betfair is only good for the outrights before the start and between rounds. Unless you are ahead in terms of information feeds you will get picked of by the sharks. Still a must have book if not US.
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Old 05-20-2005, 11:18 AM
mr_heem mr_heem is offline
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Default RE:Live betting at 15-cents wide - let's see who's sharp


"Must have" is an understatement - Betfair is worth more than access to the top five UK books combined, easily.

The idea that it's useful for golf only between rounds is way off, to my mind - though if you're relying on the UK TV feeds, it might be true.

The only reason I don't put up a lot of liquidity there for in-running is because teh interface is a pain in the a-- for two-way markets: you've got to manage both sides separately, and it's just not worth the hassle.

That's why I've been getting into this Matchbo*k thing in a big way: you can just bang in a fair value, and it submits both legs of the offer at whatever vig you want. It's about a dozen times easier to deal with than Betfair.

I'll be fifteen cents wide for the Colonial, again, all weekend (during US TV coverage)... bring money.
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Old 05-20-2005, 05:10 PM
valueman valueman is offline
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Default RE:Live betting at 15-cents wide - let's see who's sharp

mr heem - again i'll reiterate - if you are believing that US coverage is "Live" or even ahead of UK coverage you are sadly mistaken. I've tested the latency between both and more often than not UK coverage is ahead of US because of the fewer advertisement breaks and the fact sky sports often have their own cameras out there for the weekend - especially big events.

Further there are a group of very sharp people who seem to be getting information ahead of either TV feed - Tiger's odds for instance dropped sharply "before" his chip on the 16th at Augusta. Maybe you are one of them and therefore are so keen to be laying these bets.
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Old 05-20-2005, 08:31 PM
mr_heem mr_heem is offline
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Default RE:Live betting at 15-cents wide - let's see who's sharp


Well gee, Value - you can keep saying it, but that don't make it right.

In fact, for someone who's "tested latency" extensively and like to "reiterate" stuff, you seem - no offense - kinda clueless:

Sky relies exclusively on the US feed for everything except post-round interviews w/Darren Clarke and other "color" bits. They don't get US feeds during US commercials. That's what David Livingstone means every single time he goes, "Well, our American colleagues have gone to commericial..." and they cut back to the Sky studio.

The Betfair boards are full of plenty of chatter about the US feed, but you'll struggle to ever find anyone talking about how the UK feed gets "ahead" of the US feed. It doesn't happen, except when the BBC gets the British Open. The normal lag is variable, from trivial to many, many seconds (I check it every week) - and it has cut into Betfair liquidity, for sure.

There's a lot of sizeable price jumps on Sunday, however, that have nothing whatever to do w/info lags or whatever - it's just the market taking a couple of hops to settle on a rough price after a major event. There's no Don Best screen for live golf, and pricing is all over the map at times. (Damned if I can remember what the timing sequence was on Tiger's chip, but there was no Shotlink, so maybe it just hit a live scoring board a few secs early... dunno.)

Hell, I don't even know if a single guy CAN make a continuous 15-cent market on golf and not get torn up. I'm willing to give it a shot though - and to eat crow (and lose hard) if I can't. Can't ask for more than that, I'd have thought. I mean seriously, what I am supposed to do: fake numbers hole after hole, and hope for a miracle chip-in that only I know about?

But if you think that's such easy money (cause I'm sitting in the CBS production truck, or some damned thing), then let's flip it around: YOU make the market, and just take down all your prices anytime you think the Secret Information Fairies are about to start flitting around. I'll bet into your prices, straight up.

Deal? Yeah, that's what I thought... easier to just back away in both directions, eh?

I'm willing to put my money, and pride, on the line to try to help create a golf-market alternative to Betfair, for North American bettors who can't use it. If you want to sit on the beach and mutter about "sharks in the water", well... we've all got a role to play.
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Old 05-20-2005, 08:40 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE: Live betting at 15-cents wide - let's see who's sharp

Mr Heem, your continued insistence that people bet you head to head is getting bizarre
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Old 05-20-2005, 08:52 PM
mr_heem mr_heem is offline
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Default RE:Live betting at 15-cents wide - let's see who's sharp

Haha... point taken. Sort of. Is it "bizarre" when Pinnacle uses a tight line as a means of betting head to head? We're pretty much all over that. So how different is it to extend that into markets they don't cover?

Of course, I definitely wouldn't want to get anyone riled up and emotional before betting. That would be wrong.


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Old 05-21-2005, 01:28 AM
valueman valueman is offline
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Default RE:Live betting at 15-cents wide - let's see who's sharp

Mr Heem - are you suggesting that sky don't have their own cameras at some events - "i said "some of the bigger events".

Secondly for someone who claims to have just started betting at exchanges you certainly seem to know a lot about what goes on there. I will tell you that i am based in canada and compare feeds with people working in the industry back in the UK and the pics are not always the same on the weekends. If Sky is relying solely on the US networks then obviously they are going to be slightly behind but this is not always the case.

Take it as gospel that people are getting info ahead of all the feeds - whether they are at the course and betting thru PDA'a etc - i can't say but fact is fact there are significant price changes especially on Sunday "before" 25 foot putts drop in.

I would broker the thought that you are one of the lucky few who are priveledged to have this info - good luck to you but don't go around trying to act smart thinking you are doing people a favour when you are just trying to ***** them.
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