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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 05-02-2005, 06:38 PM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
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Default Wachovia Championship

We are a third of the way through this season, and it's time to reflect. First and foremost, this year ain't last year. Last year I clobbered my 3 bookmakers, SIA, Pinny, and WSEX. I had something like 15 of 16 winning weeks to start the season, and did well for the entire schedule. Not greedy, and new to the offshores, plus leery of the whole deal, I "pocketed" a few dimes. I never took any withdrawls, just left the money in my accounts. I don't understand why people jump in and out of books. I want to be in the game, so I just leave it in.

YTD, so far, a bright shining loss of 895 bucks. Half of which is from the outrights, record 0-15 this year. I had 3 outright winners by this time last season, all of which paid 20-1 or more. The tourney winners accounted for half of last years profits. I usually pick just 1 golfer to win, I occasionally get a second at WSEX during the 2nd round if my main pick tanks really hard. I picked up 1 winner that way a few weeks back, the Funk win. But it doesn't count toward a real pick outright.

Last year, I would tote up the expected win or loss after the third round. If I needed a winner in a 4th round daily, to record a winning week, I bet it. I almost always won, keeping the streak alive. This tactic is not working this year, and I've abandoned the practice, as it has been making the losses larger.

Things I've noticed from 2 years of wagering.

The guys that made you money last year, won't this year.
The 6 weeks off-season over the Holidays, changes everything.
1 year older for a 40-plus golfer, is huge.
The under the radar guys are the key to success.
It's damn near impossible to hdcp. a medium to longshot winner. It takes luck.
Many or all golfers care not a whit about us gamblers.
The Nationwide tour grads are better and try harder than veteran journeymen.
Golf is the most fun thing to bet on.
DL3 for the most part, is done.
Same with Couples.
Same with Jay Haas.
Pampling and Van Pelt made me a ton last year, they are killing me now.
Betting against a golfer, works.
Golf is too slow for interactives.
I miss competitive golf, I miss duck season more.

I realize this post has nothing to do with the Wachovia, next post will, I promise.




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Old 05-02-2005, 07:13 PM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
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Default RE:Wachovia Championship

First off, thanks to Buzz for the mention on his list. It made me feel good. Second, thanks to buckeye for the heads up on Glover. Under the radar is right, even under my radar, and that's hard to do.

The Wachovia is a new tournament, played only twice before, on a course rarely seen by the pros. There are no past performances to draw on, no big history to repeat. The 2003 winner, Toms, missed the cut last year. The 2004 winner, Sindelar, sheesh, I was shocked. The big 5, is this week the big 3, missing the two South African boys. Tiger, Mick, and Vijay are of course the favs. I see this week as a free-for-all, anyone can win.

I factored in a few things this week, knowing that -12 will win this deal. This is a narrow, long course, with a lot of trees lining a narrow rough. Jerk your drive, and you're looking at a bogey or at least a bigtime scramble. 5 holes on the back have water on the left, hitting to the right, but not in the trees, will be good. This fits Mick's game, being a lefty and all. The par 5's are key. Oberholser, the playoff loser, was 10 under for the 5's, in an 11 under tie for first. Mick was 9 under, Tiger -4, Glover -6. 25th place here pays over 50 thousand, so the young lions can smell the meat, they will play their hearts out. The par 5 15th is an automatic birdie for everyone, a lot of eagles happen too.

Two things different for me this week, first I'm taking Mick at 8.5 for 1. I like longer odds and never bet on the big 3 guys, but this looks like Phil's tourney to lose. I think his mother designed this course. Second, I have an alternate pick, Glover, buckeye's guy, EW 81-1. I'll post my other stuff later. GL.
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Old 05-03-2005, 10:58 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE:Wachovia Championship

Really like Phil this week. Also taking positions on Glover, Joe Oglivie and Tim Clark
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Old 05-03-2005, 11:07 PM
BuzzRavanaugh BuzzRavanaugh is offline
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Default RE:Wachovia Championship

Tommyjay-

I am having a great year buoyed my outright picks. What I am doing is finding my outright picks and then betting them in match ups that I like.

Rather than trying to handicap the whole field I have a list of guys that I want to play on and if I can find one that is not playing well I have a play. In addition if I have a good player and take that player in a couple of different match ups I have a little hedge going.

I am not a fan of WSEX interactives for golf. I do think its too slow moving and I never think you get the full value of staying on top of the sport because the market or event is paused non stop. I have eliminated that aspect of my wagering and look for outrights or day match ups instead.
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Buzz, I dont go to games. I buy all the Directv packages and watch them from the comfort of my own home! I dont like listening to all the fans nonsense at games! I pay for blonde women to come over and have sex with my hispanic hottie maid, and sometimes I get involved to make it a threesome! I like to lay in my pool during the day sipping on drinks that have umbrellas!

Luke M
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Old 05-03-2005, 11:44 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE:Wachovia Championship

I know putting in interactives on Thursday and Friday can be frustrating. With so many golfers out there and the commercials and stuff, but never have a problem on the weekend. They are mostly just paused during commercial breaks or when the ball is in mid flight.

They had DiMarco way too high for most of last week. There was great value in going against him
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Old 05-04-2005, 12:54 AM
buckeye buckeye is offline
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Default RE:Wachovia Championship

GL with Glover guys but I'm jumping off that train. He felt the heat last weekend and crumbled a bit so he may be due for a letdown. Coupled with this being a MUCH STRONGER field and I just don't see much value out there in futures. I am taking a very small bite of Maggert 25-1 PLACE ONLY though. Only matchup I really like so far is Rose-135vPoulter.

GL2ALL, I'll be rooting for Glover anyway for u guys. He did finish 10th here last year so he must like the course.
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Old 05-04-2005, 05:57 PM
BuzzRavanaugh BuzzRavanaugh is offline
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Default RE: Wachovia Championship

Think this tournament is kind of wide open though the chalk scares me to death.

I have taken a decent outright on David Toms-- look for him to spring back to life in a place he likes to play. His odds at golfinggods is 41/1

Haven't looked at match ups yet.
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Buzz, I dont go to games. I buy all the Directv packages and watch them from the comfort of my own home! I dont like listening to all the fans nonsense at games! I pay for blonde women to come over and have sex with my hispanic hottie maid, and sometimes I get involved to make it a threesome! I like to lay in my pool during the day sipping on drinks that have umbrellas!

Luke M
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Old 05-04-2005, 07:21 PM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
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Default RE:Wachovia Championship

OK, I'll go first. Double units this week all around. I'm not chasing, I feel I've got 'em covered this week. I went for driving accuracy and consistancy, plus playing well recently.

B. Davis over Rose -107 Was going to go Rose on feel, checked out all the stats and changed sides.
Funk over Roberts +101 Funk will keep it in play, Roberts may not.
Glover over Olgilvie +110 8th in driving accuracy versus 92nd. Free money, or good bet at least.

One round 1 pick

Furyk over J. Haas -120 nothing from Haas this year at all.
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Old 05-05-2005, 02:41 PM
BuzzRavanaugh BuzzRavanaugh is offline
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Default RE:Wachovia Championship

God I am sorry I missed the Furyk pick-- he is kicking it right now. Tommyjay is sharper than shit.
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Buzz, I dont go to games. I buy all the Directv packages and watch them from the comfort of my own home! I dont like listening to all the fans nonsense at games! I pay for blonde women to come over and have sex with my hispanic hottie maid, and sometimes I get involved to make it a threesome! I like to lay in my pool during the day sipping on drinks that have umbrellas!

Luke M
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Old 05-05-2005, 10:36 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE:Wachovia Championship

Sergio and Furyk will be tough here. Can get Furyk at 6 now if you want.

VJ is

I grabbed some Sergios last night at 3, debating on selling. Will probably hold even though he often seems to follow a stellar round with a poor one. Phil is in good shape.

Cant believe Tiger is offered at 32 and VJ at 12. They both shot the same score and to me have an equal chance. Gun to my head and I would say VJ finishes with a lower score. Tiger Mania creates amazing value
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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 05-06-2005, 02:13 PM
BuzzRavanaugh BuzzRavanaugh is offline
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Default RE:Wachovia Championship

Decent first round by Ben Curtis, thumbs up.
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Buzz, I dont go to games. I buy all the Directv packages and watch them from the comfort of my own home! I dont like listening to all the fans nonsense at games! I pay for blonde women to come over and have sex with my hispanic hottie maid, and sometimes I get involved to make it a threesome! I like to lay in my pool during the day sipping on drinks that have umbrellas!

Luke M
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Old 05-06-2005, 02:56 PM
buckeye buckeye is offline
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Default RE:Wachovia Championship

I'm glad I only took a small bite on Maggert. After a solid 1st where he was T6 and in position at -3, he blew out a tire today and is +9, OUCH.

I just don't feel there is much value in futures in a very strong field event like this one - typically. The chalk is underpriced and the dogs are hard pressed to nudge their way into the money spots.

Looks like my matchup will go as planned though as Poulter looks a decent chance to miss the cut at +5 and Rose is safe at even.

For those on Glover-Ogilvie, Joe also blew out a tire today so that one is lookin good!

GL2ALL
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Old 05-06-2005, 03:13 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE:Wachovia Championship

buckeye, I think the prescence of Tiger always creates value. Especially when there is a perception (wrong in my opinion) that Tiger is "back". Look at the huge disparity between him and Singh last night. Ridiculous. Singh has been the better player for two years now.
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Old 05-06-2005, 06:04 PM
buckeye buckeye is offline
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Default RE:Wachovia Championship

When I say futures I don't mean in-progress betting or round by round where I agree there can be some disparity due to the Tiger factor. But in pre-tee-off future markets I don't see it as that out of whack or dictated by him anymore.

The only thing I'll say about Tiger is that I don't know if he is "approaching" being back or in his heyday form but I think many golf bettors have been bitten fading him over the years - far more have been hurt fading him than backing him over the years - IMO. I am not that INTO the progressive markets and I'm not talking about those but just in matchup and futures betting it has been historically unwise to fade him. Last year was the exception and maybe he will slump again this year ( relatively speaking ). I understand the in=progress to be almost the opposite but I have not gotten into them enough to comment!

The problem now is that the BIG4+1, or whatever, are typically not good values in futures but they are so dominant as a group that they kill my PLACE BETTING ON VALUE LONGSHOTS by crowding the top 5 spots so often.

I'm stuck at work and can't watch it, but there seem to be a lot of guys FALLING APART at the Wachovia. Must be bad weather or something as lots of guys are WAY over par today. A 70 seems like it will vault you way up the leaderboard today!
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Old 05-06-2005, 08:06 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE:Wachovia Championship

There has been tremendous value fading Tiger the past few years in interactives.

Doesnt mean you fade him everytime, but he still gets way overpriced when he is on borderline contention.

VJ has been the one that has killed many an in progress player. Including myself.

My greatest runs at interactives are mostly due to Tiger fading. On the contrary many of my heart breaking close finishes have been the result of VJ or even Ernie winning. The disparity in pricing with VJ and Tiger yesterday was a great example.
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Old 05-07-2005, 02:28 AM
Tommyjay Tommyjay is offline
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Default RE:Wachovia Championship

It wasn't pretty, but it worked out good for me.I'm owed a few from some bad beats I've taken this year. Double points and 3 of 4, nice profit. I'm quitting this one while I'm ahead. Working on next week already.
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Old 05-07-2005, 06:15 PM
BuzzRavanaugh BuzzRavanaugh is offline
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Default RE:Wachovia Championship

I think buckeye some good observations on the big 4- I usually don't handicap the match ups and they can squeeze you out of the top 5.
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Buzz, I dont go to games. I buy all the Directv packages and watch them from the comfort of my own home! I dont like listening to all the fans nonsense at games! I pay for blonde women to come over and have sex with my hispanic hottie maid, and sometimes I get involved to make it a threesome! I like to lay in my pool during the day sipping on drinks that have umbrellas!

Luke M
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  #18 (permalink)  
Old 05-07-2005, 08:16 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE:Wachovia Championship

Sitting on a bunch of Sergios and Furyks now. With a handful of Singhs as well. Couldnt be in better position. Not counting my money yet though. Sergio does look awesome.
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Old 05-07-2005, 08:17 PM
alysheba88 alysheba88 is offline
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Default RE:Wachovia Championship

Tiger is yelling fore virtually every hole. His swing still has major major problems. Like the Yankees people dont want to see it.

Not tooting my own horn. Just saying there is going to be some real nice money to be made fading Tiger in the next few months. Any tourney he is in creates value on the others.
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